US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Feb 18)

Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:36 am

MONDAY

There is a lot more of the same in terms of news and economics. The political discourse descended to new lows the past week and the market sold with it, but that could easily have been worse.

Ironically, if the indices bounce early week, the question then shifts to whether they hold the move and continue or roll over again. If they sell, no question. If they bounce, I would hazard that the indices will hold the move this time off the double bottom test of NASDAQ, the ABCD from DJ30, the SOX triangle.

We are looking at plays in line with the positive patterns on NASDAQ and SOX, but of course cannot ignore the downside in the event this time the algorithms do not buy the dip, this time a double dip.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:59 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: Showing a doji over the 2016 trendline, holding at the prior week's low and the 61% Fibonacci retracement. That has NASDAQ showing a double bottom at that retracement, and that pattern at that level is a good rally point. Compare to the action May to early July: Rally, double bottom at the 61%/78% Fibonacci retracement, then a rally to a new high.

DJ30: Yes DJ30 sold off Thursday with the market, Friday as well. This all inside the July to August run to a new high. DJ30 has stair-stepped back to the 50 day MA's and the 78% Fibonacci retracement. That, despite the selling, puts DJ30 in great position to rebound again.

SP500: Broke the 2016 trendline Thursday, sold farther Friday, showing a doji -- just as the prior Friday. Of all the large cap indices, SP500 shows the most Gartman-like concern: new low to end the week after a new low the prior week. We went ahead and picked up a partial downside position on SP500 to end the week.

RUTX: Same action as SP400, just sharper. Held the 200 day the prior week, bounced, rolled back over and crashed the 200 day Thursday. A big selloff Friday with a gap lower, but recovering off the low to a doji with tail. On the Friday low it tested the May and some of the April lows. RUTX is in a range where it can find support to bounce. It likely attempts a recovery
early week, stalls at the 200 day, then heads down to test the January, March, April lows.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:31 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Procter & Gamble (PG)... Tide, Bounty, Crest
PepsiCo (PEP)... Pepsi, Gatorade, Frito-Lay
National Beverage (FIZZ)... LaCroix, Shasta, Faygo
Yum Brands (YUM)... Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)... chicken
Aflac (AFL)... insurance
Cigna (CI)... insurance
Progressive (PGR)... insurance
American Express (AXP)... credit cards
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Green Dot (GDOT)... prepaid credit cards
Nasdaq (NDAQ)... stock exchanges
H&R Block (HRB)... tax preparation
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)... online brokerage
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Salesforce (CRM)... "the power of the insider"
American Tower (AMT)... wireless infrastructure
Crown Castle International (CCI)... wireless infrastructure
Vantiv (VNTV)... mobile-payment "picks and shovels"
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)... video games
PulteGroup (PHM)... homebuilder
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)... cars and trucks
Carnival (CCL)... cruises
Vail Resorts (MTN)... ski resorts
Waste Management (WM)... "recession-proof business"
Align Technology (ALGN)... Invisalign
Franco-Nevada (FNV)... gold royalties
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)... natural gas
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos
AMC Entertainment (AMC)... movie theaters
JC Penney (JCP)... department stores
d**k's Sporting Goods (DKS)... sporting goods
Fossil (FOSL)... watches

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:28 am

Cramer: 6 Market Gremlins That Keep Putting Up Roadblocks

By JIM CRAMER

1. First is the president.
2. Second is a total lack of interest in the stock market other than FAANG.
3. Third, there is FAANG itself.
4. Fourth, the endless bearishness of hedge fund managers does weigh on us.
5. Fifth, the analysts and this better-than-expected ethos has been the bane of so many existences.
6. Sixth and final: An obsession with the Fed has kept out so many investors that it sickens me.


Source: The Street

http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:27 am

Tom Lee: History is pointing to a 5% drop in the market over the next month

by Akin Oyedele

One piece of evidence is the percentage of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange trading below their 200-day moving average, indicating their trending direction has turned downward.


Lee's year-end target of 2,275 implies an 8% drop from Friday's opening level. It's the lowest target among major strategists tracked by Bloomberg.


Art Cashin of UBS, highlighted another sign of caution, via SentimenTrader:

"The Dow indexes are out of gear. The Dow Transportation Average continues to badly lag its brother index, the Dow Industrial Average.

The Transports are not only below their 200-day average, they just dropped to a fresh multi-month low.

Yet the Industrials are more than 5% above their own 200-day average, a divergence which has tended to resolve to the downside for both indexes, especially in the shorter term."


Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tom-lee- ... 44198.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:36 pm

血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 27, 2017 9:19 pm

vested RWM (Russell 2000 Inverse ETF 1x)

3 Reasons to Dump Small-Cap ETFs Now

by Sanghamitra Saha

1. Weak Earnings

About 76.5% of the S&P 500 companies are already out with their earnings.

Total earnings for the small-cap index are down 14.1% from the year-ago period despite 6% higher revenues, with 61.1% beating EPS estimates and 62.2% beating revenue estimates, as per the latest Earnings Trends.

The Russell 2000 has seen earnings per share growth of just 0.1% in the second quarter.


2. Ebbing Prospects of Trump Bump


3. Weakness in Greenback


Source: Zacks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reason ... 04686.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 28, 2017 11:23 am

CHARTS

http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg

NASDAQ continues its rather solid 5 week consolidation of its last high, holding the early week bounce up to the 50 day MA's. Not selling, working on a positive pattern, not bad action.

DJ30 bounced from the 50 day MA early week, then spent the rest of the week testing laterally. Still a pretty solid ACBD pattern here as well, making the first bounce, and now after this test it needs to show a new break higher in the pattern.

SP500 made a big recovery Tuesday off the prior sharp selloff. After that, however, SP500 stalled out and then moved laterally the rest of the week. That closed it below the 50 day MA's, and the 2017 trendline. Precarious position for the large caps.

RUTX shows very similar action, posting a Friday gain but also a doji below the 200 day MA. This after a week of recovering from the prior sharp Thursday selloff.

SUMMARY: Three indices working on some pretty darn decent upside patterns. Three indices still unable to recover with any strength, and are also in real danger of breaking back lower. Which one takes charge is STILL the question for this upcoming week.

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 28, 2017 7:40 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)... Warren Buffett's holding company
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards
TransUnion (TRU)... credit reports
Vantiv (VNTV)... mobile-payments "picks and shovels"
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce powerhouse
Alibaba (BABA)... China's e-commerce powerhouse
Best Buy (BBY)... TVs, computers, appliances
HP (HPQ)... computers, printers
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Salesforce (CRM)... "the power of the insider"
Broadcom (AVGO)... semiconductors
Crown Castle (CCI)... wireless infrastructure
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... video games
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
Ferrari (RACE)... fast cars
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)... cars, trucks
Camping World (CWH)... recreational vehicles
La Quinta (LQ)... hotels
Vail Resorts (MTN)... ski resorts
Monster Beverage (MNST)... energy drinks
National Beverage (FIZZ)... LaCroix, Shasta, Faygo
Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)... chicken
Anthem (ANTM)... health insurance
Owens Corning (OC)... roofing, insulation
Caterpillar (CAT)... heavy equipment
Franco-Nevada (FNV)... precious metals royalties
Royal Gold (RGLD)... precious metals royalties
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Viacom (VIAB)... Nickelodeon, MTV, Comedy Central
Cinemark (CNK)... movie theaters
Regal Entertainment (RGC)... movie theaters
d**k's Sporting Goods (DKS)... sporting goods
Foot Locker (FL)... athletic apparel
Fossil (FOSL)... watches

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:08 pm

4 Reasons Investors are Cheering for Lower Taxes

The Trump administration made it clear that this coming week is going to be an all-out effort on their tax break plans. Everyone likes getting a personal tax break.

But here are the 4 reasons why we should also be cheering for a corporate tax break.

1) Lower corporate taxes = higher profits = higher fair value for stocks = higher stock prices in time

2) Higher profits = more money to pay out in dividends = higher stock prices in time

3) Higher profits = more money for stock buybacks = higher stock prices in time

4) Higher profits = more money in the hands of consumers = higher spending = higher corporate profits = higher stock prices in time.

When you add these four altogether you understand why the market was up last week.

And the higher the odds of these tax plans becoming law...the higher the stock market will go. As noted the other day...

Source: Zack's
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