Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:57 am

The coronavirus is bringing a painful but much-needed end to an era of economic excess
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... mic-excess
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:45 pm

Corporate credit risk heightens as coronavirus impact spreads
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Z0L9
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 am

The credit markets are signaling a bigger problem is afoot despite the Fed’s interventions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/bonds-t ... afoot.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:45 pm

The plumbing behind world's financial markets is creaking. Loudly
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2120NJ
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:15 pm

Dollar Funding Is Freezing Up, and the Fed Knows It
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... emium-asia
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:54 am

Banks are about to drown in an ocean of defaults

There’s $250 TRILLION in global debt right now-- mortgages, credit card debt, business loans, government debt, etc.

And banks own a large portion of that debt.

This virus crisis is going to trigger a wave of defaults from consumers, businesses, and even governments.

Think about it: tourism alone makes up 10% of global GDP. Revenue in that entire sector-- hotels, airlines, cruise ships, etc. has collapsed, and many of those companies aren’t going to survive.

The crash in oil prices is going to wipe out countless oil companies.

Many large retail chains, which were already struggling in the age of e-commerce, will likely declare bankruptcy.

Countless businesses around the world have ‘temporarily’ closed due to public health policies, and many of them will go out of business entirely.

MOST of these businesses owe lots of money to the banks, whether it’s a small business working line, or the $34 billion in debt that American Airlines owes. So the defaults are going to be massive.

On top of that, millions of people are going to lose their jobs and be unable to make payments on their credit card debt, auto loans, and even mortgages.

Again, there’s $250 trillion in global debt right now. Total bank capital worldwide is less than $10 trillion.

So if the coming defaults trigger a mere 4% loss in total debt, it will exceed the entirety of global bank capital.

And this doesn’t even take into consideration the impact of the $1 QUADRILLION derivatives exposure.

Source: Sovereign Man
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:31 am

One by one, things start to unravel...like falling dominoes


There's a mortgage REIT meltdown—Here's what's happening
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_zDxtQ1cLww
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:41 am

The Next Leg Down: Another Massive Decline Is Coming

by James A. Kostohryz

Summary

The next leg down in the current bear market cycle is soon at hand.

The forthcoming economic and financial crisis will be more severe, by far, than any in US economic history since the Great Depression.

During the next leg down in the ongoing bear market, the value of the S&P 500 index is likely to decline a minimum of 26% from Friday's closing level.

Extremely severe declines, surpassing those experienced during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, are a distinct possibility.

My current “optimistic case” is that the current bear market will ultimately be classified merely in the “moderate” category. In accordance with this particular analysis, this would imply a trough for the current bear market cycle in the range (S&P 500 index) of 2313 to 1955.

My current “base case” scenario (my working hypothesis) is that the current bear market will ultimately fall into the “severe” category. In this particular analysis, this would imply a trough for the current bear market cycle in the range (S&P 500 index) of 1876 to 1463.


Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433482 ... ent=link-0
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:30 pm

Coronavirus crisis impact on real estate market: Related Companies CEO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzdXSk1zp6w

Mortgage industry sounds alarm over coronavirus mortgage bailout
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2boTeRIbvZg
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