US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:22 am

MONDAY

Lots of talk about an overdone market with Way too low volatility that surely must lead to a selloff it is said. Again, a selloff will come, but look at how the indices have acted of late: RUTX, SP400 on big runs and are now resting. SP500, DJ30, NASDAQ had rested but then last week they started back upside with nice rallies.

Put another way, there is virtuous rotation ongoing as an area rallies to gains, then rests in place or with modest tests while other parts of the market rally. That means some new money still coming into stocks because if not, money would be pulled from one area and put into another, with the former falling while the latter rises.

For now the action in the indices is very good and the action in leadership is very good. They are moving up, resting, then moving up again. The algorithms are still out there but thus far the new highs have not been sold.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:40 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ moved higher as well, overcoming a gap lower to post a very modest gain. Excellent week, however, continuing the rally to higher hand higher highs off the 50 day MA test. Big help from FAANG stocks late in the week, e.g. GOOG, NFLX.


RUTX: So important to the market with its incredible recovery off the mid-August low, RUTX spent Tuesday to Friday working laterally in a very tight range after blasting off to a new high yet again on Monday. The rally put it in an overbought condition and it is trying to work it off while holding onto all the gains with that tight lateral move.

Typically it waits for or fades a bit to meet the rising 10 day EMA, and that is what gives the
move its rest and support for another break higher, all things remaining equal.


DJ30: Flat Friday after a week that saw DJ30 break higher Monday and resume the flurry of new highs after 2 weeks of rest. Excellent action.


SP500: Also took Friday off after a strong week that scored four new all-time highs. Similar to DJ30, SP500 broke higher out of a 2.5 week lateral consolidation, really aided by strength in financial stocks.


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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:40 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ moved higher as well, overcoming a gap lower to post a very modest gain. Excellent week, however, continuing the rally to higher hand higher highs off the 50 day MA test. Big help from FAANG stocks late in the week, e.g. GOOG, NFLX.


RUTX: So important to the market with its incredible recovery off the mid-August low, RUTX spent Tuesday to Friday working laterally in a very tight range after blasting off to a new high yet again on Monday. The rally put it in an overbought condition and it is trying to work it off while holding onto all the gains with that tight lateral move.

Typically it waits for or fades a bit to meet the rising 10 day EMA, and that is what gives the
move its rest and support for another break higher, all things remaining equal.


DJ30: Flat Friday after a week that saw DJ30 break higher Monday and resume the flurry of new highs after 2 weeks of rest. Excellent action.


SP500: Also took Friday off after a strong week that scored four new all-time highs. Similar to DJ30, SP500 broke higher out of a 2.5 week lateral consolidation, really aided by strength in financial stocks.


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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:59 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Bank of America (BAC)... "Big Four" bank
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)... "Big Four" bank
Citigroup (C)... "Big Four" bank
Paychex (PAYX)... payroll processor
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)... online brokerage
eBay (EBAY)... Internet auctions
Netflix (NFLX)... the Internet's cable alternative
Intel (INTC)... semiconductors
Biogen (BIIB)... biotech
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)... Big Pharma
Eli Lilly (LLY)... Big Pharma
Pfizer (PFE)... Big Pharma
Cigna (CI)... health insurance
Boston Scientific (BSX)... medical devices
BP (BP)... oil supermajor
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A)... oil supermajor
HollyFrontier (HFC)... oil refiner
Valero Energy (VLO)... oil refiner
Cummins (CMI)... diesel engines
Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
3M (MMM)... manufacturing
D.R. Horton (DHI)... homebuilder
KB Home (KBH)... homebuilder
Home Depot (HD)... home improvement
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
Waste Management (WM)... trash and recycling
Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF)... pet food

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Rite Aid (RAD)... drugstores
Kroger (KR)... grocery stores
Kraft Heinz (KHC)... Big Food
Papa John's International (PZZA)... pizza
Navient (NAVI)... student loans

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:55 pm

Will the U.S. stock market ever fall again?

By Avi Gilbur

Price action suggests the S&P 500 is attempting to reach 2,611 points by the end of 2017

As for Elliott Wave analysis, we are again in a minor 3rd wave rally.

Still, I believe we’ll see the 2,400-point region on the S&P 500 SPX, -0.18% in the not-too-distant future once we complete all of wave (3).

The current rally off the Sept. 25 low is best counted as wave (iii) of iii of 5 of (v) of (3), which you can see on the daily chart.

Also, since this wave (iii) has now extended beyond its standard extensions, it suggests that the market may be stretching to push to the next major larger-degree extension in the 2,611 region.


Source: Market Watch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-t ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:26 pm

This Pullback Is Important… but It's Not What You Think

By D.R. BARTON, JR.

From yesterday's all-time S&P 500 high, a modest grinding bull pullback-and-consolidation range would entail a 2% to 3% drop.

A deeper drop to the support level at the bottom of the June-July box would be a very normal 5.5% pullback.

And we haven't had a pullback greater than 5% since the short-lived "Brexit" sell-off of June, 2016, more than 15-and-a-half months ago.

Should events come to it, the next line of defense is the bottom of the February-May box.

And a drop that doesn't go below that key support level would give us a 9.9% pullback – the likes of which we haven't seen since mid-to-late August 2015 – that's just shy of an official correction.

The bottom line is that a pullback from here, up to a certain point, is normal.

The Bottom Line: Until we've pierced the key levels shown above, short- and intermediate-term pullbacks should be seen as fantastic buying opportunities.


Source: Money Morning

https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/10/thi ... /#deeplink
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:46 am

MONDAY

Earnings are taking over the headlines as the banks started the show and now the floodgates open. The initial response was not great as the banks faded -- for the most part.

The question is whether the market has room for more upside on some good earnings after the gains in DJ30, SOX and to a lesser extent, NASDAQ and SP500.

As noted before the real question is whether RUTX and SP400, after their tests, are ready to take up leadership again and move back upside, getting money pushed their way, as the large cap indices take a break after their move up that started as RUTX and SP400 started to take a breather.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:56 am

CHARTS

DJ30: Nice steady trend higher on the week with upside days and minor downside. Climbing the 10 day EMA with good volume. Now up 5 weeks on this move and that is extended for the Dow in these rallies. It is getting help from the DJ20 transports as they broke to a new high Thursday. Gave it up Friday, but right there.

SP500: Slight trend higher on the week as well, the 10 day EMA catching up with the move. SP500 broke higher to start September, moving off the 50 day MA, then tested in a lateral move through late September. Then a new break higher and rally that took it through the 2007 upper trendline. Nice move, now testing again. Not necessarily that overextended.

NASDAQ: Similar to SP500, NASDAQ came off the 50 day MA in late September versus early that month, and it rallied into the prior Friday. Last week it continued trending higher just over the 10 day EMA though at a much slower pace. Trying to consolidate while holding the gains. Not sure it can, but not as extended as DJ30.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:37 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor
Northrop Grumman (NOC)... "offense" contractor
Boeing (BA)... "offense" contractor
Raytheon (RTN)... "offense" contractor

Brink's (BCO)... "cash transportation"
American Express (AXP)... credit cards
Bank of Montreal (BMO)... Canadian bank
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)... Canadian bank
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)... Canadian bank

Kemper (KMPR)... insurance
Markel (MKL)... insurance
Entergy (ETR)... utilities
El Paso Electric (EE)... utilities
American States Water (AWR)... utilities
KB Home (KBH)... homebuilder
D.R. Horton (DHI)... homebuilder
Toll Brothers (TOL)... homebuilder
Meritage Homes (MTH)... homebuilder

Hilton Worldwide (HLT)... hotels
La Quinta (LQ)... hotels
Wyndham Worldwide (WYN)... hotels
Xenia Hotels & Resorts (XHR)... hotels
CBRE Group (CBG)... real estate "picks and shovels"
Square (SQ)... mobile payments "picks and shovels"
Alibaba (BABA)... China's Amazon

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Kellogg (K)... food giant
General Mills (GIS)... food giant

General Electric (GE)... appliance giant
d**k's Sporting Goods (DKS)... sporting goods
Avon Products (AVP)... beauty products

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:13 pm

This Chart Helps You Keep Tabs on the Market's "Health"

By D.R. BARTON, JR.

The first place I normally look is at "market breadth." That's simply a measure of how many stocks are participating in an up move.

Lots of U.S. stocks are strong and receiving broad participation.


Over the past two months – and indeed, longer – the big non-U.S. markets have actually been outperforming our outperformance.


The Bottom Line: You have to be invested right now, because if you're not, you're missing out on a bull market – bull market gains, specifically – for the ages.


Source: Money Morning

https://moneymorning.com/2017/10/17/thi ... ts-health/
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