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by winston » Wed Jul 17, 2024 9:31 pm
For the first time all year, the McClellan Oscillators are screaming “CAUTION!”
These indicators are telling us the market is vulnerable to a short-term pullback. Traders will likely have a better opportunity to buy stocks in the days ahead than they do right now.
by winston » Thu Jul 18, 2024 10:18 am
by winston » Fri Jul 19, 2024 2:10 pm
The betting right now is a summer slump is here, but history suggests a rally in the fall. Why? Election years are often good for stocks.
The RSI for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100, had been hovering at or near 80 for the first seven days of July.
That second bounce. At some point, a stock, an index or an ETF hits what seems to be a bottom and bounces up. Wait before jumping in. Often, your target falls back after that initial bounce loses strength. The second bounce is the confirmation of a real bounce.
CNN Fear and Greed Index.
CBOE Volatility Index.
50-day moving average.
Put-call ratios. A reading of 0.7 is considered the neutral level. Below 0.7 is an optimism signal.
by winston » Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:56 pm
Don’t take the recent surge in volatility as a reason to walk away from the table.
The market may be showing signs of fear, but you don’t have to.
The data shows this bull market is still in full force. That’s why we want to be invested today.
by winston » Wed Jul 24, 2024 9:39 pm
Maybe this time the Fed will be on the ball and cut rates before it’s too late to avoid a recession. Or maybe this time is simply different.
But don’t think that rate cuts automatically translate to higher stock prices.
As history shows us, some of the worst bear markets in history have happened as the Fed reduces rates…
by winston » Fri Jul 26, 2024 3:22 pm
Computer-driven macro hedge fund strategies on Wednesday sold $20 billion in equities and are set to shed at least more $25 billion over the next week after the stock rout, in one of the largest risk-unwinding events in a decade.
If volatility persists in the coming days, the sell-off would rapidly increase.
An additional 1% day-drop in global equities could spark sales of $35 billion and macro hedge funds could dump up to $110 billion in a 3% day fall.
Portfolio managers mostly sold shares in the information technology, consumer staples and material sectors.
by winston » Mon Jul 29, 2024 9:13 pm
No matter what’s in store for the market over the short term, its long-term potential is outstanding.
To minimize risk and maximize your earnings, it’s wise to stay in the market for as long as possible — even throughout the tough times.
Nobody knows what the stock market’s short-term future holds but if history shows us anything, it’s that its long-term potential is incredibly promising.
By investing in the right places and keeping a long-term outlook, what happens in the coming days, weeks, or months won’t matter as much.
by winston » Sat Aug 17, 2024 4:45 pm
1. Volatility Index
2. USD/JPY's Recent Price Action
3. USD/CAD's Uptrend
4. USD/MXN
by winston » Tue Aug 20, 2024 8:54 am
An average investor loses out on as much as 2.6 per cent in annual gains by straying from a buy-and-hold strategy.
Investors who sell during periods of volatility often end up sitting in cash and missing out on market rebounds.
“If you get out when the market is down 10 per cent, it’s likely you won’t benefit from the bounce and the recovery”.
“Often you find that once you get back into the market it’s too late".
The lowest gap observed was in allocation funds, such as target-date funds that automatically rebalance, removing yet another opportunity to mistime a market move.
by winston » Tue Aug 27, 2024 8:14 pm
If you missed the chance to buy the dip, don’t lose heart.
The bull market is still intact. If you’re not long stocks already, I urge you to get on board… because history shows we should expect more outperformance from here.
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