Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:04 am

What Stock Market Capitulation Really Means

Capitulation is the final selling in a bear market where even the most ardent bulls give up.

They stop trying to pick the bottom while emotions everywhere run so high that people want to sell everything without regard to price.

We can tell when the market experiences capitulation because prices of just about every stock tumble together on soaring volume.

Stocks can languish at low levels for weeks and months before a new bull market can begin. That’s why we call it capitulation.

One way to go is to take smaller bites in a market that has already shown capitulation but has not really established any sort of bullish trend.




Source: Money Morning

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/03/29/ ... lly-means/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:48 am

Stocks Can Continue to Fall

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

The markets only bottomed once people forgot about them… once people stopped talking about the financial crisis with their friends… once regular folks stopped talking about getting back into stocks (or getting in for the first time).

In short, the bottom only happened once people gave up.

The stock market will not bottom when it is all over the mainstream news.


Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/03/31/ ... e-to-fall/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:52 am

History Tells Us Now is the Time to Buy

by Michael Foster

It took nearly a thousand days for the market to bottom in 1929 and both 2000 and 2007’s bear markets ran long, too.

The lesson is clear: when a market crash is caused by a bubble, the recovery will take longer.

But in periods like now, where the pullback is caused by a sudden shock from outside, recoveries tend to be much faster.


Source: Contrarian Outlook

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/03/31/ ... me-to-buy/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby investar » Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:37 am

• An Easter Rabbit Bubble

• Factors in Pandemics

• Government Bonds & Elections

• Long-Run Junk Bond Returns

• Investing in Low Growth Economies


https://investoramnesia.com/2020/04/12/ ... o-effects/
investar
Boss' Left Hand Person
 
Posts: 722
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:59 pm

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:29 pm

What we can learn from the 17 stock market crashes since 1870

by Emily McCormick

On average, stocks have entered bear markets about every nine years, he said.

Based on his data, stocks took an average of about 25 months to drop to a trough from a recent high.

From the market bottom, stocks then averaged nearly 30 months to return back to at least the previous peak, designating a recovery.


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-we- ... 48079.html
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:17 pm

How to Spot a Bubble

by Nicholas Vardy

1) Uncertainty Around the Innovation
2) Large Numbers of Novice Investors
3) The Opportunity to Invest in "Pure Play" Firms
4) A Compelling Story

Source: The Oxford Club
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:32 pm

Will the Stock Market Crash Again in 2021?

by Chris Hogan

Reasons to Feel Cautious About the Stock Market in 2021:

1. COVID-19: The coronavirus isn’t going anywhere, and new strains are developing.
2. Unemployment: Although we’ve added millions of jobs since the country was hit hard in 2020, we’re still experiencing significant unemployment numbers.
3. Inflation: Those stimulus checks come at a cost. With increased government spending, we’ll probably see an increase in inflation, which could lead to investors pulling back.


What to Do During a Stock Market Crash
1. Refuse to panic.
2. Go into conserve mode.
3. Follow the proven plan.
4. If you’re investing, stay invested.


https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/stock-m ... 0goes%20up.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

Postby winston » Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:47 pm

The Two Pins That Will Pop The Stock Market Bubble

by Lance Roberts

Summary

If market bubbles are about "psychology," as represented by investors' herding behavior, then price and valuations reflect that psychology.

The Federal Reserve has consistently argued that monetary policy is a function of their two mandates: full employment and price stability.

Excessive bullish optimism is always eventually met with disappointment.

Bubbles can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise.

Notice that except for only 1929, 2000, and 2007, every other major market crash occurred with valuations at levels lower than they are currently.

Secondly, all market crashes, which resulted from the preceding bubble, have been the result of things unrelated to valuation levels. Those catalysts have ranged from liquidity issues to government actions, monetary policy mistakes, recessions, or inflationary spikes. Those events were the catalyst, or trigger, that started the "reversion in sentiment" by investors.

There are currently two "pins" that could pop the current market bubble:0
1. The Inflation Pin
2. The Interest Rate Pin


Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/440742 ... king_alpha
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 110553
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Previous

Return to Other Investment Instruments & Ideas

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

cron