US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - May 19)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:38 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Visa (V)... credit cards
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Live Nation (LYV)... concerts and festivals
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Church & Dwight (CHD)... Arm & Hammer, Orajel, OxiClean
McCormick (MKC)... "World Dominator" of pantry staples
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... "a company that knows what you crave"
Boston Beer (SAM)... Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard
U.S. Foods (USFD)... food products
Facebook (FB)... "FANG" stock
Salesforce.com (CRM)... cloud computing
GoDaddy (GDDY)... "a company that helps the Internet tick"
New York Times (NYT)... adapting to a digital world
Wayfair (W)... home-goods website
Cintas (CTAS)... clothes for America's workforce
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Humana (HUM)... health insurance
Norfolk Southern (NSC)... railroads
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)... oil and gas
ConocoPhillips (COP)... oil and gas
Marathon Oil (MRO)... oil and gas
Noble Energy (NBL)... oil and gas
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
WD-40 (WDFC)... household chemicals

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Airlines (AAL)... airline
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)... poultry
Papa John's (PZZA)... founder's latest missteps
Avon Products (AVP)... beauty products

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:31 pm

MONDAY

Large cap indices set up well. Small and midcaps near the old highs in a very important test of those. Earnings are queued up, ready to drive the action.

Will the earnings provide a catalyst? Most are good with good guidance. There are some guidance misses and warnings, however, and some analysts are talking around this being the near term peak in results. No doubt weak guidance from big names dampens enthusiasm.

As discussed Thursday, this earnings season we are a bit reluctant to ride too many through earnings or take on new positions with the intention of holding then through the results. Typically that is not our favorite play and with some guidance issues it becomes even less so.

Picking good entries after earnings is the preferred method as the skeletons are out of the
closet. Banks are an example. JNJ has filled the earnings gap higher.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:58 pm

CHARTS

DJ30: The Dow is in a 2-day fade after almost 3 weeks upside that approached but didn't really threaten the early June peak. The banks and some industrials perked up the past week, fading back to end the week, setting up the same as the Dow. DJ30 looks set up very well to continue
higher, and some earnings this week could be the driver.

SP500: SP500 broke through the June and March highs and is now testing as well, fading Thursday and Friday, waiting for the 10 day EMA to catch up. Set up well, waiting on earnings.

NASDAQ: Rallied to a new high early week then slid laterally into Friday. NASDAQ big names continue to push upside. The big change was the demise of NFLX and its near-term trend. Gapped lower on earnings, recovered off the lows but then stalled out. Other big names are in modest pullbacks similar to DJ30 stocks, i.e. fading Thursday and Friday to test near support. MSFT reported strong results, INTC is set to release results in the coming week.
NASDAQ continues in its uptrend.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:48 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: NASDAQ started the week testing the 50 day MA in the middle of its 7+ month uptrend channel. It fell from the new high in very volatile action as big NASDAQ FAANG names missed earnings. GOOG tried to salvage things with its good results, and NASDAQ gapped higher only to reverse and then sell off into Monday. AAPL is now trying to do the repair work, and Thursday it was working. Friday was a pause session. A test of good support in a good uptrend channel. A good initial bounce from that support. Now, will other stocks step in to fill the NFLX, cloud void, e.g. MSFT and company? That is the question.

SP500: SP500 got the shakes as well late the prior week and into Monday, but it held the 20 day EMA near the top of its channel, then Thursday pulled that intraday low to high reversal. Friday it added some more but on low volume. SP500 is still fighting to find a new high over the January peak, another 33ish points away. When it gets there, when it catches the car (as
a dog, right?), what will it do? Volatility like NASDAQ and the growth sectors, or just power on through? Don't forget, even if it is getting new money or money from the small caps, it too is about to hit the same new highs.

DJ30: The Dow struggled more on the trade issues than SP500, but it handled them well enough. Gapped lower Thursday, sold to the 20 day EMA for the first visit there in four weeks, but recovered intraday to hold the 10 day EMA. Friday DJ30 bounced from there. No volume, but it too is in its uptrend channel that is just part of the larger cup base formed off the January all-time high. DJ30 has over 1100 points to gain to meet that high, and that, given all the trouble the other indices have had when they hit new highs, is quite comforting for more upside.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:32 pm

Six factors to watch as the bull market pushes itself toward an endurance record

By Sue Chang

In just three weeks, it would become the longest bull run ever

1. Earnings
2. Economy
3. Market Breadth
4. Market Valuations; S&P 500 PE 21
5. Trade Conflict
6. Bull-Market Correction



Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/six-f ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:06 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Apple (AAPL)... iPhone, iPad, AirPods
Sony (SNE)... electronics
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)... semiconductors
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)... life sciences giant
SodaStream (SODA)... sparkling water
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)... food processing
Church & Dwight (CHD)... Arm & Hammer, Orajel, OxiClean

Humana (HUM)... health insurance
Eli Lilly (LLY)... prescription drugs
AstraZeneca (AZN)... prescription drugs
Pfizer (PFE)... prescription drugs
Medtronic (MDT)... insulin pumps and pacemakers
W.W. Grainger (GWW)... safety gloves, ladders, and more
Ingersoll-Rand (IR)... industrial equipment
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
ConocoPhillips (COP)... oil and gas
EOG Resources (EOG)... oil and gas
Phillips 66 (PSX)... oil and gas
Williams Partners (WPZ)... oil and gas
Mosaic (MOS)... fertilizer
CF Industries (CF)... fertilizer
Waste Management (WM)... trash and recycling
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)... railroads
Kansas City Southern (KSU)... railroads

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Ford Motor (F)... Big Three automaker
Sears Holdings (SHLD)... retail "old guard"
Papa John's (PZZA)... founder's latest missteps
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)... casinos and resorts
Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI)... TV stations

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:52 am

These five indicators suggest stocks will break out to new highs

by Stephanie Landsman

1. Valuation
Based on forward price-earnings ratios, he pointed out stocks look relatively cheap.

2. Economic Backdrop
3. Liquidity
4. Investor Psychology

5. Momentum
"A market in motion tends to stay in motion unless otherwise acted upon. You look at something just as simple as the 200-day moving average," he said. "We really haven't even crossed below that even with two or three downdrafts this year. So, all in all, momentum signals suggest stay in this risk on position for now."



Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/12/these-f ... KW,1OXF2,1
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:35 am

MONDAY

Earnings winding down, data ratcheting up.

The Fed will fear inflation more than it does the yield curve. Ironic is it not? The Fed desperately wanted to create inflation, and now it has it but is acting to prevent what it wanted to the point it will stall out the expansion. Insanity.

Shocks such as the lira drop should be temporary as it only underscores the US strength vis- -vis other countries. The dollar is showing that as well.

Thus, in theory, the market should hold and continue higher if the economy is going to do the same. Ah, but the Fed. The market is a forecaster, not follower.

New highs being sold on higher volume. Leaders sacked as well, a few recovering to higher highs, most not. The trend remains but it could very well be the bucking at new highs suggesting economic issues ahead thanks to the Fed tightening into a flat yield curve -- as it always does.

Many are dismissing the trouble at new highs, letting moves by AAPL and a few others trowel over the cracks others are showing. They may turn out 100% correct in ignoring those other stocks, but we have seen tops start this way before.

Heck, they all start this way with some of the big horses missing revenues and even bottom line earnings. They are symptomatic of a larger problem, and when such huge market cap stocks roll over, the market does as well.

Sometimes. Often when the powerful leaders break, everything typically breaks as well and resets. The confluence of the Fed, the balky market, and the almost blind confidence that things can only remain good can be treacherous.

Accordingly, we have to be cautious but we also cannot for certain say a top is definitely forming; no one can. Thus, we still look at possible upside from leaders still leaders and in great patterns.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:47 am

CHARTS

Not a collapse, not a reversal. The indices are still in uptrends, some in better shape than others, still trying to hit and hold new highs, still struggling each time they get there. One step forward, a half step backward, right? This is the most frustrating uptrending market in recent
memory.

NASDAQ: The focus of most attention, NASDAQ came close to a new high this time around, didn't hit it, then gapped downside to the 10 day EMA Friday. Rising, above average volume so once again some distribution as NASDAQ backs down from the highs. No trend break, not even close, but if the sellers take it down each time it hits this level, that eventually forms serious
resistance and a top.

SP500: Very similar action to NASDAQ, gapping downside to the 20 day EMA after moving to a higher high over the late July peak. Gapped down, tight range on the session, volume moving up to average for the first time in two weeks. Still in the upper range of its channel formed as it moved off the bottom of the base. As with NASDAQ, still trending upside, no issue with breaking the uptrend but some high volume selling at the higher high.

DJ30: Gapped lower through the 10 day EMA, landing on the 20 day EMA. Higher volume but still below average. No real issues, in the upper half of the channel, still working on a pattern, a pretty good one.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:57 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Apple (AAPL)... tech giant
Amazon (AMZN)... online-shopping giant

Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
First Data (FDC)... mobile-payments security
RingCentral (RNG)... cloud-based communications
Disney (DIS)... entertainment giant
Michael Kors (KORS)... apparel

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)... apparel
Target (TGT)... retail
Ross Stores (ROST)... retail
Costco Wholesale (COST)... retail
SodaStream (SODA)... kitchen appliances
W.W. Grainger (GWW)... gloves, ladders, equipment
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
CarGurus (CARG)... auto research
Eli Lilly (LLY)... prescription drugs
Pfizer (PFE)... prescription drugs
Merck (MRK)... prescription drugs

Norfolk Southern (NSC)... railroads
Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)... railroads
CSX (CSX)... railroads
Wabtec (WAB)... railroad technologies
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
ConocoPhillips (COP)... oil and gas
Phillips 66 (PSX)... oil and gas



NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Coeur Mining (CDE)... precious metals
Hecla Mining (HL)... precious metals
Century Aluminum (CENX)... aluminum
Western Digital (WDC)... hard drives
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)... poultry

Source: Daily Wealth
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