US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - May 19)

Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:47 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ/SOX: Both of these indices broke to new highs last week. SOX broke through its upper channel line, NASDAQ likely touched what could be the upper channel line for a new channel. Both indices faded in a sharp Tuesday high to low reversal session. The rest of the week they were lower, but the sellers basically left.

After Tuesday there was no heavy selling. None of the indices could hold an early gain, but there was no high volume dumping as on Tuesday. That leaves NASDAQ and SOX in tight lateral consolidations over the 10 day EMA and in position to defy the odds and continue with more
upside. As noted Thursday, an important time for these two indices. And all the other indices.


SP500: SP500 definitely looks better than it did early week as it managed to hold the 50 day SMA with a pair of tight doji Thursday and Friday. It broke through the 50 day two Fridays back and then this fade. It set itself up for a possible bounce, but overall the pattern makes me a skeptic.

You can see the outline of an upward pointing wedge from the February selloff to present, all contained inside that selloff. That is not a bullish pattern. We will see how SP500 performs this week off the 50 day SMA test.


DJ30: DJ30's pattern is even harder to interpret. The selloff, then a slow rise in arguably a channel and arguably a triangle. Last week it put in a lower high and faded to the lower trendline. Still looks weak, but it has put itself in a position where it could bounce near term.


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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:14 pm

How Much Longer Will Stocks Chop Sideways?

by Serge Berger

From where I sit through the lens of technical analysis it looks somewhat unlikely that the S&P 500 will be able to sustainably push above the January highs, which however is not to say that individual pockets of stocks won’t be able to achieve this.




Source: Investor Place

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 21, 2018 12:54 pm

The Real Reason Stocks Dropped in February and Why Another Leg Down is Coming

by TYLER DURDEN

It is BONDS, not stocks, that concern Central Banks the most. If stocks collapse, it’s a big deal for investors. If bonds collapse, it’s a big deal for entire countries/ the financial system.


Source: Zero Hedge

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2018/03 ... is-coming/
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:24 am

MONDAY

Friday did not have that opening dive we were looking for followed by short covering. Instead it rallied then had to reverse, and there were no bids ready in the afternoon as they were used in the morning.

Monday we watch to see if the DJ30, SP500 February lows act as support and work a reversal. The setup is there, the historical pattern is there, enough leaders are still in decent enough patterns to put forth a serious leadership effort if DJ30 and SP500 are close to reversal levels. Now, if it is only not different this time.

If it is different this time, there will still be a rebound move, a relief move. After this much selling you want to play the downside after a relief move upside fails versus attempting to get on board after Thursday and Friday.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:37 am

Charts:-

Dow:-

The 575 point high to low move took the Dow below the February closing low and within 173 points of the intraday low. That also takes DJ30 just over the 200 day SMA (23,357; closed at 23,533). It also puts DJ30 at the October/November lateral consolidation. Further, that has the Dow back near the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2017 to late January all-time high.

Meaning? You look for a test of the prior low at key levels. You look for a pattern to establish. Key levels: 61% Fibonacci retracement, prior February low, October/November consolidation, 200 day SMA.
Pattern: potential double bottom. Potential because the Dow is at the level, but it is not showing signs of slowing the selling as of the Friday close. That likely comes early next week with a reach lower that then recovers to a doji near these support levels.


SP500 is very similar as DJ30 and SP500 have moved rather lockstep though DJ30 is the weaker. SP500 is spot on the February closing low and the 200 day SMA. It is also putting in its own potential double bottom just over the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the September to January rally. Closed on the low so no indication of a bounce yet, but lots of support at this level.
A dip lower, recovery to a doji or better is a good bottoming indication.


NASDAQ broke its December to March trendline and is 72 points from the longer term trendline from early 2016. It is also closing in on the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September to January run. That trendline is going to be important, particularly if DJ30 and SP500 fall early week and reverse at the February lows. NASDAQ could then put in a higher low, albeit not that much higher than the February closing low.


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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:30 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce powerhouse
Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
E-Trade Financial (ETFC)... online brokerage
Square (SQ)... digital payments
Paycom Software (PAYC)... human-resources software
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Burlington Stores (BURL)... discount clothing
Guess (GES)... clothing and accessories
Tapestry (TPR)... luxury purses
Bloomin' Brands (BLMN)... casual-dining restaurants
SodaStream (SODA)... do-it-yourself soda
NextEra Energy (NEE)... "boring" utility
Progressive (PGR)... insurance
Rayonier (RYN)... timberland
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
Altria (MO)... tobacco
CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores
General Electric (GE)... debt-ridden industrial giant
GoPro (GPRO)... wearable cameras
Dish Network (DISH)... "cord cutting" victim
Comcast (CMCSA)... "cord cutting" victim
CBS (CBS)... television

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:41 pm

Be Super Careful in This Stock Market or Risk Getting Your Face Ripped Off

By Brian Sozzi

"Firstly, the rapid widening in the TED spread - interbank rates minus T-Bills - has caused an accelerated liquidation of speculative positioning. The cost of borrowing money in the financial markets has climbed forcing marginal trade positions to be liquidated in our view.

Secondly, although it would be easy to blame Treasury Bill issuance on the yield curve flattening, however the 10-year yield has actually declined and failed to reinforce the reflation trade." The rising cost of money (thank you Federal Reserve) and liquidation of speculative positions is a trend unlikely to vanish in the short-term.

Stay disciplined right now or risk getting your face ripped off, especially during this week's light economic calendar.

Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1453364 ... d-off.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 9:15 pm

S&P 500 Supports

The market is still trading above its worst correction levels last seen in February of this year.

Looking at the S&P 500, the index closed right at its 200-day moving average at 2,588, an important support level.

Technically speaking, that level should hold. If not, the next areas of support are as follows: 2,532.69 (the correction low of Feb. 9th, 2018), then 2,467.11 (which is a gap left on the chart from Sept. 9th, 2017) and then 2,417.35 (which is the pullback low from Aug. 8th, 2017, which preceded the aforementioned gap).

Those three support levels would put the market -2.15% lower from Friday's close, -4.68% lower from Friday's close and -6.60% lower from Friday's close.

That could potentially see the market down as much as -15.86% from its all-time highs. Still correction territory, but not bear market territory.

Where would the S&P have to go to hit that -20% bear market threshold? All the way down to 2,298.29.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:24 pm

Stock-market bears are in control of the S&P 500

By Avi Gilburt

Watch whether S&P 500 bounces in the coming week or two remain below 2,660

The structure with which we have now dropped has strongly suggested that wave (4) isn’t likely done yet.

I have noted many times how it was hard for me to view all of wave (4) completing in 10 days when wave (3) took a year and a half.


Source: Market Watch

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:11 am

The Dow may already be in a bear market — here’s how long it could last

by Mark Hulbert

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 670 points on Monday, but it will hit bottom on Mar. 4, 2019, at 18,328.27.

That’s on the assumption that a major bear market began at the Jan. 26 highs, and that the ensuing bear market will be average both in terms of length and loss.

That would mean we face 11 more months of a declining market, in which the Dow (^DJI) will drop another 5,205 points (or 22.1%) from its Jan. 26 peak.


Source: MarketWatch

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-may- ... 19194.html
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