US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:27 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Hershey (HSY)... "Global Elite" chocolatier
Starbucks (SBUX)... "World Dominator" of coffee
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... "fast casual" burritos
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR)... candy
Mondelez (MDLZ)... snacks
TreeHouse Foods (THS)... packaged foods
General Mills (GIS)... packaged foods
Dollar Tree (DLTR)... discount retailer
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)... consumer goods
Merck (MRK)... pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)... pharmaceuticals
Novartis (NVS)... pharmaceuticals
Baxter (BAX)... medical devices
Lennox (LII)... HVAC equipment
Ameren (AEE)... utilities
DTE Energy (DTE)... utilities
Exelon (EXC)... utilities
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)... precious metals
Barrick Gold (GOLD)... precious metals

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Humana (HUM)... health insurance
Cigna (CI)... health insurance
Tupperware Brands (TUP)... household goods
Eventbrite (EB)... tickets and events

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:20 pm

MONDAY

Earnings season is here. Plenty for the market to mull, but for now the market maintains a steady upside bias.

Yes, it is tested by less than savory news such as the yield curve inversion selling just over a week ago, but the bids return.

A similar circumstance occurred last earnings season when stocks would fall on results, hold onto support, then recover.

Rotation occurred the past week with late week some more 'old economy' stocks starting to perform or at least show good setups to try to make upside breaks.

Energy, materials, machinery, manufacturing, food. This in addition to the semiconductor leadership. Indeed, it would not be surprising to see the software stocks struggle some more as money moves to some of these other areas.

The prior highs are looming as both resistance and as a magnet. We want to play the upside move as long as it lasts and then see how the market reacts to the resistance.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:28 pm

CHARTS


SP500: 7 days upside in a row, adding to that longest win streak in over a year. Well over 2800 and now it is countdown time for the August 2018 penultimate high (2916.50) and the September/October small twin peaks (2940.91) that set off the October through December selloff.

Low volume as it approaches those highs just 24 and 48 points away. That makes it more difficult to break through major resistance, but of course you would expect SP500 to perhaps pause at those levels and test a bit, particularly if it continues directly to them on this already solid price move.


NASDAQ: After a Thursday pause, NASDAQ cracked just above the late July penultimate high (7933) and now is entering the August to early October consolidation and small double top similar to SP500's peak (8133.30; closed at 7938.69).

As with SP500, volume is running light on this move whereas on the March run at least trade was bouncing around average. Low volume approaching new highs is problematic, but as with SP500, with a run such as this, a bit of a pullback as NASDAQ hits the later resistance levels is normal.


DJ30: The Dow is through the November peak with a nice Thursday move and a somewhat equivocal doji Friday. It is still below the January 2018 peak (26,616.71) and of course the September interim high and the October all-time high (26,952). Volume is rather pathetic. No, it is pathetic, coming in well below aver


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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:30 pm

MARKET SUMMARY

- The upside week continues through Friday with the small and midcaps taking the lead.

- Market rotation thus far remains beneficial, though software is at the lick log.

- Jobs recovery from a weak February, but the internal data does not show the same improvement.

- Economic data is not great, not bad, inflation mostly tame, but Fed hikes are still negatively impacting the economy.

- Other areas trying to move up into leadership: materials, energy, manufacturing, machinery, biotechs

- Indices approaching the prior highs, drawn toward resistance.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:42 pm

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Cisco (CSCO)... Internet "plumbing"
Verisign (VRSN)... Internet domain names
Dell Technologies (DELL)... computer systems
Arista Networks (ANET)... computer systems
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)... computer systems
Broadcom (AVGO)... semiconductors
Garmin (GRMN)... GPS technology
Intuit (INTU)... tax-prep software
Zendesk (ZEN)... customer-service software
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)... payroll processor
Worldpay (WP)... electronic payments
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only stores
Church & Dwight (CHD)... household products
Hershey (HSY)... snacks and chocolate
Fastenal (FAST)... tools and fasteners
Lennox (LII)... HVAC equipment
Ingersoll Rand (IR)... manufacturing
Norfolk Southern (NSC)... railroads
CSX (CSX)... railroads

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores
Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)... drugstores
GameStop (GME)... video-game retailer
Cigna (CI)... health insurance
Humana (HUM)... health insurance

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:00 am

MONDAY

Continual headlines regarding trade. The ongoing upward bias. A still compliant Fed.

Earnings expectations are not great, and as JPM showed, a solid beat is rewarded.

Thus, we look for a continued move higher on the general upside bias, expectations of a trade deal, a still compliant Fed, and a good reception to earnings.

We want to play that continued move higher as that Friday upside break shows, capturing the run up toward those prior highs. At this juncture, that is all you can anticipate.

Once at the highs you watch to see if sellers come in and sell the leaders on high volume. If not, the move still continues though it might test near term.

Not that complicated, though it is easy to make it such as seen last week: many the pundits are so preoccupied with an impending selloff, if a stray dog wandered by and barked some of them would pass out.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:07 am

CHARTS

DJ30: Starting with the Dow given DIS and CVX. DIS gapped to its best gain since I wore mouse ears. CVX dropped on the APC announcement. JPM gapped and rallied on earnings. BA rallied 2.5%. There you have it, the ingredients for a 1% gain.

The move, however, only managed to bounce DJ30 to just below the early April highs. Good pattern to bounce, it did, now the recent high at 26,488 then the last two highs making up the all-time high.


NASDAQ: Gapped to a doji Friday, back at the recent highs. After edging past the July 2018 peak NASDAQ has struggled to advance. Leadership from software is flat at best while FAANG stocks are decent but not rallying much.

Semiconductors are pulling most the load but they of course are not as large a market cap as the huge NASDAQ names. Past the recent highs, now eyeing the prior all-time highs near 8150, but not finding a lot of strong bids.


SP500: Nice gap and rally to close just below the late August 2018 penultimate high to the twin peaks in September. With financial stocks, large industrials, and some energy moving higher, SP500 is running straight at the prior highs.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:02 pm

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Microsoft (MSFT)... technology giant
Universal Display (OLED)... screen technology
Okta (OKTA)... software
PayPal (PYPL)... electronic payments
Global Payments (GPN)... electronic payments
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics retailer
Tractor Supply (TSCO)... rural lifestyle retailer
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto-parts retailer
CBRE Group (CBRE)... commercial real estate
Graco (GGG)... manufacturing
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)... life-sciences giant
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)... medical technology
Atrion (ATRI)... medical devices
Garmin (GRMN)... GPS technology
Crown Castle (CCI)... wireless infrastructure
Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)... wireless networks
Cable One (CABO)... Internet and cable TV

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Express (EXPR)... clothing retailer
Guess (GES)... clothing retailer
GameStop (GME)... video-game retailer
Dean Foods (DF)... dairy products

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:03 am

MARKET SUMMARY

- The taste of Wednesday selling abates, indices hold position.

- Economic data better in some cases but still mixed.

- Earnings are helping the indices, but with most at resistance and sitting on a 4 week rally, they will have to be strong to break to those prior highs on this move.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:05 am

CHARTS

To view, click on the following links:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/c ... daq100.jpg


NASDAQ 100 gapped and rallied over the old high on Wednesday but reversed. Thursday it advanced to challenge the highs again, but closed just below that resistance, showing a doji. This week some seriously important large cap NASDAQ stocks report of course that will bear upon NDX' action at the resistance.

DJ30 is bumping the last resistance level from January 2018 the last resistance before the September/October peaks, the latter the all-time high. Same story here: can it punch through given the strength of the so-called old economy stocks?

SP500 bumped the late August 2018 peak and backed off, but is holding well at the 10 day EMA. Four weeks upside, hit penultimate resistance, paused. Logic says it tests, but earnings are coming in better than expected and helping lift stocks initially -- as we anticipated.

NASDAQ Broke into no-man's land the past week, surpassing penultimate resistance and now looking at the late August all-time high. Four week run, reversed a solid upside Wednesday gap. It will need solid earnings this week to push it at that old high.

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