US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Jul 20)

US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Jul 20)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:41 am

From Fast Money, CNBC:-

Melissa Lee brought in Douglas Yearley, CEO of Toll Brothers(TOL), to comment on the signs of life coming from the housing industry.

Yearley said the beginning of the spring housing season felt great. He said his company reported a 45% jump in orders in the first quarter and a 35% increase in backlog.

He said the clientele is strong, with 20% of the buyers purchasing in cash and the remaining putting down a sizable downpayment.

He said New York has been its best performing market, although it is looking for opportunities across the country.

Source: The Street
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Re: US - Housing 01 (Dec 09 - Feb 12)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:47 pm

Foiled Again in Real Estate! What to Do … By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

"You're not going to believe this one," my brother told me over the weekend.

He'd just gotten a bizarre call from a realtor…

REALTOR: Mr. Sjuggerud? Um… ahem… Do you remember that place you had a signed contract on two-and-a-half months ago?

MY BROTHER: Of course. I made a cash offer, as is, at the asking price. The seller accepted the offer and signed the papers. It's a short-sale, so I'm waiting for the bank's final approval.

REALTOR: Uh… well… the bank rejected your offer… Apparently, the bank has moved the property from its short-sale division to a fast-track liquidation division. The property is… uh… relisted.

MY BROTHER: Really?

REALTOR: Yeah… And, well, the asking price is now lower than your offer.

MY BROTHER: The bank rejected my as-is, cash offer… and immediately re-listed the property at a lower price?

REALTOR: That's it exactly. So are you interested in buying it… again?


If it weren't my own brother telling it, I wouldn't have believed it. The story seems too bizarre to be true.

Remember, he made a similar "as-is" CASH offer, ABOVE the asking price, on Grandma's house. He was rejected there, too.

What the heck is going on out there?

What's happening out there is exactly what happens during a "V" bottom after an investment bubble has burst…

This is it… This is the "capitulation" stage. Confusion reigns. And this is where you get GREAT prices…

At the banks, the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing… One part of the bank is telling its employees to get rid of real estate. And another department is trying to work things out with sellers. You don't know which part of the bank you'll get.

My brother seems to get the wrong department each time. But other friends have really scored…

Just yesterday, I heard from Will, a friend of a friend…

Will took my recent DailyWealth advice and just bought himself a foreclosed home that's "in good shape" and in a neighborhood I personally know. It is a desirable neighborhood. And get this… Will said he managed to get a 30-year mortgage at a rate of 3.75%.

Let's size this up…

• Because you're buying a real asset with leverage (the mortgage), you now have a cheap, 30-year bet AGAINST the U.S. dollar.

• You now have a bet on an asset that is the most affordable it's been in the history of America…

•… that you paid-next-to-nothing thing for, relative to its value or its replacement cost.

• Now you get to live in it for a few years (so you have no "rent").

• And then you can sell it with a (hopefully) good-sized TAX-FREE capital gain… as the real estate market simply goes from bad to less bad.

Adding all that up, you could hardly do better than simply following Will's lead, if you can swing it.

Just remember, for every deal that falls into place (like Will's), there are multiple deals (like my brother's) that don't.

If the deal doesn't work out, don't get discouraged. At this "V" bottom moment in real estate, there's no rhyme or reason why one deal will happen and one won't.

Don't blame anyone or get down. Just move on to the next attempt.

Remember, if you're doing it like Will – if you're buying for a place to live – only one deal has to go through. Then you're in.

Will did it. He crossed the finish line. Now it's your turn.

Get out there and FIND YOUR DEAL. As I've explained in previous essays, this is it. This is the best moment to buy a single-family home in the history of the U.S… and probably the best there'll ever be.

So stop procrastinating! Get out there and do it! Best of luck…


Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:40 am

How To Cripple the Real Estate Market in Five Easy Steps

Central Planning has crippled the real estate market to "save" their core constituency, the banks.

If you were head of Central Planning (howdy, Ben!) and were tasked with crippling the real estate market, here's what you would recommend.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar12/cripple-RE3-12.html
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:18 am

Housing Market Just Hit Bottom: Bank of America Merrill By Dan Freed

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Housing prices are bottoming now, though the recovery "will not begin in earnest until 2014," according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report released Thursday.

Merrill Lynch analysts had forecast in a November report that housing prices would drop another 8% from the second quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2013. However, the monthly supply of houses has declined and the number of "distressed" sales have lower than forecast.

"We expect moderate increases in these parameters over the next two years, but due to ongoing foreclosure prevention efforts, we think the levels will be lower than we previously believed," the report states.

Despite the earlier bottom, Merrill analysts are hardly more bullish on the recovery.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11466066 ... L_ttt_html
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:28 pm

The Housing Market's Biggest Hurdle By Shah Gilani

Forget about optimistic headlines on the housing market.

Whether it's record low mortgage rates, improvement in the Case-Shiller Index, higher housing starts, or any other report, the headlines don't tell the whole story - and the story matters.

The real story is that the housing bubble was inflated by cheap and abundant mortgage financing and a sustainable recovery is only possible if that story has a second chapter.

But, that's not happening.

In fact, structural changes in the mortgage industry are about to make buying a home loan a lot tougher than it has been in the last quarter century.

http://moneymorning.com/2012/03/23/the- ... st-hurdle/
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:34 pm

New Wave of Foreclosures Will Sink the Housing Market Rebound By David Zeiler

The long-anticipated housing market rebound will hit a speed bump this year as the number of foreclosures rises again.

With January's mammoth $26 billion settlement between five major banks and a group of state attorneys general, foreclosures that had been held up for a year or more are now moving forward.

The spike in foreclosures will arrive just as other data, such as the 5.1% increase in new construction permits reported on Tuesday, had begun to point to a housing market rebound.

"We expect to see foreclosure-related sales increase in 2012, particularly pre-foreclosure sales, as lenders start to more aggressively dispose of distressed assets held up by the mortgage servicing gridlock over the past 18 months," Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac, told CNN Money.

http://moneymorning.com/2012/03/23/new- ... t-rebound/
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 29, 2012 6:05 am

A surprising housing development we haven't seen since 2006

Matthew and Carina Hensley offered $10,000 more than the asking price for a three-bedroom house in suburban Seattle, then lost out to one of seven other bidders.

Their $270,000 proposal last month came with a family portrait and a letter introducing the couple, their eight-month-old daughter, Harper, and their desire to build a family in the Renton, Washington, house with a yard backing onto a woody hillside.

Bidding wars, absent from most parts of the U.S. residential market since its peak in 2006, are erupting from Seattle and Silicon Valley to Miami and Washington, D.C.

The inventory of homes hovers close to a six-year low, while an increase in jobs and record affordability are tempting more buyers.

The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes jumped 14 percent in February from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.


Source: Bloomberg
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:30 am

The Second Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming, And Is About To Kill Any Hopes Of A "Housing Bottom" by Tyler Durden

In what appears to be surprising news for some, Reuters has an article titled "Americans brace for next foreclosure wave" whose key premise is that "a painful part two of the [housing] slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures."

And while many will no longer be able to live mortgage free, forcing them to go out and rent (and no longer be able to afford incremental iGizmos), it also means that the prevalent price of homes is about to take another major tumble, making buffoons out of all those who, once again, called for a housing bottom in early 2012.

Here's the simply math: there will be no housing bottom until the 9 million excess homes clear. Period. Until then it is a buyer's market, even if said buyer is unable to obtain bank financing, as ultimately it will be the seller who is forced to monetize (or vacate if underwater) their home in a world of ever diminishing cashflows. The fear of the supply onslaught will only make the dumpage that much faster.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/second-fo ... ing-bottom
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 09, 2012 7:46 pm

Here's How to Get the Best Deal Possible on Housing By Brett Eversole

Last week, I made an offer on my first foreclosure.

In my hunt for a good buy, I've learned something shocking about the bank-owned real estate market.

Here's how one real estate veteran explained it to me…

"Look Brett," he said. "Banks aren't real estate companies. They're using clearing houses to move the properties. These clearing houses are a few guys in a room trying to move hundreds of properties as soon as possible.

They don't answer the phones or return e-mails. They just list the properties. If they don't get offers, they lower the price."

I've experienced this firsthand…

I just put in an offer on a property. It's been on the market for about two months. The original list price was $223,900. After a month, the price dropped to $213,900. And just this week, it dropped again… down to $199,900.

In just two months, the list price on this home fell 11%. Today, it's listed for $97 a square foot. To put that in perspective… a similar house down the street sold for over $180 a square foot in 2005. That's almost double today's price.

And this isn't an isolated case…

In March, I saw the same thing happen with a similar foreclosure I was considering. That home was listed for $249,900 in December. The price fell three times in the next three months. It finally sold for $214,900… 14% below the original list price. The selling price was just $93 a square foot.

It's clear to me… The foreclosure market is saturated. The banks are willing to clear these properties for ANY price.

That means you could get an outrageous deal if you buy right now…

The average American family could afford a $200,000 Florida home selling for roughly $100 a foot. As the housing market recovers over the next few years, this house could easily sell for closer to $300,000, or $150 per square foot.

That's a 50% tax-free gain, if it's your primary residence.

And it gets better…

The particular property I'm looking at is being sold through Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae apparently never learned its lesson in the mortgage debacle. It's willing to finance this property with just a 3% down payment. In short, you could put $6,000 down… and make a $100,000 gain as the market recovers. Not bad!

Could the housing market fall farther? And could my price projections be wrong? Of course, both of my assumptions could be wrong.

But today's price is so low, I'm certain I can make money on my housing "trade."

If you aren't in the market for a home… maybe you should be. This is one of the best times in history to buy.

Start with your local foreclosure listings. You can easily view them here. And you can find properties like the one I'm looking at – where you don't need a big down payment – here.

From my experience, foreclosures are a minefield. But you only need to find one gem to get an unbelievable deal. Get out there and find it today.

That's what I'm doing, as we speak…


Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Housing 02 (Mar 12 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 10, 2012 8:08 am

11 Irrefutable Signs of a Real Estate Recovery By Louis Basenese

Auto sales. Consumer confidence. Manufacturing. Retail Sales. Exports. You name it.

Over the last six months, nearly every facet of the U.S. economy has shown improvement. And the real estate market is no exception.

Here’s the irrefutable proof:

http://yolotraderalerts.com/?p=3787&utm ... the%201%25
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