US - Market Strategy 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

December has been outright bloody for stocks
https://x.com/SittingBear0921/status/18 ... 9241372011


The S&P 500 is currently off -1.6% in December, but under the hood it's a bloodbath.
https://x.com/SJD10304/status/1872694792213447056

[behappyalways]

Just 10 stocks account for 59% of the S&P 500's gains since the October 2022 bottom
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1873718007731749063


Companies that receive the most US government subsidies: $BA, $INTC, $F, $GM, $MU, $AMZN, $AA
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1873720080279937064

[behappyalways]

Over the last three years the Russell 2000 is ... down 1%
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1874523464822050928

[winston]

US's S&P 500 might correct as much as 15 percent this year

by Cici Cao

The S&P 500 could see a 10-15 percent correction sometime this year if the Donald Trump administration adopts policies including tax cuts, deportation of illegal immigrants, tariff hikes and regulation relaxation, said JPMorgan strategist Michael Cembalest.

The S&P 500 has risen over 20 percent for two consecutive years, which has only happened 10 times since 1871, said Cembalest.

He called on investors to plan accordingly, noting that US stocks should end the year at a higher level than at the beginning of the year, but investors should hold enough liquidity to cope with potential volatility.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... -this-year

[winston]

<Research>G Sachs Lists Latest Top Picks for US Stocks (Table)

2025/01/03

Goldman Sachs released a research report expecting US stocks to have 5 major investment themes this year, including AI, deregulation of capital markets and MA, re-powering, de-globalization and consumer recovery in the US.

The broker also released a list of “Conviction List Buy” of the broker's latest “Directors' Cut”:

Related News - JPM: S&P 500 May Correct 10-15% This Yr on Trump Policies

Consumer sector
Burlington Stores, Inc.(BURL.US) +3.360 (+1.176%) After +0.290%
ConAgra Brands, Inc. (CAG.US) -0.020 (-0.072%) After 0.000%
Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH.US) -0.500 (-1.929%) After +0.039%※
Philip Morris International Inc (PM.US) +0.920 (+0.760%) After -0.008%

Financial sector
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (BRX.US) +0.348 (+1.276%) After +0.761%
Citigroup(C.US) +1.060 (+1.516%) After -0.155%
Evercore Inc. (EVR.US) +1.540 (+0.558%) After -1.329%

Healthcare sector
Insmed Incorporated (INSM.US) -0.090 (-0.129%) After -0.845%

Related News - Fed Data: US Bank Reserves Drop Below US$3T, Lowest Since Oct 2020

Industrial sector
Air Lease Corporation (AL.US) -0.180 (-0.375%) After -0.440%
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH.US) -0.285 (-0.375%) After -0.938%
Vulcan Materials Company(VMC.US) +1.560 (+0.610%) After 0.000%
Woodward, Inc. (WWD.US) +3.280 (+1.914%) After +1.958%

Natural resources
Sempra (SRE.US) +0.540 (+0.620%) After +0.376%
Suncor Energy Inc. (SU.US) +0.390 (+1.082%) After -0.110%

TMT sector
Belden Inc (BDC.US) +2.430 (+2.147%) After +4.999%※
IBM(IBM.US) +2.710 (+1.232%) After +0.112%
Nvidia(NVDA.US) +6.160 (+4.454%) After +0.360%
Pinterest, Inc. (PINS.US) +0.360 (+1.177%) After +0.646%
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW.US) +4.710 (+2.990%) After +0.296%
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI.US) +4.070 (+0.821%) After -1.225%
Teradyne, Inc. (TER.US) +4.040 (+3.192%) After +0.613%
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER.US) +1.420 (+2.248%) After +0.372% ※

※：Newly added stock

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

3 Market Highs and Lows of 2024

by Eric Fry

High #1: The Fed Cuts Rates Three Times
High #2: Market Reaches Record Highs After Trump’s Re-Election
High #3: The AI Boom Continues

Low #1: AI Clashes with Labor
Low #2: Super Micro Gets Pressured After Short Seller Report
Low #3: Escalating Global Tensions

Source: Market 360

[behappyalways]

2024: a not-so-spectacular year for US equites.
https://x.com/CarterBWorth/status/1874872014223335689

[behappyalways]

Quantum Computing Stocks Plunge After Nvidia CEO Comments
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quant ... o-comments

[behappyalways]

From Bloomberg's
@johnauthers
this table showing how uniformly bullish Wall St is this year with an average 2025 target of 6614 +12.3% w/ an expected P/E of 24.59. The highest tgt is Oppenheimer's 7,100 w/ an implied P/E of 25.82. DIckensian: Great expectations.
https://x.com/KASDad/status/1876245901284716596


The valuation of the $SPX continues to remain above its 30-year average, by various measures
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1876354525495484701

[winston]

Three faces of Trump and their implications for markets

Textbook and erratic Trump have been priced into markets to different degrees but curveball Trump has not – and it represents potential value for investors

by Mary-Therese Barton & Mickael Benhaim

1. Textbook Trump: the Trump that the markets were anticipating. This version, which includes aggressive tariffs, corporate tax cuts and deregulation, has largely been priced into the market.

2. Volatile Erratic Trump: who might stick to his promises but might equally likely veer off in an entirely different direction. This unpredictability should translate into higher implied volatility – which is being priced into some assets but not all.

3. Curveball Trump. This is the Trump who is looking to cut deals, using his initial, extreme stances merely as starting points for negotiating settlements that are favourable to the US but far short of the headlines.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... ns-markets