US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - May 19)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon May 21, 2018 7:48 am

MONDAY

The indices were unable to make a break higher Friday even though some stocks jumped upside, e.g. BA. Chips were a drag, pure and simple. Other groups were up, but not enough to offset the negatives and boost a new break higher.

Thus, the stock indices enter next week with SP500, DJ30, NASDAQ, SP400 in good patterns but still looking for the next break higher.

Now if trade is truly an issue, and it is to a certain extent, there may be some positives to start the week. China and the US met and it is reported that China agrees to boost US export purchases to "substantially reduce" the trade gap.

Perhaps this 'deal' will boost stocks. Perhaps there is still a lot of weekend ahead. There is also the chip stocks. Can the market rally without them? Yes, but it is not as easy. Good patterns remain in many areas and we will see if they can continue breaking higher.

In the end it comes down to leaders and whether they can make good on good patterns. More will have to make the moves to push SP500, DJ30, NASDAQ, SP400 higher out of their bases. It is May, it is already hot outside, and the market has to deal with the time of year issue (sell in May and go away . . .). For now, if the stocks make the moves, we will play the stocks.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon May 21, 2018 8:11 am

CHARTS

SP500: Holding at the 10 day EMA after dropping to that level on the Tuesday flop that ended leg one of this latest upside attempt. Friday saw BA, CAT, DE and others break higher, but they could not budge the needle on the entire 500 large caps. Still a very good break higher out of the
triangle followed by the current nice tight lateral test. MACD looks good as noted before. All that is missing is the next upside break.

DJ30: Very tight lateral move over the 10 day EMA Tuesday through Friday after the drop from Monday that put in a new high on the rally off support. Breakout from the triangle, a move over the April high, now testing that move. Nice pattern, but nice patterns are just nice patterns until the next break is put in. BA broke higher, CAT as well, both components. If AAPL
can throw in as well, that perhaps will help spring the move.

NASDAQ: Broke over the April high the prior week, held it Monday, but then dropped Tuesday to the 10 day EMA and that prior peak. Worked laterally, tried to make the break Wednesday, but didn't stick and NASDAQ closed the week at the 10 day. As with the other large cap indices, it is in position to move higher, just needs to show the move.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon May 21, 2018 8:26 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Visa (V)... credit cards
Boston Beer (SAM)... Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Twisted Tea
Brown-Forman (BF-B)... Jack Daniel's, Woodford Reserve, Finlandia
Churchill Downs (CHDN)... gambling
Eldorado Resorts (ERI)... gambling
Penn National Gaming (PENN)... gambling
Madison Square Garden (MSG)... concerts and sports
Weight Watchers (WTW)... weight-loss help
Nike (NKE)... athletic clothes and shoes
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)... " yoga inspired " apparel
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Urban Outfitters (URBN)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Macy's (M)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Burlington Stores (BURL)... discount "one-stop shop"
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)... discount retailer
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Best Buy (BBY)... big-screen TVs, laptops, tablets
GoDaddy (GDDY)... world's largest domain-name provider
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
Steel Dynamics (STLD)... steel
Vale (VALE)... iron ore
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A)... oil and gas
Total (TOT)... oil and gas
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
CSX (CSX)... railroads
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)... trucking


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Altria (MO)... cigarettes
Philip Morris (PM)... cigarettes
Campbell Soup (CPB)... soups, sauces, and more
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)... toothpaste, liquid soap, and more

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Tue May 29, 2018 8:44 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ is holding at the top of its two week range, the consolidation of the early May rally. If the big names can break higher after some positive action this week, NASDAQ follows SOX clearing the highs in the range.

SP500 shows the same pattern as SP400, working laterally in a relatively narrow range after the break higher three weeks back.

DJ30 is very similar, holding over the 20 day EMA with a doji, unable to hold the Monday break higher but looking quite good still.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Tue May 29, 2018 8:50 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Express (AXP)... financial powerhouse
E-Trade Financial (ETFC)... online brokerage
Microsoft (MSFT)... "digital utility"
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Shutterfly (SFLY)... digital photos and prints
Netflix (NFLX)... streaming "game changer"
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... "cord cutting" winner
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
Callaway Golf (ELY)... golf equipment
Vail Resorts (MTN)... ski resorts
Tiffany (TIF)... high-end jewelry
Nike (NKE)... "one of the strongest brands in the world"
Ralph Lauren (RL)... iconic clothing brand
Boston Beer (SAM)... Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Twisted Tea
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)... discount retailer
W.W. Grainger (GWW)... safety gloves, ladders, motors, and more
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)... trucking
CSX (CSX)... railroads
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A)... oil and gas
BP (BP)... oil and gas
ConocoPhillips (COP)... oil and gas
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
Rio Tinto (RIO)... "World Dominator" in mining
AstraZeneca (AZN)... Big Pharma
Boston Scientific (BSX)... pacemakers, catheters, and stents
Align Technology (ALGN)... "invisible" orthodontics

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

JC Penney (JCP)... "veering toward the abyss"
Coty (COTY)... cosmetics
Campbell Soup (CPB)... soups, sauces, and more
Sanderson Farms (SAFM)... poultry
Alaska Air (ALK)... airline

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:51 am

MONDAY

Thursday was a bit rocky for the growth indices such as NASDAQ and SOX, but they recovered decently Friday and remain in good patterns. The setups in the indices are still quite nice though RUTX may need some more time to test and consolidate before it rallies again.

That leaves the other indices that have lagged as likely candidates to rally. SP500, SP400 look good. Industrials are showing better patterns whether machinery or metals. Money looked to be going their way last week, but not definitive just yet.

There are also many other groups looking good, some that have rallied well and just tested near support. GOOG, NVDA are examples. They too provide that push to not only NASDAQ but SP500 as well.

In short, there are many good patterns in the market, and that suggests the indices will continue to climb -- if they can keep the same outlook toward the futures after G-7 and the US/North Korea meeting on 6/14, we could see a lot of new breaks higher.

Our plays to start the week are a mix of healthcare, chips, big names, China, industrial. Will see what groups receive the money.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:06 am

THE MARKET

VOLUME: NYSE -12%, NASDAQ -16%. Friday volume fade on a session that was both ways. Not bad, no heavy selling, just some low volume movement after good breaks higher.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.4:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1. Modest as you would expect on a flattish day.

Friday saw the midcaps lead, clearing to a new all-time high intraday. They faded a bit, closing with a new all-time closing high. Another index hits the A-T level, SP400 putting in a nice 6-session run.

SP500 put in a very acceptable week, finally clearing the May peaks. That is all. It still has a lot of work, but started to do some work. Many industrial stocks have some very interesting patterns. Ah, the pretty picture syndrome NASDAQ experienced for a while. Then NASDAQ stocks broke higher as did chips. All of them, of course, following RUTX and its string of new highs.

NASDAQ rallied to a new high on the week, dropped rather hard Thursday, then Friday added some back. Solid pattern, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up to it. When it does it is likely to surge again.

DJ30 posted a good week, continuing the prior Friday move up off the 50 day SMA. DJ30 cleared the May highs and is now similarly situated as SP500 with the March and February highs just overhead, still a long way off from that January all-time high. Large caps have lagged, but their patterns are good. As asked before, will the pretty patterns turn into good breakouts upside?

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:04 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Apple (AAPL)... iPhone, iPad, AirPods
Amazon (AMZN)... Prime, Fire TV, Kindle
Microsoft (MSFT)... software powerhouse
Nvidia (NVDA)... technology "picks and shovels"
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
GoDaddy (GDDY)... domain names
Verisign (VRSN)... domain names
Netflix (NFLX)... "on demand" movies and TV shows
Grubhub (GRUB)... "on demand" food delivery
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... dining chain gone digital
Square (SQ)... mobile payments
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce juggernaut
E-Trade Financial (ETFC)... online brokerage
Visa (V)... credit cards
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Ralph Lauren (RL)... iconic brand
Nike (NKE)... iconic brand
Under Armour (UAA)... athletic apparel
Kohl's (KSS)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Macy's (M)... "bad to less bad" in retail
Target (TGT)... discount retailer
Cintas (CTAS)... work uniforms
Weight Watchers (WTW)... weight-loss help
Extra Space Storage (EXR)... self-storage units
Monsanto (MON)... seeds and pesticides
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
Rio Tinto (RIO)... "World Dominator" in mining


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Consolidated Edison (ED)... utility
Dominion Energy (D)... utility
Carnival (CCL)... cruises
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)... cruises
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)... poultry
Sanderson Farms (SAFM)... poultry

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:42 pm

MONDAY

SP500 and DJ30, the indices you would expect to get hammered, while not coming close to new highs, held up very well, setting themselves up for a new move higher despite news that most would have predicted would scuttle any idea of an upside move.

SP500, DJ30 start the week in position to make good upside moves if the conditions merge. Many tech stocks remain positive in their moves, not extended after starting good upside breaks.
Still like many of the patterns out there.

We are in several, and will look to be in more if they can make good on the patterns in place. Thus far tech and growth have done so and we will look at those hard. Don't forget, however, the industrials.

As noted before, if they could survive the back and forth dueling tariffs and hold their patterns, it behooves you to keep a watch on them and when they break higher, pick up the positions.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:05 pm

CHARTS

Not bad action given the 'horror' of a trade war with China. As noted below, even with this scenario and SP500 and DJ30 weighted with stocks that will not like trade wars, they both held up remarkably well.

NASDAQ: After a new all-time high Thursday, NASDAQ opened lower, held 7700 on the low, and rebounded to a modest loss. NASDAQ shows good upside volume, very good leadership, and Friday did nothing to change the strength of the move higher.

RUTX: Not exploding higher on the week but put in new highs yet again. Thursday a new high, Friday a test intraday down near the 10 day EMA, then a rush back upside for a most modest loss. Still very strong, still doing well in a tariff fight environment.

SP500: Similar to SP400, a rally from late May into this week. Spent the week rounding out the move and fading to test the 10 day EMA, holding above it on the close. Nice shakeout action. Many big names have tested and held on. We will see if the reach lower and recovery was indeed a good shakeout.

DJ30: Also rallied, moving past the May highs with a solid break two weeks back, rounding out the top then fading to the 10 day EMA Thursday. Friday a gap lower, a test of the 20 day EMA, then a rebound to the 10 day. Shakeout here as well? Again, it will show if that is the case, but here is the point: even with the 'worst case' scenario for trade the Dow held its breakout over resistance.

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