US - Market Strategy 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Three penny stocks accounted for 3.5 billion of the 11 billion shares that traded on Naz today
https://x.com/Chartfest1/status/1928193952554852383

[behappyalways]

Wow. Defensives are at the lowest % of the S&P 500 since 2000. Smells like a contrarian opportunity to get long
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1929173091231392222


Big tech has helped to lead the S&P 500 higher from the April lows
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1929269077639401691

[winston]

Trump turmoil roils Wall Street macro trading

“You can still position for a macro trend but you have to absolutely prevent getting whipsawed.”

Traders still see the economy sputtering enough to warrant two US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while the inflation risk from tariffs remains as uncertain as ever.

At the same time, policy flip-flops, data head-fakes, and the White House’s reactive posture have made macro forecasting a bitter exercise.

May will go down as a stretch when defensive strategies adopted in the April chaos backfired with rare force.

Pain hit value stocks, bearish options, fixed-income havens, trades tied to stagflation – in short, anything premised on the idea that April’s volatility would linger or worsen.

US Treasuries fell as traders questioned the sustainability of US debt.

The mistake traders keep making is underestimating the economy’s natural resilience. Amid the turbulence, his team is pulling back from aggressive positions.

“There’s a great quote that I think comes from the army: ‘slow is smooth, and smooth is fast’”.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ro-trading

[behappyalways]

The Mag 7 earnings premium has shrunk vs the Inglorious 493 to 43%, still elevated, but far from the peak, according to Goldman
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1929530474981966220

[winston]

S&P 500: Resistance & Support

A breakout above 6,000 confirms continued bullish pressure.

A trade-band projection gives a target near 6,200.

A move below 5,700 signals continuation of bearish pressure with support near 5,200.

Source: Daryl Guppy

[winston]

Traders scour for ‘elusive’ catalyst to push S&P 500 to record

Investors are becoming too numb to the trade war and economic risks, so when red flags appear, they start dismissing them.

We’ve become desensitised with inflation because everyone is betting that it will take months before tariffs will flow through into the economic data.

“But if there’s a hot CPI print, it could lead to another sell-off in stocks, though will investors use any drawdown to keep buying the dip, or sell?”

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... 500-record

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Nasdaq (NDAQ)... stock exchanges
Barclays (BCS)... financial services
Visa (V)... credit cards
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)... payroll giant
Microsoft (MSFT)... tech giant
IBM (IBM)... computers
eBay (EBAY)... online marketplace
Carvana (CVNA)... online used cars
DoorDash (DASH)... food-delivery app
Chewy (CHWY)... pet products
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)... restaurants
Cintas (CTAS)... uniforms
Johnson Controls (JCI)... industrial equipment
Heico (HEI)... aerospace and defense
New Gold (NGD)... gold

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

S&P 500 dividend yield 1.26%

Near all-time record lows!
https://x.com/joosteninvestor/status/19 ... 0714539327

[winston]

Nasdaq 100 facing technical and geopolitical crosscurrents

by Teo Huan Zi

Formidable resistance near the 22,000 to 22,222 zone, a level which has withstood four breakout attempts since December 2024.

Investors are bracing for heightened volatility amid Middle-East tensions and as the Jul 9 end of US tariff deadline extension looms.

The 22,000-22,222 barrier represents a triple technical threat:
1. February 2025’s all-time high
2. 100 per cent Fibonacci retracement level and
3. Psychological milestone

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... sscurrents