Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Aug 26, 2020 2:09 pm

A 'double-dip' recession looms large — here's what this economist predicts
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-double ... 19912.html



Concern grows over potential for double-dip recession
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LBWU-6tYKE
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Aug 29, 2020 4:13 pm

U.S. tech stocks are now worth more than the entire European stock market
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech ... arket.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:40 pm

Here’s what could trigger more stock market pullbacks this year, says Schwab trading pro

by Barbara Kollmeyer

A 2%-3% decline sometime in the next couple of weeks wouldn’t be at all surprising to me.

When those smallish pullbacks come along, though, he advises against panic (he urged no panic in early March too), saying “they will be and should be used as buying opportunities.”

That is because there is nowhere else for investors to put their money as any Federal Reserve interest rate increase is years out.

1. Technical. One potential correction trigger is technical, as he says 2020 has been closely tracking the action in 2009.

2. Earnings. A “substantial pullback in earnings could also trigger a pullback,” he said, noting that second-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share came in far better than expected.

3. Covid19. Frederick is watching the coronavirus pandemic as a potential trigger, with schools opening across the country and the potential for a dramatic uptick in the case count spooking markets.

4. China Trade War. Trade issues with China shouldn’t be dismissed.

5. Unemployment Stimulus. Another stick of dynamite for stocks is continued wrangling over enhanced unemployment benefits in the U.S.


Source: MarketWatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:11 am

5 Reasons A Stock Correction May Be Imminent

by Eric Parnell

Summary

The S&P 500 Index looks strong, but is becoming increasingly fragile.

A correction may be imminent. How far can we expect stocks to fall?

Don't fear the correction. Instead, seek to capitalize.

1. Increasingly narrow breadth
2. Growing fear
3. Historically negative real yields
4. Overstretched and overbought
5. September


Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437210 ... nt=link-10
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:43 pm

Apple more valuable than the entire FTSE 100
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53996191
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:47 am

DHS Braces For 'Potential EMP Attack' As Presidential Election Nears

by Tyler Durden

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... newsletter
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:00 pm

JPMorgan Says $200 Billion May Flow Out of Stocks This Quarter

by Joanna Ossinger

(Bloomberg) -- Pension and sovereign wealth funds are set to offload about $200 billion of equities as they rebalance their portfolios, posing a risk for global shares, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

This would be the most negative quarterly adjustment since the pandemic hit, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Tuesday.

The overall figure stems from calculations spanning U.S. defined-benefit pension portfolios, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund and Norway’s oil fund.

“This negative rebalancing flow becomes even more problematic given this month’s sharp decline in equity market depth,” they wrote in a note.

Institutions tend to adjust portfolios each quarter to maintain their target asset allocation. A gauge of global stocks has climbed about 10% since the end of June, exceeding returns from fixed income and pointing to the need for some funds to adjust their investment mix back to preferred limits.

The revision is one of many risks facing the equity market after a powerful rally from lows in March stalled this month.

Others include stretched valuations for some segments, a choppy economic recovery, potential volatility around the U.S. election and reliance on central bank support of financial markets.

Still, the JPMorgan strategists are sanguine overall on the outlook for stocks.

“For the medium to long term, we still see plenty of upside given still low overall equity positioning,” they said. “A retreat in equity and risk markets over the coming weeks would likely represent a buying opportunity.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan ... 59813.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:26 pm

Wall Street Strategist Who Called Huge 2020 Run Says Stock Market Could Be in Big Trouble

by Lee Jackson

Source: 24/7 Wall Street

https://247wallst.com/investing/2020/09 ... SEP172020a
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:24 am

30 Reasons Why Stocks May Fall Further

by Eric Parnell, CFA

Summary
Stocks are increasingly dealing with technical resistance.
Fundamental weakness is a problem that dates back long before the onset of COVID-19.
80 billion reasons why stocks will eventually bottom and rally.

Investors are well served to keep a close eye on 3,335 on the S&P 500 and 11,180 on the NASDAQ 100 in the coming days, for any decisive move below these levels could be the start of a much sharper move lower.

Corporate earnings on the S&P 500 Index peaked on a quarterly basis at $41.38 per share on an operating earnings basis and $36.36 per share on a GAAP earnings basis nearly two years ago now in 2018 Q3.

For 80 billion represents the dollar amount of Treasury purchases that the U.S. Federal Reserve is carrying out each month as part of their ongoing market rescue program in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Stocks may want to fall for fundamental reasons, but when the buyer of last resort is effectively showing up in the marketplace with what averages out to be roughly $4 billion each and every trading day, this goes a long way in soothing investor nerves and juicing stock demand.

This is particularly true when traders also know that the same Fed can turn up the dial as high as $75 billion in daily Treasury purchases or more if it so chooses if things get unstable enough.


Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437499 ... ent=link-7
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:49 pm

Will the Stock Market Crash Again? 5 Risk Factors to Watch

by John Divine

1. A "second wave" of the virus.
2. Prolonged labor market weakness.
3. Inadequate stimulus.
4. Market dynamics: high valuations and heavy concentration.
5. Political uncertainty.


Source: U.S.News & World Report

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 51722.html
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