CDS: Bernanke pessimism leads to a weaker tone on the open
LONDON, June 8 (IFR) - Synthetic European credit markets are opening on the back foot once again this morning, reversing the tentative corrective gains seen yesterday. As of 06.30GMT, the iTraxx Main was a basis point wider at 104.5bp, the HiVol was 1.5bp wider at 145.5bp (a S15 record wide) and the Crossover was 3.5bp wider at 388bp, according to Tradeweb.
The worsening condition of the US economy continues to be the dominant theme in global capital markets, following the weak data from last week. Last night in a speech at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta, Bernanke said that the economy was running "well below" potential and job creation is lagging, therefore monetary policy accommodation remains necessary, especially with medium term inflation subdued. This led to a drop in US stocks that permeated into Asian bourses and hence Europe, leading to the weaker sentiment at the open.
Thus it looks as if forthcoming data releases will become far more meaningful over the course of the summer months, starting with the Beige Book tonight, which is expected to be the weakest report so far this year.
It almost goes without saying that if we continue to see a deterioration of growth over the summer, QE3 rhetoric will begin to shift through the gears.
In all honesty yesterday was a bit of a non event in terms of price action in the secondary markets, with the exception of Moody's downgrade of EDP and Fitch's downgrade of Nokia, which caused both names to widen sharply, especially in the cash market. Today, in the absence of meaningful data (we have already seen German April exports fall the most since January 2009) it is likely to be more of the same.
Meanwhile, the Greek situation continues to be the main European focus. The new bailout, restructuring/reprofiling/rollover/default rhetoric will continue unabated no doubt without any real clarity being agreed upon.
Overnight we have seen reports that the German Finance Minister Schaeuble has written to his European counterparts and Trichet is seeking a debt maturity extension of up to 7 years, believing that bondholders should have to accept those terms, rather than it being of a more voluntary basis. That would, of course, trigger the credit event that everybody is currently at pains to avoid.
Looking ahead to today, and as mentioned above it's a blank day in the States until the Beige Book after London has headed into the sunset. In Europe the main focus will be the latest estimate of Q1 GDP, which is expected to be unchanged from the previous estimate.