InvestIdeas

We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025 and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels.

"We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions".

Among other risks, it's likely still "too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts" on corporate earnings.

Overall, eight strategists among the 14 tracked by Yahoo Finance currently project the S&P 500 to close either nearly flat from current levels or lower.

Even those who predict an increase aren't pounding the table for the rally to continue in the short term.

Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote that the recent V-shaped recovery for stocks could soon look more like a "square root shaped pattern," where the path higher stalls.

"It's hard to identify a positive catalyst for the S&P 500 to continue its meteoric run into Q3," Subramanian wrote.

"Among our five target models, our earnings per share surprise framework represents our near-term read and is mixed, at best.

Negative guidance and revisions in April/May have improved to average levels but economic surprises have broken down. And the meat of corporate profits, tech company earnings, are slated to decelerate."

The recent roller-coaster ride ended with a positive return for the first half of the year. And according to history, that means we could see another 7% upside by year-end.

Stocks tend to keep rising after a good first half of the year. The typical return for the second half of the year is 7.1%. And those gains tend to continue… with a 12-month return of 11.2%.