Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:38 pm

Bonds: 2.332% versus 2.349%.

Bonds rallied for another week, making it to the 50 day SMA and the mid-October high.

Okay, serious resistance here.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:21 am

Bonds: 2.402% versus 2.34%.

Wow, from a rally over the 50 day SMA that looked solid, followed by a short test, bonds plunged Friday, gapping lower and dropping back to the 200 day SMA.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:58 pm

More Pain Ahead for China Bonds After 10-Year Yield Breaches 4%

by Tian Chen, Emma Dai, Helen Sun

China’s sovereign bond selloff escalated Tuesday, with the 10-year yield topping 4 percent for the first time in three years.

The breach is likely to sour sentiment further and lead to more losses, at least until the Chinese authorities step in, analysts said.

Here’s a breakdown of their comments:


David Qu, market economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Shanghai
“The breaking of 4 percent will have significant negative impact on sentiment. There’s a chance that we will see an extensive and quick slump in bonds in the near term.”
The selloff will spread to corporate bonds if sentiment worsens.
Worse-than-expected monetary and real economic data didn’t help bonds, which shows the market is losing confidence.
Investors should expect tougher financial regulations and tighter monetary policy next year, so bond yields will keep climbing.

Li Qilin, chief macroeconomic researcher at Lianxun Securities Co.
The breach of 4 percent may trigger a new round of stop-loss trades and drive the 10-year yield up, though it’s hard to predict how high.
The peak depends on whether authorities announce some supportive policies to calm the market and whether banks start buying bonds.
Banks don’t currently have money to allocate to sovereign bonds because they are under pressure to buy local government debt and deposit growth has been slow due to the popularity of investment alternatives such as Yue Bao.

Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong Ltd.
“If deleveraging continues as Xi stated in the party congress, then bond yields will climb further.”
“With financial firms’ liabilities shrinking, and outstanding WMPs (wealth-management products) falling, the allocation or the demand to allocate to government bonds will shrink, weighing on prices.”

Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shenzhen.
China bonds will remain weak but there may not be an acceleration of declines after the break of 4 percent, as a “mental line of defense” was broken when the yield hit 3.9 percent.
Investors were expecting it to rise to 4 percent.
“The market is still worried about tougher financial regulation and tighter year-end liquidity.”

Zhang Guoyu, analyst at Tebon Securities Co. in Shanghai
The 10-year yield should be capped at 4.1%.
Authorities aren’t likely to let the rate climb fast as that would increase corporate funding costs and put pressure on the real economy, which is against the aim for stable growth.
If there’s another round of panic selling, the central bank will likely add liquidity to the market to stabilize it and prevent a rapid pickup in yields.

Source: Bloomberg
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:32 am

This chart is sending a warning sign for the stock market

by Jeff Clark

The less-than-investment-grade sector of the corporate bond market peaked about one month ago. The decline started slowly enough. But it picked up steam last week. And now, high-yield bonds are in free fall.

It’s widely known that the action in the junk bond market tends to lead the action in stocks by anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks.


Source: Delta Report

http://thecrux.com/top-trader-a-warning ... ck-market/
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:14 pm

Bonds: 2.345% versus 2.37%.

A wild two weeks for bonds that saw bond prices end a 3 week upside move, gap sharply lower through the 50 day MA, then Wednesday gap back over the 50 day MA's.

Closed the week holding that move.

Why are yields lower if all is well and the Fed is hiking? The next two weeks will be important to see if bonds settle down and if they sell.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:54 pm

Bonds: 2.405% versus 2.434%.

Bonds surged on the week after a massive collapse the prior 1.5 weeks down to the 200 day SMA. Again bonds bounced from this level.

Source: investment House
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:26 pm

The bond market is about to do something that could spell trouble for stocks

The bond market is on the verge of making an important move that could spook stock investors.

The 10-year yield is closing in on 2.63 percent, a level it has not traded above since the summer of 2014.

Higher yields compete for investment dollars with stocks and also make for higher lending rates for corporations.

by Patti Domm

Technically, it appears there could then be a quick move higher to 2.75 percent.

Bond yields can lure money away from the stock market if they get high enough.

They also could mean higher borrowing costs for U.S. companies.

Jeff Gundlach said that tax cuts could help send them higher, as growth picks up.

Bill Gross declared last week that after more than 25 years, the bond bear market has begun. He noted that key trend lines were broken in the 5-year and 10-year, confirming a bear market.


Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/18/the-bon ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:28 pm

Bond ETFs Awash in Pain May Be Red Flag for Risk Appetite

By Dani Burger and Sid Verma

Cash bonds shrug off withdrawals, stumping strategists
Fund flows act as barometer for broader fixed-income, stocks

U.S.-listed corporate bond ETFs are headed for a second consecutive month of outflows, the first time that’s occurred in at least seven years. The pain is across ratings.

Investors pulled more than $1.9 billion from U.S.-listed corporate bond ETFs in the week to Jan. 19, the second consecutive five-day period of outflows.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:37 pm

Medieval Wisdom on When to Start Worrying About the Bond Market

The Middle Ages could tell us whether we need to think about the rally's end. Or not.

By Stephen Mihm

The average length of bull markets is 25.8 years, but the current bull market is already well past that marker.

In nominal terms, the intensity of the current bull market will soon surpass the top-ranked rally, which stretched from 1441 to 1481.

“Most of the eight previous cyclical ‘real rate depressions’ were eventually disrupted by geopolitical events or catastrophes, with several -- such as the Black Death, the Thirty Years War, or World War Two -- combining both demographic, and geopolitical inflections.”


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:44 am

Economist adds voice to calls for China to cut US Treasury holdings to hit back at Trump’s tariffs

Yu Yongding, one of China’s most prominent economists and a former member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, adds his voice to the chorus calling for a reduction in the country’s hoard of US Treasuries

Joins a rising chorus of voices within China’s circle of policymakers to pare back on the country’s US$1.71 trillion in US Treasuries, the largest hoard in the world.




Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/money/arti ... s-hit-back
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