Alan Greenspan

Alan Greenspan

Postby kennynah » Fri May 09, 2008 3:11 am

Greenspan, the ex Fed chief..said tonight...

subprime problem is over...finish...means...dont lor soh and keep at it...finito..

but housing problem still hanging around and will likely stabilize by end 2008


by the way, this is the 3rd time i have heard about this in 2 days...

1st was a WSJ report last night
2nd time was Treasury Secretary Paulson said this several hours ago on thurs...

when enough people sing this song, it will self-fulfill....

>>>>> think Banks counters.....
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Re: Alan Greesnpan

Postby winston » Wed May 14, 2008 2:52 pm

U.S. could face mild recession, Greenspan quoted

SINGAPORE, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. economic data suggests the world's biggest economy could face a mild recession, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as telling Asian investors on Wednesday.

"He said that the data coming out of the U.S. so far suggests a mild recession. The risk is really on the housing side," a participant quoted Greenspan as telling a private Deutsche Bank event.

The former Fed chairman spoke to the meeting in Singapore via videolink from Washington.

Greenspan, who was quoted as saying earlier this month that the U.S. had fallen into an "awfully pale recession", also told the investor meeting that the credit crisis would end when home prices in the United States begin to stabilise, members of the audience said.

"When home prices stabilise that would mark the end of the credit crisis," the participant quoted Greenspan as saying.

"The last part of liquidation will only occur in early 2009, but he argued that it is likely home prices could well stabilise before that," the participant, who declined to be identified, added.

The U.S economy is reeling from a housing-led slowdown. Some analysts are convinced the economy is already in a recession despite a 0.6 percent annualised growth rate in the first quarter of 2008.

The Fed has cut it's key overnight lending rate by 3.25 percentage points to 2.0 percent since mid-September in a bid to cushion the broader economy from the housing downturn and credit crisis.

Greenspan also said that global price pressures could remain firm because the effect of China's cheap exports is waning.

"We are entering a period where the disinflationary pressure from the exports of China have bottomed out," the participant quoted Greenspan as saying.

"Low cost labour in China probably reached its peak in late 2006 and early 2006. We are beginning to see gradually rising inflationary pressures, which would be probably subdued during the current period of slowdown, but will surely re-emerge when the economy begins to pickup," he quoted Greenspan as saying.
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Re: Alan Greesnpan

Postby blid2def » Wed May 14, 2008 2:54 pm

winston - give u the chance to test your moderation rights. Edit the title of this thread (and that of your reply) to fix kennynah's dyslexia. :D
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Tue May 27, 2008 9:44 pm

I thought we are half-way thru it already :(

===============================

Greenspan says US recession still probable
Posted: 27 May 2008 1054 hrs

LONDON: A recession in the United States remains a probability, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said in an interview published Tuesday.

Speaking to the Financial Times from Washington, Greenspan said he believed "there is a greater than 50 percent probability of recession."
He noted, however, that "that probability has receded a little".

The likelihood of a severe recession had "come down markedly", he added: but it was too soon to tell whether the worst was already over.

According to the Financial Times, Greenspan estimated that house prices in the United States would drop by a further 10 percent from their levels in February, which comes to a 25 percent drop from their peak.

"Such house price declines imply a major contraction in the level of equity in owner-occupied homes, the ultimate collateral for mortgage-backed securities," he said.

US economic growth has slowed dramatically in recent months and a growing number of economists believe the world's largest economy will experience a recession during 2008 amid a housing slump and related credit crunch. - AFP/ac
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Sat May 31, 2008 10:18 am

Greenspan doesn't expect more market "bubbles"
Fri May 30, 2008 2:46pm EDT

MONTREAL (Reuters) - Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday that he does not expect another "bubble" in world markets for a long time, and that central banks at any rate do not control the long-term interest rates that can be related to bubbles.

He conceded that stagflation -- a combination of weak growth and high inflation -- was a real concern.

"Oh certainly," he said when asked if stagflation was a possible.

Speaking to an audience of 2,000 in Montreal, Greenspan said asset bubbles do not form when inflation pressures begin to emerge.

As inflation pressures emerge around the world, he said the critical issue was a political one. Central bankers will no doubt act to keep inflation under control, but Greenspan mused about whether politicians were "wise enough" to realize that low inflation is a major factor in economic growth, citing political pressures on the Fed back in the 1990s when central bankers were perceived to be more hawkish than the government.

He also said past experience at the Fed has showed that central banks can do little to pre-emptively act to prevent bubbles in financial markets, referring to interest rate hikes in the early 1990s failing to prevent excessive confidence in stock markets.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:06 am

Don't know what to think of his words anymore. He is out, so his info maybe second hand now. Anyway, when he speaks, I'll listen with one ear ( as if I can do it :P )

------------------------------------------------

Greenspan sees US recession risk lessening

MEXICO CITY - Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told the Latin American Economic Forum here Friday that he sees a reduced possibility of a deep recession in the United States.

"I think the worst is over,"
Greenspan said of US economic woes, speaking via video-conference from Washington.

There is now a "reduced possibility" of a deep recession, the former Fed oracle said, after telling the Financial Times late last month that a US recession remained a probability.

Greenspan told the paper he believed "there is a greater than 50 percent probability of recession," noting, however, that "that probability has receded a little."

He also told the paper that the likelihood of a severe recession had "come down markedly" but added it was too soon to tell whether the worst was already over.

The US economy grew at an annual 0.9 percent pace in the first quarter of the year, the government said in late May, in an upward revision that calmed the nerves of some economists.

The Commerce Department initially pegged first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 0.6 percent, the same lackluster pace as the 2007 fourth quarter.

The revision, in line with expectations, bolsters the stance of some economists who believe the world's largest economy will avoid a recession despite a deep housing slump, a related credit crunch and soaring oil prices.

A recession, which last hit the US in 2001, is typically defined as two straight periods of negative economic activity. The Federal Reserve has been trying to avert an economic slump by aggressively slashing interest rates.

- AFP /ls
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Sat Jun 14, 2008 9:33 am

Greenspan Says Markets Show `Pronounced Turnaround' (Update3)
By Andres R. Martinez and Steve Matthews

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that financial markets, roiled by the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market, have shown a ``pronounced turnaround'' since March.

``The worst is over in the financial crisis or will be very soon,
'' the former Fed chairman said in remarks via satellite today to a conference in Mexico City. ``There is a reduced possibility of a large, intense recession.'' He added that he has a ``sense'' that tax rebates have helped retailers.

Greenspan's remarks echo the assessment of Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week, who said that the danger of a ``substantial downturn'' in the economy had receded. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month indicated a smaller likelihood of a recession compared with May.

Greenspan also offered a measure for telling when the markets have returned to normal.

``We will learn that this crisis has come to an end'' once the gap between the London Interbank Offered Rate and the overnight index swap rate narrows past 25 basis points, near where it was on Aug. 8, he said. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Crisis Measure

Libor is a benchmark rate for loans between banks, while the so-called OIS rate is a measure of what traders expect for the Fed's benchmark rate. The spread between three-month Libor and the equivalent maturity OIS rate was about 69 basis points today, down from a high for the year of 90 basis points in April. It averaged about 19 basis points over the past five years.

The spread is ``unlikely'' to reach the lows of Aug. 8 and earlier because ``risk was very heavily underpriced'' at the time, Greenspan said in a subsequent telephone interview.

The financial crisis deepened in August when European banks acknowledged their vulnerability to rising delinquencies on American subprime mortgages and some funding markets seized up, forcing Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, to tap credit lines with banks.

Greenspan added that rebate checks that are intended to stimulate consumption are bringing about increased sales. ``There is a sense it is buoying the retail market,'' adding the U.S. economy has shown a ``remarkable resilience.''

A government report yesterday showed that retail sales in May rose 1 percent, twice as much as economists had forecast, as consumers spent the federal tax rebates from a fiscal stimulus plan. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 0.9 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, capping off the weakest six months in five years.

Food Prices

At the same time, Greenspan said rising food prices have had a ``devastating'' effect on Mexico and globally. He said he believes speculation has contributed to the rise in oil and food prices, while declining to forecast oil prices.

Greenspan's comments compare to his view in February that the odds of a recession were ``50 percent or better'' and that the slump could be deeper than the previous two contractions.

Defaults on subprime mortgages in the U.S. have triggered a worldwide credit crunch, with banks and financial institutions reporting $391 billion in writedowns and losses stemming from bad debt.

The persistent slump in the housing market is putting ``major downward pressure'' on the economy, said Greenspan, who served as Fed chairman from August 1987 to January 2006.

He said housing remains a ``critical problem'' and financial markets may not recover fully until home prices stabilize, ``perhaps by the end of the year.''

The former chairman reiterated his view that there will be a test of the Fed's independence in the next few years as inflation accelerates.

Fed policy makers will have to put ``increasing pressure'' on money supply to combat inflation, and ``as a result you will see interest rates rising,'' he said.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:18 am

Former FED Chairman Alan Greenspan says the current credit crisis may persist into next year.

The US is on the brink of a recession. Growth will be very sluggish next year amid a highly volatile oil market. While the threat of a severe recession has been reduced, an immediate rebound in the US economy is not likely, this according to Greenspan.
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby winston » Fri Aug 01, 2008 10:14 am

Global slowdown may put U.S. in recession: Greenspan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that a slowing global economy may push the United States into recession, though it is not yet in one.

"I think the data at this stage in the United States are not ... suggesting recession
," Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC television. But he added: "We're right on the brink and I would be more surprised if we didn't (have a recession) than if we did, given the financial state."

Greenspan said companies were controlling inventories effectively and that "at this stage, I think they are the major reason why in the very short term we're fending off inflationary pressures."

However, he noted that with jobless claims rising and growth overseas slowing, it would be hard for the United States to avoid slipping into recession.

Greenspan also said the government had no choice other than to broker the emergency sale of failing investment bank Bear Stearns, but the Treasury Department, not the Fed, should have backed the transaction.

"That is a fiscal policy operation -- essentially something that should have been set up in the Treasury Department," Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC television.

"What we should not do is have the central bank involved in its balance sheet," he said, adding:

"That balance sheet is the creator of the monetary base and if you allow major fluctuations in that base as a result of other-than-monetary-policy reasons, I think you're taking undue risks with the notion of the stability of the financial system and very specifically the Fed's control of inflation."
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Re: Alan Greenspan

Postby kennynah » Fri Aug 01, 2008 10:17 am

why are people still listening to this "has been" ?
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