Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Jan 17)

Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:13 am

These are the biggest risks for the next year, money managers say

by Jacob Pramuk

1) Major geopolitical incident
2) Unwillingness to get away from "rates and equities"
3) The 60/40 portfolio




Source: CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/13/economy- ... 284a1255a1
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:18 am

Black Swan investor warns of central bank bubble

by Michelle Fox

Central banks have created a bubble in the stock market, which will come down "very, very hard" when it finally prices in a series of Federal Reserve rate hikes


"There is one big bet out there. So diversification isn't really going to work. Timing this is not going to work," he said.

"These low rates and this high valuation means that they're extraordinarily sensitive to changes in rates, extraordinarily sensitive to risk premiums and growth."


"In fact, central banks are not in control. In many ways central banks are the tails wagging the dog," he said, pointing out that central banks' balance sheets are "minuscule" compared to the whole global and derivatives market.


Source: CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/13/black-sw ... 284a1255a1
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:50 am

The Last Time This Happened, Stocks Crashed

By Tyler Durden

Wondering why the stock and bond markets are tumbling simultaneously? Confused by the market’s apparent inability to follow the mainstream media’s narrative that higher rates are good for markets?

Wonder no longer – the answer, as we have previously detailed – is the collapse in so-called “risk-parity” funds that force leveraged long positions in equity and bond markets to be unwound en masse.

The last few days have seen the biggest plunge in risk-parity funds since last August’s market crash…

Which forces the funds to dump bonds and stocks… and as volatility increases the selling is exacerbated in a vicious cycle…

BofA warns: “Latent risk remains worth monitoring, as
(i) leverage is still near max levels across a variety of risk parity parametrizations,
(ii) bond allocations are historically elevated, and
(iii) markets continue to be sceptical of a 2016 Fed hike”


Source: Zero Hedge

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/09 ... s-crashed/
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 15, 2016 7:15 pm

"After seven years of having a structural overweight stance on global equities, we believe the regime has fundamentally changed. We think that one should not be buying the dips any more, but use any rallies as selling opportunities," he said.


Bond yields are surging despite deflation, and that is dangerous
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... dangerous/
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:46 pm

Hedge-fund manager warns of biggest market correction since 2008

Hedge-fund manager Robert Citrone, whose Discovery Capital Management firm oversees about $12.4 billion, offered his clients a grim assessment of what’s to come in the stock market, according to a note reportedly obtained by Bloomberg

‘We believe we are in the midst of the market correction we have been expecting. It will likely persist over the next 3-4 months and be the largest correction since the 2008 crisis.’

He did reportedly say in the note, however, that the coming retreat would be a “healthy adjustment from overvalued market levels, which are primarily a result of exceptionally easy monetary policies.”

Citrone, as Bloomberg pointed out, is one of many hedge-fund managers labeled “tiger cub” after working at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management.

Source: Market Watch
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:48 pm

China slowdown is global economy's biggest threat, Rogoff says
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37468566
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:06 am

Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman Brothers? The denials certainly don't help suggest it's not
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... certainly/
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:58 am

Stocks Are Crashing – Led By Banks

By Tyler Durden

Source: Zero Hedge

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2016/09 ... -by-banks/
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:57 am

Warning: These ticking time-bombs may be in your portfolio right now

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/warning-these-tickin ... right-now/
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Re: Risks Out There 04 (Aug 15 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Oct 20, 2016 7:30 am

Rickards: Financial war conversation with America's top spy

Source: Daily Crux

http://thecrux.com/rickards-financial-w ... s-top-spy/
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