Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage Before Retirement?
by Maurie Backman
Source: The Motley Fool
http://dailytradealert.com/2018/02/04/p ... etirement/
In 1994, financial adviser William Bengen introduced the concept of the 4% rule, which found that retirees who withdrew 4% of their retirement portfolio balance, and then adjusted that dollar amount for inflation each year thereafter, would create a paycheck that lasted for 30 years.
The most significant issue with the 4% safe withdrawal rate is that there are just too many unknowns for the retiree:-
1. How long will you live?
2. How will the financial markets perform?
3. Where are interest rates and inflation rates going?
4. What will your retirement expenses actually be and how will they change over time?
5. What about your health care needs?
etc.
Financial Freedom: “An optimum financial position whereby your wealth is optimised to match your optimum financial needs and wants.”
In order to achieve financial freedom, one has to understand and manage the five essential elements of financial freedom – spending, inflation, ROI, time and saving.
No. 1: You only have so long to live well
No. 2: Someone is going to spend your money — it might as well be you
No. 3: That famous deathbed regret
No. 4: Even if you don’t quit, the fact that you can matters
No. 5: To make the memories that will last well beyond your lifetime
Retirees face four kinds of risk.
1. First is the risk that inflation will erode their nest eggs over time.
2. Second is that rising interest rates will cut into stock returns and reduce the value of their bondholdings.
3. The third risk is that not having enough growth in your portfolio will cause you to run out of money.
4. Fourth, “sequence of returns” risk — that you’ll retire just when a bear market hits, depleting the nest egg from which you calculate your withdrawals.
You counteract longevity risk by owning stock. You combat “sequence of returns” risk by owning the right amount of stock and holding plenty of cash.
Once you retire, consider keeping no more than 50% or 60% of your money invested in stocks.
Historically, he says, the average safe withdrawal rate has turned out to be about 7% and at points it has reached as high as 13%.
His calculations, incidentally, are all based on a conservative retirement portfolio where you keep 30% of your money in the S&P 500 SPX, 20% in U.S. small-caps and 50% in intermediate U.S. Treasury bonds.
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