Europe - ECB (May 08 - Dec 24)

Europe - ECB (May 08 - Dec 24)

Postby winston » Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:49 am

Next Thursday, the European Central is expected to cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 1%, and Bank of England policymakers are expected to hold off on additional stimulus measures for the U.K.'s tepid economy.

Source: TheStreet.com
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Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby tonylim » Sun Dec 04, 2011 11:29 am

Angela Merkel is ready to sanction a bigger role for the European Central Bank in exchange for a deal on closer fiscal union

A €1 trillion cash injection for the troubled eurozone economy is being prepared by the European Central Bank ahead of a series of key crisis summits this week.

Mario Draghi, the new president of the ECB, is said to be working on a plan this weekend which would pave the way for a colossal market intervention in European sovereign bonds.

The plan would only be executed if Europe’s leaders reach agreement on a broader political reform of the currency bloc — imposing strict budget controls on nations struggling to control their state finances.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, are due to meet in Paris tomorrow ahead of a European Union summit in Brussels on Friday.

Details of an expanded role for the ECB in controlling the crisis could be unveiled at its rate-setting meeting on Thursday.

It is understood that the ECB is willing to more than double its existing bond-buying efforts if it is protected from any possible losses. A plan has been discussed that would see Europe’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, insure the central bank against losses from the bonds.

Some of the cash could come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is said to be willing to provide about €200 billion (£170 billion) to help resolve the crisis.

The ECB’s role would be restricted to stabilising prices in Europe’s bond markets — preventing the yields on Spanish or Italian debt from spiralling out of control.

The intervention would be presented as a stop-gap measure to ease market pressures while the eurozone transitions towards closer fiscal union.

Although Merkel has previously resisted an increased role for the ECB, she is said to be willing to accept a ramped-up bond-buying programme on these terms.

Economists warn that Britain faces a grim outlook even if a euro deal is cobbled together, and a dramatic and sustained downturn if the euro is allowed to disintegrate.

Economists at Price Waterhouse Coopers, analysing last week’s forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), say it implies a prolonged squeeze on consumer spending such as never seen before in the post-war period.

In the 10 years to 2014, spending per person will fall by an average of 0.2% a year, the previous low having been a 1.3% average rise in the 10 years to 1983.

“The squeeze on consumers — and so on those selling to consumers — is quite unprecedented in post-war history,” said John Hawksworth, chief UK economist at PWC. “Given that consumer spending data only goes back to 1948 it is not possible to say if there was ever such a severe real consumer squeeze before that.”

Capital Economics warned that the new credit crunch facing the economy will mean outright recession in 2012, with a 0.5% drop in gross domestic product, followed by growth of just 0.5% in 2013.

“The OBR and Bank of England have revised down their forecasts but they still look optimistic to us,” said Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics.

Source: The Sunday Times - UK
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 01 (May 08 - Nov 11)

Postby Chinaman » Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:20 pm

QE for EU, interest rate gg to drop liao...inflation is unaviodable...stock will cheong up, momentarily?
so ? buy gold or equities, huh? my inner tot..what think u bro & sis.??

German chanellor Angela Merkel & france gg to inject 1 trillion Euro, in short now they treat those cancer patients (PIIG) with medicine instead as sympton.....if still cannot cure them then send them to hospice and let them die of natural death.....

in layman term, these piig countries for decades been over-spend no savings, then borrow money from 'loan shark' now cant even afford to pay interest, so ask aro their rich friend & relative for help..where got logic, got money spend like a duke, no money ask people for help.....

Remember during asia crsis time Indonesia (Habebe) & Malaysian (Mathatir) wanted to borrow money from our lau Goh , we refused to lend them and they are not happy, cunning fox Dr M then swallowed our OTC money...so wat i m gg to pt out is in the end 'rescue money' come from the country citizen be it German or France for this case...IMHO
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby Chinaman » Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:36 pm

December 01, 2011
Germany Suggests Euro Nations Set Up Debt-Reduction Funds.

December 04, 2011
Germany Would Move 500 Billion Euros of Debt Into Fund

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-1 ... -fund.html

look like, another great idea ...repackaging the toxic products to confuse people...
why set-up fund to pay debt, hmms US print money, EU set up fund....but then where the fund money come from???......can any1 enlighten me.
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby kennynah » Sun Dec 04, 2011 11:01 pm

markets always move in anticipation of recovery...

the eu crisis first came to light in march 2010 with greece debts surfacing...and while we are still getting news of other eu nations in trouble, it is important to realize that most of the "unknowns" have been made known. this is a major catalyst for euro to rally...

but overall, i think that euro will not be able to stay strong against the dollar in the long run if more money easing measures are taken... especially if their growth takes a hit...UK already lowered their 2011 GDP from 3% to 1% and when other eu nations like germany and france should also down sixe their growth forecast, i think these will make their euros weaker in 2012/13

my 2 cents speculation
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 08, 2011 9:33 pm

ECB cuts rates to record low on recession fears by Marc Jones

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a point on Thursday to counter the twin threats of recession and deflation in the euro zone, and is expected to unveil fresh measures to help banks hurt by the bloc's debt crisis.

The widely expected rate cut, back to a record low of 1 percent, came hours before a high-stakes EU summit which will aim to agree on a plan to defuse the crisis, with France and Germany pushing for rule changes to stricter budget discipline in the bloc.

http://www.newsmeat.com/news/meat.php?a ... &buid=3281
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby kennynah » Thu Dec 08, 2011 11:35 pm

this has been the expected unexpected move... word was already spreading since the beginning of this week...
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby Chinaman » Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:01 am

tomolo 9 Dec'11 .....impt decision for EU......
Indentally EU is NATO means "no action talk only"

this time round, they need a stronger fire power.
50/50 this is wat market antipation - no confident of curing the EU's cancer...then spread to china and thereafter the entire world market...sound frightening leh......steady, i only look at dark side...dun think this will happen, most likely they will create money out of thin air...easy way out.

hmmss, if they go for printing...another round of asset inflation.
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby kennynah » Fri Dec 09, 2011 2:59 am

bro C .. i hope you are right...

spx should find support at 1220...which is about 20 points away....

BUT, this is a very crucial support..becos if this breaks...and imo, a pretty good chance it might... the next level is 40points down at 1180... in total... including today, we might experience a 800 points DOW drop starting wednesday...

this means STI back to 2550-2600 level by the end of this month...

is santa on MC this year?
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Re: Europe - ECB & BOE 02 (Dec 11 - Dec 12)

Postby winston » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:24 pm

The ECB will offer banks unlimited amounts of low-cost, three-year funds against collateral now more broadly defined, which many analysts hope will encourage buying of high-yielding Spanish and Italian bonds, helping ease the crisis in the euro bloc.

Source: Reuters
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