InvestIdeas

Higher prices, layoffs, and economic nosedives: What Trump’s trade war could mean for you

Source: Quartz

https://qz.com/1220847/what-trumps-tari ... nosedives/

A Trump trade war with China could hit these industries hardest

by John W. Schoen

Singling out technology, telecommunications and intellectual property products to start.

Other industries that would be prime targets for higher Chinese tariffs include aircraft (with $15 billion in 2016 exports), electrical machinery ($12 billion), machinery ($11 billion) and vehicles ($11 billion).

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/21/a-trump ... KW,1EUQR,1

China Hits Back at Trump With Planned Tariffs on $3 Billion of U.S. Imports

China announced plans for reciprocal tariffs on $3 billion of imports from the U.S., including products from steel to pork, after President Donald Trump’s move to order levies on a range of Chinese goods sent markets plunging.

China plans to take legal action against the U.S. under the World Trade Organization framework, the Commerce Ministry said in a statement Friday.

It plans a 25 percent tariff on U.S. pork imports and 15 percent tariffs on American steel pipes, fruit and wine, the statement said.

In the statement, China urged the U.S. to resolve the trade dispute via dialogue.

Trump earlier instructed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to levy tariffs on at least $50 billion in Chinese imports.

Within 15 days, USTR will come up with a proposed list of products that will face higher tariffs.

Source: Bloomberg.com

China hits back at Trump with retaliatory tariffs on 128 US imports, worth US$3 billion a year

US fruit and pork are among products targeted by Beijing with tariffs of up to 25 per cent

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... ffs-128-us

US names Chinese products under proposed tariffs, including robotics, information tech and aerospace

The U.S. Trade Representative says the proposed tariffs target products that benefit China's industrial plans but minimize the affect on the U.S. economy.

The Trump administration's stance on tariffs sparked fears of a trade war with China, which imposed taxes on U.S. food products imported there such as pork.

by Liz Moyer & Jacob Pramuk

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/us-name ... KW,1FR5M,1

Trade War Stats

US$60 billion of imports is equivalent to 12 per cent of China’s 2017 imports into the US; a US consumer will pay an extra 3 per cent – something, but not significant.

For the US consumer, US$60 billion is just 2.6 per cent of imports so the tax will add a meagre one-third of 1 per cent to overall costs.

Source: SCMP

How Soon Should We Worry About a Trade War?

The next few months will be crucial in how the current conflict develops

By JOHN JAGERSON AND WADE HANSEN

The tariff war is still just made up of threats right now. Uncertainty is rising, which has already affected market prices, but the longer-term effects of tariffs will remain unknown until something is implemented.

This week’s reaction to trade issues has largely been confined to stocks (so far), which is also a positive. However, if stress starts to spread into the bond market, investors should become more concerned about a support break.

Source: SlingShot Trader

https://investorplace.com/2018/04/is-th ... 240&num=01

not vested

Trump can bring more harm

by Andrew Wong Wai-hong

Everyone initially thought that a China-US trade dispute could be resolved through consultation. But the issue took a wrong turn again and again last week, causing turbulence to the US stock market.

Prominent US investor Jack Bogle, dubbed "God of Mutual Funds," said he has not seen such market fluctuations in his 66 years of professional investments.

There is no denying the basis of Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on goods imported from China. But did he make that decision to benefit American companies or out of his individual political considerations?

This can become a key factor on whether the US will win or lose in this dispute. It can also serve as a major factor whether the two countries will engage in a full-blown trade war.

After he took office, Trump did a lot which his predecessor, Barack Obama, didn't want to do. But is Trump just putting on a show, or does he truly want to do something to resolve "weak" Obama foreign policies that pose problems to the US?

When Trump ordered US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement right after he took office last year, many analysts believed it could later lead to a trade war.

Many countries in the Asia Pacific lost faith in the US as the TPP was the Obama administration's strategy to "return to Asia." The TPP agreement aimed to stimulate US exports and cement Washington's important relations with the Asia-Pacific region.

Trump wants to launch a trade war against China, citing a World Trade Organization provision and claims that China steel and aluminum exports pose a threat to US national security. But how many WTO members support this Trump claim? How will Trump win a trade war with China without adequate international support?

Trump has threatened to pull the US out of the WTO. In the event that he makes good on this threat, this move can usher in the real crisis.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0409&sid=2

Eric Peters: “China’s Best Play Is To Let The US Stock Market Crash”

by TYLER DURDEN

Source: TTR

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2018/04 ... ket-crash/

Expect tough talk when US trade hawks visit China, not an end to the row

Analysts say next week’s trip will help to ease tensions, but the dispute won’t be resolved any time soon

“The talk will be tough, and it’s unlikely they can solve the conflict in just one trip. This confrontation will continue for a while.”

China is expected to say more about pledges to open its markets made by Xi at the Boao Forum this month, including new energy vehicles. It could also open the internet sector and is expected to push forward negotiations to join the WTO’s government procurement agreement.

Early this month, the US released details of US$50 billion of Chinese imports, some 1,300 products, that could be subject to punitive 25 per cent tariffs. The plan is open for public comment until May 11 and a hearing for US businesses will be held on May 15.

Beijing fired back with plans to impose the same amount of tariffs on US products such as soybeans, airlines and vehicles.

A new US investigation into China’s cloud computing industry is also being considered.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... -china-not