US - Market Direction 42 (May 19 - Jul 20)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:01 am

(Mkt crash coming???)


Companies are warning that earnings results are going to be brutal
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/01/compani ... rutal.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:55 pm

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Verisign (VRSN)... domain-name provider
Oracle (ORCL)... software
Visa (V)... credit cards
First Data (FDC)... financial services
FleetCor Technologies (FLT)… commercial payments
Worldpay (WP)... payments processor
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)... commodity markets
Churchill Downs (CHDN)... gambling
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)... gambling
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... concerts and shows
Starbucks (SBUX)... coffee "World Dominator"
McDonald's (MCD)... Big Macs, Chicken McNuggets

Shake Shack (SHAK)... ShackBurgers
Hostess Brands (TWNK)... Twinkies, Ding Dongs
Crown (CCK)... food packaging
Ball (BLL)... aluminum cans, satellites
Danaher (DHR)... industrial goods
CarMax (KMX)... used cars
AutoZone (AZO)... auto parts
Enphase Energy (ENPH)... solar energy
McKesson (MCK)... prescription drugs
MetLife (MET)... insurance
Aflac (AFL)... insurance
Accenture (ACN)... consulting

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many...It's a bull market, you know!

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:49 pm

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Express (AXP)... credit-card giant
MasterCard (MA)... credit-card giant
Visa (V)... credit-card giant
Ally Financial (ALLY)... financial services
Worldpay (WP)... cashless revolution
PayPal (PYPL)... cashless revolution
Global Payments (GPN)... cashless revolution
Adobe (ADBE)... cloud services
ServiceNow (NOW)... cloud services
Comcast (CMCSA)... telecom
Invitation Homes (INVH)... rental homes
AvalonBay Communities (AVB)... rental apartments
Essex Property Trust (ESS)... rental apartments
Public Storage (PSA)... self-storage
Walmart (WMT)... world's largest retailer
Dollar General (DG)... fast-growing retailer
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only retail
Royal Gold (RGLD)... gold royalties
Franco-Nevada (FNV)... gold royalties
Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)... world's largest gold miner
Genesee & Wyoming (GWR)... railroads
ResMed (RMD)... medical devices

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Chemours (CC)... chemicals
Nordstrom (JWN)... clothing retailer
Big Lots (BIG)... discount retailer
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... home goods
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)... Outback Steakhouse

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:09 pm

‘Pain Trade': Four reasons why the S&P could jump to 3,200

by Scott Gamm

1. Synchronized monetary easing
2. Easing of trade tensions
3. No earnings recession
4. Corporate stimulus


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pain-tra ... 00957.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:39 am

Soaring stockmarket, peaking profits

After years of plenty, America Inc is struggling to crank out more earnings
Company owners seem to be winning an ever-rising share of output. Yet the reality is murkier


OVER THE past 25 years America’s stockmarket has soared. Far from being built on thin air, this long bull run has rested on a boom in corporate profits.

The worldwide earnings of all American firms, whether listed or not, have risen by 455% over this period and are now 35% above their long-term average relative to GDP. America Inc mints $1bn every five hours.

Globalisation, tepid wage rises, the ascent of tech and feeble competition made the bonanza possible. But as some of these forces ebb, the era of relentlessly expanding profits is under threat.

Over the next few weeks America’s blue-chip companies will report their latest profit figures, which are expected to drop slightly (see Business section). Managers and investors need to be alert, especially given the growing number of firms with high debts that rely on bulging profits to stay afloat.

Profits are an essential part of capitalism—they reward savers, incentivise innovators and create surplus funds for investment. America is the home of the bottom line: firms based there account for 33 cents of every dollar made by listed companies worldwide. The level of profitability shifts over time: in the boom after 1945 American firms made hay, whereas they struggled in the mid-1980s.

Even so the upswing since the 1990s has been striking. The worldwide post-tax earnings of American firms rose from 5.9% of GDP in 1994 to close to 10% now (the dip in the 2008-09 recession was short-lived). The trend echoes the prediction of Thomas Piketty, an economist, who argues that the rate of return on capital exceeds the rate of economic growth. This implies that company owners win an inexorably rising share of output as the rest of society is squeezed.

Yet peer closer and the reality is murkier. Domestic profits, and the worldwide profits of American firms, peaked relative to GDP in 2012, and have plateaued since then. President Donald Trump’s tax cuts boosted earnings in 2018. But the underlying trend is one of stagnation.

The members of the S&P 500 index of big companies are forecast to say that second-quarter earnings-per-share dropped by 3% compared with the prior year, the second consecutive quarter of mild decline. Individual firms’ fortunes wax and wane—General Electric’s second-quarter profits are expected to drop by 91% from their peak in 2015; Microsoft should book its highest absolute quarterly profits since it was founded in 1975. But there are also deeper forces that are muting the earnings boom.

Globalisation helped make firms more efficient but now pulls down profits. The share of pre-tax earnings made abroad has slipped from 35% a decade ago to 25%. Company conference calls with investors now feature discussions about trade wars. At home the jobs market is tightening, putting more pressure on wage bills, which rose by about 5% last year.

The earnings boom of the past two decades has also been fuelled by the rise of a few exceptionally profitable tech firms, such as Alphabet and Facebook. But their growth rates are slowing and the next generation of tech stars, such as Uber and Netflix, burn up cash rather than print it. On July 17th Netflix’s shares tumbled after it announced weak subscriber figures.

Lastly, there is some sign that competition is biting at last in cosy industries, such as telecoms, media and branded foods. After years of waving through mergers, antitrust regulators are taking a tougher line on deals.

During recessions corporate earnings typically fall by a sixth or more. But even if the economy keeps on growing—at 121 months old the expansion is now the longest on record—downward pressure on profit margins is on the cards. That would allow consumers and workers to get a better deal from big business, but presents two risks for investors and executives.

First, equity-fund managers and Wall Street analysts, accustomed to years of high growth, expect a rebound in profits later in the year. They may be disappointed.

Second, many firms have geared up their balance-sheets in the belief that the good times will roll on for ever. Corporate borrowing in America has risen to 74% of GDP, above the peak in 2008; 40% of the stock of debt is owed by highly leveraged firms with debts of over four times their gross operating profits.

Although most managers accept that a mixture of flat profits and high debts is toxic, they never think it will undo them. But already several giants that were considered reliable profit-machines are struggling.

AT&T needs to pay down a colossal pile of $169bn of net debt even as its profits come under pressure from TV customers jumping ship. Kraft Heinz has to service $30bn of net debts even as a new generation of consumers abandon Mac & Cheese for healthier products.

In the past, profits have been considered a fickle friend by business people. But after a long boom, rising earnings have become baked into American corporate life. Most investors and creditors assume that profits will go on growing.

Almost every company presentation assumes that rising margins are the natural state of affairs. This groupthink is complacent—and possibly dangerous. That’s the bottom line.■

Source: The Economist
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 18 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:33 pm

Expect a 10% Market Correction Within 3 Months, Morgan Stanley CIO Says

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Earnings estimates are still 5% to 10% too high, a factor that will weigh on stocks in the next 6 months.

Once those estimates come down, stocks will look a lot more attractive.

There are other obstacles for equities, such as tough technical resistance at 3,000 for the S&P 500 and the hype surrounding an expected Fed cut that may turn it into a “sell the news” type of event.


Source: MarketWatch

https://www.barrons.com/articles/expect ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 18 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:45 pm

HIGHS AND LOWS
NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK


Okta (OKTA)... identity-protection software
MarketAxess (MKTX)... electronic trading
Moody's (MCO)... credit-ratings firm
Morningstar (MORN)... investment research
American International (AIG)... insurance
Chubb (CB)... insurance
Travelers (TRV)... insurance
PayPal (PYPL)... mobile payments
Estée Lauder (EL)... beauty brands
Ferrari (RACE)... luxury cars
SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS)... theme parks
Restaurant Brands (QSR)... Burger King, Popeyes
Denny's (DENN)... diner franchise
McDonald's (MCD)... fast-food giant
Costco Wholesale (COST)...membership-only retail
Ross Stores (ROST)... discount retailer
NVR (NVR)... homebuilder
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC)... homebuilder
PulteGroup (PHM)... homebuilder
FirstEnergy (FE)... utilities
First Majestic Silver (AG)... silver
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)... precious metals
Pretium Resources (PVG)... precious metals

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

GameStop (GME)... video-game stores
Party City (PRTY)... party-supply stores
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)... grocery stores
Antero Resources (AR)... fossil fuels
Apache (APA)... fossil fuels
Range Resources (RRC)... fossil fuels


Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 18 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:01 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

W.R. Berkley (WRB)... insurance
Assurant (AIZ)... insurance
Blackstone (BX)... asset management
Visa (V)... credit cards
MasterCard (MA)... credit cards

Discover Financial Services (DFS)... credit cards
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce
Texas Instruments (TXN)... semiconductors
Analog Devices (ADI)... semiconductor equipment
Marvell Technology (MRVL)... semiconductor equipment
Universal Display (OLED)... lighting and displays
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... live concerts
Churchill Downs (CHDN)... gambling
Hasbro (HAS)... toys and games
Restaurant Brands (QSR)... Burger King, Popeyes
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos
Denny's (DENN)... diner franchise
Crown (CCK)... metal cans
Cummins (CMI)... truck engines
Heico (HEI)... airplane equipment
Brink's (BCO)... armored cars
Stryker (SYK)... medical devices
Edwards Lifesciences (EW)... medical devices
Baxter (BAX)... hospital supplies

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Herbalife Nutrition (HLF)... multilevel marketing
Tupperware Brands (TUP)... multilevel marketing
Boingo Wireless (WIFI)... wireless hotspots
Michaels (MIK)... craft stores
Tailored Brands (TLRD)... Men's Wearhouse
RPC (RES)... oilfield services

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 18 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 29, 2019 8:01 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

W.R. Berkley (WRB)... insurance
Assurant (AIZ)... insurance
Blackstone (BX)... asset management
Visa (V)... credit cards
MasterCard (MA)... credit cards

Discover Financial Services (DFS)... credit cards
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce
Texas Instruments (TXN)... semiconductors
Analog Devices (ADI)... semiconductor equipment
Marvell Technology (MRVL)... semiconductor equipment
Universal Display (OLED)... lighting and displays
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... live concerts
Churchill Downs (CHDN)... gambling
Hasbro (HAS)... toys and games
Restaurant Brands (QSR)... Burger King, Popeyes
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos
Denny's (DENN)... diner franchise
Crown (CCK)... metal cans
Cummins (CMI)... truck engines
Heico (HEI)... airplane equipment
Brink's (BCO)... armored cars
Stryker (SYK)... medical devices
Edwards Lifesciences (EW)... medical devices
Baxter (BAX)... hospital supplies

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Herbalife Nutrition (HLF)... multilevel marketing
Tupperware Brands (TUP)... multilevel marketing
Boingo Wireless (WIFI)... wireless hotspots
Michaels (MIK)... craft stores
Tailored Brands (TLRD)... Men's Wearhouse
RPC (RES)... oilfield services

Source: Daily Wealth
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: US - Market Direction 42 (May 18 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:11 am

Companies are ramping up share buybacks, and they’re increasingly using debt to do so
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/buyback ... tocks.html


Morgan Stanley: The S&P 500 will fail to break out for a third time in 18 months
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/29/morgan- ... onths.html
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