US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Jul 20)

Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:26 pm

A ‘sell in May’ risk looms over the market, Nomura quant warns

By Steve Goldstein

Most of what are called commodity trading advisors are trend followers, and Takada said they appear to have stopped accumulating Nasdaq 100 futures.

If Nasdaq 100 can’t hold 8100, “we would expect the buying pressure generated by these CTAs on their own in the U.S. equity market to fizzle out on or around May 8.

This would imply a need to brace for selling in tune with the ‘sell in May’ adage,” he said.

“We suspect that global macro hedge funds will remain bearish until there is some reason to believe that [developed market] economies are on their way to finding a floor”.


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sel ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:47 pm

Charts that Count: why the market ignores the layoffs
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a7CGxq12DNU
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:46 pm

Some U.S. companies will keep small business loans, defying backlash
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN22701J
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:19 pm

Goldman Says Narrow Breadth in S&P 500 a Bad Sign for Stocks

by Joanna Ossinger

(Bloomberg) -- The narrowing group of winners in the S&P 500 doesn’t bode well for the future performance of U.S. stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The U.S. benchmark is around 17% below its February record, but the median stock trades 28% from its peak, Goldman strategists including David Kostin wrote in a note Friday.

Meanwhile, the five largest companies make up 20% of the gauge’s market capitalization, exceeding the 18% level the measure reached in March 2000 and raising investor concerns about narrow market breadth, they said.

“Sharp declines in market breadth in the past have often signaled large market drawdowns,” the strategists wrote.

“Narrow breadth can last for extended periods, but past episodes have signaled below-average market returns and eventual momentum reversals.”

Breadth narrowed ahead of the recessions in 1990 and 2008, in the tech bubble, and during the economic slowdowns of 2011 and 2016, according to the note. In the recent rally, market leaders have been the same large-cap, strong-balance sheet stocks that had been outperforming before the outbreak, resulting in a surge in already-elevated market concentration, it said.

Goldman’s caution dovetails with that of Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams, who said in a report Thursday that that U.S. equity breadth has not moved at a pace consistent with strong rallies off lows.

Less than half the members of the S&P 500 were trading above their 50-day moving average, she noted.

In early February, before the coronavirus sell-off, Kostin and his team had downplayed the dominance of large-cap technology giants in the U.S. benchmark, arguing that lower growth expectations, lower valuations and greater reinvestment could help them sustain their leadership.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 03015.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:12 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

DocuSign (DOCU)... Software as a Service
Zoom Video Communications (ZM)... video conferencing
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce "picks and shovels"

Weis Markets (WMK)... grocery stores
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... consumer goods
Eli Lilly (LLY)... pharmaceuticals
Quidel (QDEL)... medical diagnostics
Barrick Gold (GOLD)... gold
Newmont (NEM)... gold
Franco-Nevada (FNV)... gold royalties


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)... "death of retail"
Axis Capital (AXS)... insurance

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:12 pm

台股季線攻防戰! 揭四大利多.四大隱憂 聯電營運可望拚撐竿跳?!│主播丁士芬│【iStock盤前解析】20200428│三立iNEWS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ_6YMpGp9A
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:28 pm

Investors have $5.1 trillion hiding out in the shares of five companies, which will be tested this week

By Nigam Arora

The companies’ earnings reports will be interpreted through the lens of confirmation bias

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inves ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:06 pm

Are investors driven by FOMO, or is a retest of the lows coming? Here’s what Wall Street strategists are saying about the stock-market outlook

By Mark DeCambre

‘Our sense is that the liquidity-driven ‘melt-up’ could persist over the near term. Ultimately, however, extremely weak fundamentals should matter. Along this vein, we expect the state reopening process to be much slower than what’s currently baked into stock prices.’— Wolfe Research analysts

‘Literally every single person alive knows how bad earnings / economic data is, so that doesn’t “surprise” the market at all. IF the duration of this is shorter than we initially thought that is another reason for the rally.’— Michael Antonelli, Robert W. Baird & Co.

‘While we are not in the clear and many risks still exist, we learn a bit more about our opponent each and every day. As a result, we can better plot our response to it. That is likely being reflected in rising equity prices.’— Brent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management

‘What happens after that is the real question—we will either get significant follow through or a period of activity, but activity which is much lower than what is needed to sustain the rise in prices. I hope for the former, but am planning for the latter just in case.’— Jamie Cox, Harris Financial Group


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-i ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:43 pm

台股反彈4月天 大漲千點! 熱錢湧入! 新台幣衝上2字頭 │主播詹璇依│【iStock盤前解析】20200430│三立iNEWS
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat May 02, 2020 4:17 pm

S&P 500 earnings are beating estimates by the lowest rate in a decade amid COVID-19 despite earlier cuts to forecasts
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-50 ... ck_seemore


Welcome to the most expensive US stock market in two decades
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/01/inve ... index.html
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