技術性反彈...道瓊站上2萬點! 台幣7天跌4.7角收30.5元"三個月新低"|主播詹璇依|【iStock盤前解析】20200320|三立iNEWS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yWYX3VNJuo
Perhaps the most important market parameter that failed to rally is the US dollar-Japanese yen cross-currency basis swap, the amount of yield that Japanese investors sacrifice to hedge US dollar coupon payments into Japanese yen.
European and Japanese banks have borrowed about $12 trillion from US banks to fund hedges, and the rush for cash shut this market down.
The Federal Reserve has pumped perhaps $100 billion in dollar liquidity into the market in the form of swap lines to foreign central banks, who in turn provide dollars for commercial banks.
Compared to a $12 trillion volume of net dollar borrowing by foreign banks, the Fed’s swap lines probably are too small to make a lasting difference.
Trillions of dollars of US securities held by foreigners are waiting to be sold, and it remains to be seen whether the Fed has the resources to engineer a soft landing.
“Right now, fundamentals don’t matter because there is very little clarity as to when the economy can restart — and depending on how long this goes — what the economy will look like when it does restart.”
“The severe indiscriminate selling we saw prior to last week has abated,” he said, noting that through last Monday, nearly every asset class, including gold, U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks were being sold off. “It was that classic capitulation move to cash”.
Another potential sign of a market bottom is action in currency markets, where the U.S. dollar has lost value in recent sessions after the Federal Reserve made aggressive moves to lower the cost of borrowing dollars and increase liquidity.
Other internal-market factors, including a contraction in the number of stocks trading at their 52 week lows, a weekly decline in the CBOE volatility index VIX, the firming up of global stock markets — including the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXPand the Nikkei NIK and commodity prices as signals the worst may be over.
“Another 10% to 20% decline is not out of the question, especially considering the growing number of disparaging forecasts and the crisis in confidence of governments’.
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