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<Research Report>CICC: US First Extra Tariffs on China To Slow Overseas CN Non-financials Profit Rise to 14%

CICC said China and the US are approaching a stage where the implementation of their announced tariff lists and amounts takes place.

With effect from 6 July, the US' additional tariffs on US$34 billion Chinese imports may be in force.

The research house said the development of China-US trade frictions can have three scenarios.

Scenario 1: China and the US will impose extra 25% tariffs on US$50 billion goods of each other. By estimates, CICC said Chinese A-share/ overseas non-financial companies will see around 10%/ 14% decline in 12-month profit growth rate.

Scenario 2: the US will slap additional 10% tariffs on US$200 billion goods on the basis of scenario 1.

Scenario 3: the US will slap additional 10% tariffs on US$200 billion goods on the basis of scenario 2.

Under scenario 2 and 3, the abovementioned profit growth rate will decelerate to 6%/ 8% and 2%/ 1%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

US tariffs take aim at Made in China 2025 plans in first salvoes of trade war

America’s first tranche of duties will hit many core components of Beijing’s flagship policy to boost its hi-tech sector

The main sectors to be hit will be machinery and electronics as well as information and communications technology.

It will affect equipment used to process meat and fruit, as well as metal, and to make rubber or plastic goods.

Tariffs on printed circuit assemblies, transistors and semiconductors will disrupt the global supply chain. Also on the list are products such as LEDs, parts for televisions and video recording equipment, radars and radio equipment.

Many of the targeted products cover the automotive sector, with duties slapped on engines and motors, public transport vehicles and key vehicle parts like ball bearings.

Key US sectors that will bear the brunt from China’s retaliation:-

1. The Chinese tariff list also covers mineral fuels, crude oil and liquefied propane.
2. Agricultural and food products, including soybeans, cereal, fish and crustaceans, beef and fruits.
3. Chinese tariffs targeting electric cars, minibuses, off-road vehicles, and trucks.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diploma ... st-salvoes

2018.07.07【文茜世界周報】川普掀起貿易戰　要讓美國再次偉大
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuJB6q1 ... AU&index=5


2018.07.08【文茜世界周報】中美貿易開戰　大陸「質量型」制裁武器上膛
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4NJWkl ... -pKgdwMSAU

Macau casinos could get caught in US-China trade war crossfire, say analysts

Three out of the six major operators in Macau are owned by US-listed companies

Beijing could target the US casinos with social media campaigns calling on punters to gamble more “patriotically”, while limitations on visas to Macau was a more unlikely move as it would hurt all casinos.

“Some high-volume, VIP players could face a more severe economic impact, depending on their personal financial exposure. This could lead to fewer VIPs making the trip to Macau and, in a harsh scenario, a decline in consumer sentiment”.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2 ... y-analysts

Here’s How China Can Crush US Tech Firms If Trade War Escalates

by TYLER DURDEN

Out of all US tech companies, Apple is perhaps most vulnerable to China’s retaliation.

The Chinese government has a more direct route: hitting M&A deals, like scuttling Qualcomm’s planned takeover of NXP.

Chipmakers and other tech companies derive a larger percentage of their sales from China than any other US industry.

Source: Zero Hedge

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2018/07 ... escalates/

Hong Kong should be worried about the US-China trade war. Here’s why

At the very least, the dispute has the potential to directly impact the work of around a quarter of the city’s four million labour force

I am particularly reminded of July 1, 1997, the day the Thai Baht crashed. By early 1998, our economy was facing its worst crash in decades.

We have more than 100,000 trading companies. Many of them are tiny, but they still employ more than 800,000 people. They often depend on a single relationship with a single manufacturer exporting from the mainland.

An estimated 70,000 Hong Kong-owned manufacturing plants operate in the Pearl River Delta region, most of them in export processing. “The common worry is what happens next is going to hit us harder because it covers more consumer goods such as textiles, garments, food and electronics.”

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-bus ... -war-heres

IMF warns Trump trade war could cost global economy US$430 billion

All economies would suffer from further escalation, but the US would find itself ‘as the focus of global retaliation’, the International Monetary Fund said

Despite highlighting greater risks for the world economy, the fund left its global growth forecast of 3.9 per cent for both this year and next unchanged.

However, it forecast sharp slowdowns for the EU, UK and Japan amid weaker growth and increasing political tension.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/global-ec ... nomy-us430

Emerging markets brace for a trade-war blow-out

Asian currencies such as South Korea’s won and Taiwan’s dollar are set to weaken further,

Bank Indonesia will meet on Thursday whether to proceed with a fourth rate increase this year to stem declines in the rupiah, which is hovering near its lowest level since October 2015.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... QE8gG2o.99

2018.07.15【文茜世界財經週報】「美國必勝」川普追加兩千億　升高戰爭規模
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWqsJpv ... IXpxu&t=0s

Investors With $542 Billion Fret Biggest Risk Since Euro Crisis

A trade war now clearly dominates as the largest-known unknown source of potential downside for investors worldwide.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-wa ... 03389.html