The Three Charts Every Investor Needs to See This Morning
Source: IWB
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the ... s-morning/
winston wrote:The Three Charts Every Investor Needs to See This Morning
Source: IWB
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the ... s-morning/
Something along the lines of the Federal Reserve signaling at one of its two remaining meetings this year it’s done cutting interest rates would have to occur to truly spook the bulls.
Or, the market grows completely impatient with the Trump administration’s timeline on delivering phase two of its trade deal with China.
Or hey, the president gets impeached — that’s a factor not priced into the markets at all and largely ignored as a risk by many Wall Street pros Yahoo Finance has chatted up.
Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald expects the S&P 500 Index to be at 2,500 by early 2020, a plunge of about 18% by early next year, Business Insider reports. He sees bearish manufacturing and consumer data, making a recession likely by the second half of 2020.
Albert Edwards of Societe Generale notes that stock prices have been advancing faster than earnings, and he finds this to be reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.
Meanwhile, interest rate cuts by the Fed appear to be losing their potency, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Big Money Poll conducted by Barron's: Among respondents, 31% are bearish on stocks, the highest level since the mid-1990s, while only 27% are bullish, less than half the proportion one year ago.
Individual investors also polled by Barron's are similarly gloomy, with only 29% calling themselves bullish, and 42% believing that U.S. stocks are overvalued.
Meanwhile, corporate CEOs are registering their lowest levels of confidence since the 2008 financial crisis, and a majority of corporate CFOs expect the U.S. economy to be in recession by the second half of 2020, per two other recent surveys.
Peter Cecchini of Cantor Fitzgerald expects the S&P 500 Index to be at 2,500 by early 2020, a plunge of about 18% by early next year, Business Insider reports. He sees bearish manufacturing and consumer data, making a recession likely by the second half of 2020.
Albert Edwards of Societe Generale notes that stock prices have been advancing faster than earnings, and he finds this to be reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.
Meanwhile, interest rate cuts by the Fed appear to be losing their potency, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Big Money Poll conducted by Barron's: Among respondents, 31% are bearish on stocks, the highest level since the mid-1990s, while only 27% are bullish, less than half the proportion one year ago.
Individual investors also polled by Barron's are similarly gloomy, with only 29% calling themselves bullish, and 42% believing that U.S. stocks are overvalued.
Meanwhile, corporate CEOs are registering their lowest levels of confidence since the 2008 financial crisis, and a majority of corporate CFOs expect the U.S. economy to be in recession by the second half of 2020, per two other recent surveys.
1. Follow The Leaders (Not Just The Leading Sector)
2. Watch The Up-And-Comers
3. Look For Weakness Even From S&P 500 Winners
As this chart of the CBOE’s volatility index VIX, -0.08% shows, investors, thanks to Federal Reserve rate cuts and a fiscal-stimulus-driven rally in the stock market, are back to levels of extreme complacency.
The deviation between corporate GAAP earnings, or those that adhere to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, and corporate profits has reached “unsustainable” levels.
As the global economy slows, those banks are hedging their risk by loading up on those deposits. “Historically,” he explained, “when you have an extremely sharp reversal in Eurodollars, it has preceded more troubling market events.”
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