Alan Greenspan

Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:18 am

Greenspan: Recession Over, Growth Ahead By: Greg Brown

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan thinks the economy has already turned around.

Greenspan told ABC News on Sunday he's "pretty sure we've already seen the bottom."

Now, companies must restock quickly to get ahead of demand, which he sees spiking higher in the third quarter.
( Would you restock quickly or slowly ? You dont have the government to bail you out if you go under unlike in some other countries )

It strikes me that we may very well have 2.5 percent in the current quarter," he said.

The economic contraction slowed in the second quarter, to 1 percent annualized, down sharply from a 6.4 percent drop in the first three months of the year.

Forecasters had expected negative 1.5 percent growth in the second quarter.

In addition, early GDP numbers are often revised later when more complete data is released. It may well turn out that the recession is over right now, at least in technical terms.

Jennifer Lee at BMO Capital Markets told AFP that the figures suggest that the end of the downturn is in fact here now.

"The results set the stage for a positive read on the GDP in the third quarter, which means that the recession will likely be wrapped up in the July-to-September period," Lee said.

( End of Recession means robust growth or less bad ? )

© 2009 Newsmax.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk ... 43326.html
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby millionairemind » Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:34 pm

Aug 18, 2009
US to finish strong in '09

Mr Greenspan said the US economy is OK for the next six months, but the recovery may falter next year. -- PHOTO: AFP

WASHINGTON - THE US economy is probably due for two strong quarters of economic growth to close out 2009, but the recovery may falter next year, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.

'I think we're OK for the next six months,' Mr Greenspan told Reuters in an interview. 'We are getting a recovery in (housing) starts and motor vehicles, but the process doesn't have legs to it.'

Auto sales and housing, normally the driving forces behind economic recovery, got a boost from government efforts such as the US$3 billion (S$4.35 billion) 'cash-for-clunkers' trade-in program, which encouraged consumers to buy new cars, but it may not be sustainable.

Mr Greenspan, who stepped down as Fed chairman in 2006 after 18 years at the helm, said the US market for autos was 'saturated,' with 20 per cent more cars and light trucks on the road than there are licensed drivers.

With US consumers' finances still shaky after three years of housing market declines, new vehicle sales may fade once the clunker program's cash is exhausted. As for new home sales, a sharp drop in construction is helping homebuilders clear inventory, but Mr Greenspan said it was unlikely that the rate of US homeownership would return to the boomtime peak, which will keep home sales subdued.

While he has been lauded for presiding over the longest uninterrupted period of economic growth in modern US history from 1991 to 2001, his record has recently come under harsher scrutiny.

Some economy watchers note that it was during Mr Greenspan's tenure at the Fed that the housing bubble inflated.
Critics argue that under his leadership, the Fed kept short-term borrowing costs too low for too long after the 2001 recession, sowing the seeds of the housing and easy credit bubble that contributed to the financial crisis.

Mr Greenspan has defended his record repeatedly, saying global forces overwhelmed the US central bank's efforts to raise borrowing costs. He has also maintained that bubbles cannot be detected until they burst.

What gives him confidence that the last half of 2009 will generate strong growth is primarily a sharp drop in inventories of goods. Consumption has been running about 1-1/4 percentage points above the level of economic output. In order to close that gap, companies need to make more goods, which would generate gross domestic product growth on the order of 4 per cent to 5 per cent if it happened all in one quarter and 2.5 per cent per quarter if spread out over six months.

A rebound in stock markets since March 2009 lows may also add some fuel to the recovery by helping companies obtain cheaper sources of funding and rebuilding household wealth.

'The 50 per cent rise in corporate equities in the United States, and more than that in the rest of the world, has created an important buffer for debt,' he said. 'The consequent major contraction of yield spreads across the globe has added more fiscal stimulus than anybody realises.' -- THOMSON REUTERs
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby AirFlownAussiePork » Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:26 pm

Alan Greenspan isn't a fool. The main thing he missed out during his tenure as Fed Chief was Risk. Risk is basically the standard deviation from the expected mean.

Greenspan concentrated on the application of monetary policies to control the economy as and when a threat - either a recession or a bubble was perceived. Such applications were pitting the knowledge of a group of esteemed and knowledgeable men in Economics against the Invisible Hand. As quoted "The essential problem is that our models – both risk models and econometric models – as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality. ..." The Fed knew their limitations but it seemed political pressures or maybe prior successes encouraged them to dribble in the usage of monetary policies till the sub prime crisis unfolded.

But was Greenspan accountable for all these? Part of the answer was "Yes", his growing intervention accelerated market imperfections and was too rapid for any equilibrium to be achieved and for market imperfections to be resolved. Monetary policies should be used only to deal with market imperfections and not in accordance to the agenda of a particular administration. Collective intelligence as in the Invisible Hand is capable of dealing with most of the market intricacies. But then, the housing bubble leading to the sub prime crisis was too great to be permeated by one man alone. It is institutional failure on a grand scale together with the inappropriate intervention by the Fed throughout the years that caused the sub prime crisis that we know today.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Tue Jan 12, 2010 7:50 pm

"I have found no greater satisfaction than achieving success through honest dealing and strict adherence to the view that, for you to gain, those you deal with should gain as well."

Alan Greenspan
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Sat Feb 27, 2010 7:43 am

Hillary Clinton: Greenspan's Outrageous Advice Caused Deficit

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday said "outrageous" advice from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan helped create record U.S. budget deficits and put national security at risk.

Appearing before congressional panels to defend the State Department's $52.8 billion budget request for 2011, Clinton said the massive U.S. foreign debt had sapped U.S. strength around the world.

"It breaks my heart that 10 years ago we had a balanced budget, that we were on the way to paying down the debt of the United States of America," Clinton said.

"I served on the budget committee in the Senate, and I remember as vividly as if it were yesterday when we had a hearing in which Alan Greenspan came and justified increasing spending and cutting taxes, saying that we didn't really need to pay down the debt — outrageous in my view," she said.

Though she did not give a date, that hearing must have taken place during the presidency of George W. Bush, who authored a massive tax cut while spending billions on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and sponsoring a major expansion of the Medicare health program for seniors.

Clinton urged lawmakers to tackle the federal budget deficit, which reached a record $1.4 trillion for the fiscal year that ended last September.

"We have to address this deficit and the debt of the United States as a matter of national security not only as a matter of economics," Clinton said. "I do not like to be in a position where the United States is a debtor nation to the extent that we are."

Having to rely on foreign creditors hit "our ability to protect our security, to manage difficult problems and to show the leadership that we deserve."

"The moment of reckoning cannot be put off forever," she said. "I really honestly wish I could turn the clock back."

Clinton's swipe at Greenspan symbolized the way the former central bank chief's reputation has fallen since he left the job in 2006.

First named to the office by President Ronald Reagan in 1987, Greenspan served throughout the presidency of Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton.

He was regarded as economic oracle. His cryptic pronouncements were searched for inner meaning and regularly moved financial markets.

Now, he has become a handy whipping boy blamed for helping inflate a housing bubble that eventually burst, setting off a grave financial crisis and plunging the economy into the worst recession in decades.

Greenspan, known as a deficit hawk, late last year endorsed a proposed bipartisan commission to help make tough calls needed to bring U.S. debt under control.

Clinton noted that the 2011 budget request for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development represented a $4.9 billion increase over 2010, most of which would fund work in the "frontline states" of Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

"We are now assuming so many of the post-conflict responsibilities, and that is the bulk of our increase," Clinton said.

Republican Representative Ron Paul, who has helped lead congressional efforts to rein in the deficit, pressed Clinton on U.S. diplomatic spending including a plan for an expensive new U.S. embassy building in London

Clinton said the costs of the proposed modernist glass cube would be offset by savings on rent for satellite offices that embassy personnel must now use. "I believe I can make the case that we're not asking for new money," she said.

http://moneynews.com/Headline/Hillary-C ... /id/350960
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby millionairemind » Thu Apr 08, 2010 9:05 am

Alan : It wasn't me.. :mrgreen:

Apr 8, 2010
Greenspan blamed for mess
WARNING ON DANGERS


WASHINGTON - THE wreckage of Wall Street's subprime mortgage machine was laid bare on Wednesday by a US congressional panel that pointed the finger at Alan Greenspan for not stopping it from running out of control.

The former Federal Reserve chairman - once revered as the oracle of economic wisdom - defended his legacy before the panel, which also heard a former Citigroup executive say he had warned of the subprime danger.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission kicked off three days of hearings with a look at securitisation of subprime mortgages, in which risky home loans were bundled and resold in the secondary debt market. At the peak of America's real estate bubble, Wall Street firms were securitising huge amounts of subprime loans, putting bad assets on financial institutions' books and unmanageable debts on the shoulders of many homeowners.

It all came crashing down two years ago, triggering a devastating wave of foreclosures, paralysis in capital markets, and the worst financial crisis in generations. Since then, the market for subprime mortgage debt has virtually vanished.

'The Fed utterly failed to prevent the financial crisis,' said commission member Brooksley Born at a hearing where Greenspan, other regulators and banking executives testified.

In reply to Mr Born and other commission members, Greenspan, who is 84 and retired as Fed chairman in 2006, said: 'Did we make mistakes? Of course, we made mistakes... 'Managers of financial institutions, along with regulators, including but not limited to the Federal Reserve, failed to comprehend the underlying size, length and potential impact' of market risks that contributed to the 2007-2009 crisis. -- THOMSON REUTERS
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby greenhoney » Thu Apr 08, 2010 11:39 am

the greenspan put. now dunt know put where.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Sat Oct 16, 2010 6:58 pm

"I have found no greater satisfaction than achieving success through honest dealing and strict adherence to the view that, for you to gain, those you deal with should gain as well."

Alan Greenspan
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:25 am

Stunner: Gold Standard Fully Supported By... Alan Greenspan!? by Tyler Durden

You read that right. After such establishment "luminaries" as World Bank president Robert Zoellick, Warren Buffett's father Howard, Jim Grant, and, most recently, Kansas Fed president Thomas Hoenig, all voiced their support for a return to a gold standard, the most recent addition to the motley group of contrite voodoo shamans is none othe than the man who is singlehandedly responsible for America's addiction to cheap toxic credit, who spawned such destroyers of the middle class as the current Chaircreature, and who currently is the chief advisor in John Paulson's crusade to gobble up every ounce of deliverable physical in the world: former Fed Chairman - Alan Greenspan!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stunne ... -greenspan
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby behappyalways » Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:37 am

血要热 头脑要冷 骨头要硬
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