United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:32 am

2019.07.06【文茜世界周報】英首相換人倒數 前倫敦市長強森呼聲高
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rJrdQs ... AU&index=1
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:06 am

Think tank says UK faces highest risk of recession since financial crisis

The UK is facing the highest risk of recession since the financial crisis due to Brexit uncertainty and a global economic slowdown, a new study has warned, CNBC reports.

The ominous assessment of the economic health, published by think tank the Resolution Foundation, suggested urgent plans are needed to mitigate the impact of the next downturn, with many of the Bank of England’s monetary policy cards already played.

The Resolution Foundation’s “recession risk” indicator, which uses government bond yields to assess the threat from a recession, projects that Britain’s recession risk has now reached its highest level since 2007.

Britain experiences technical recessions, in which output contracts for two consecutive quarters, roughly once a decade. However, the combination of global trade and domestic political pressures mean that the avoidance of mass job losses and socio-economic detriment which accompanied the last downturn may not be as attainable.

The last five recessions have produced an economic hit equating to around a £2,500 loss per household in the U.K., and increased unemployment by one million, the report said.

However, it expressed concerns that following the global financial crisis, the Bank of England has used many of the tools in its armoury aimed at curbing future recessions.

During the last recession of 2008, interest rates in the U.K. were gradually cut from 5.75 percent to 0.5 percent, quantitative easing amounted to £375 billion and VAT was cut to 15 percent.

The Resolution Foundation report drew on various economic studies on the economic impact of these measures to determine that without that policy stimulus, the downturn for GDP might have been 12 percent, equating to £8,000 for every U.K. household.

“Ahead of the next – potentially impending – recession, it is clear that U.K. policy makers do not have quite the same room for maneuver as they did ahead of the GFC (global financial crisis),” James Smith, research director at Resolution Foundation wrote in the report.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking- ... 0716&sid=2
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:08 am

2019.07.27【文茜世界周報】言行搞笑惹爭議 強森風格迥異傳統政要
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jh47vX2 ... dex=7&t=0s
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:46 pm

2019.08.04【文茜世界財經週報】硬脫歐派英相強森上台 蘇格蘭再次怒喊獨立
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3JOUE_ ... xu&index=1
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:50 pm

U.K. economy shrank for first time since 2012 in the second quarter
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk-ec ... ewer_click
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:43 pm

Deep freeze
The chilling economic effects of Brexit uncertainty are intensifying
Investment and productivity are being weighed down

SINCE BRITAIN voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016, Leavers have been gloating. Despite the Remain camp’s dire predictions, the economy seemed to trundle on well enough.

But the crowing is dying down. Figures released on August 9th showed that Britain’s GDP shrank in the second quarter. And a growing body of research suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty is doing subtle but serious economic damage.

A paper published early this year by Meredith Crowley, Oliver Exton and Lu Han of the University of Cambridge reckons that uncertainty over trade policy has dented export prospects. Had the vote not taken place, 5% more firms would have exported new products to the EU in 2016 alone.

After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University set up the “Decision-maker panel”, a survey that regularly polls executives across the country’s industries and regions. In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms, representing 14% of private-sector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.

The results are startling. The uncertainty that comes with a rise in oil prices or an unexpected bank failure can be costly, but typically abates as more information becomes available. Brexit uncertainty is unusually persistent—after all, three years after the vote, the terms of departure are still unclear.

The authors track the share of bosses reporting that Brexit is one of the top three sources of uncertainty, if not the biggest, facing their business (see chart). This remained elevated a full two years after the referendum, then rose further in 2018 as stalling talks with the EU raised the odds of a no-deal Brexit.

Bosses reporting greater uncertainty also appear to have scaled back investment more. But the depressing effect is not quite what forecasters had envisaged in 2016. They had pencilled in a steep drop in investment immediately after the vote that would ease as firms adjusted to the new world. But in fact the drag on investment has worsened over time. (The effect of uncertainty on hiring is more ambiguous.)

Importantly, the deceleration in investment has had significant knock-on effects on Britain’s productivity, which even before the referendum was dismal. That is partly because managers have been forced to spend valuable time planning. Between November 2018 and January 2019, nearly three-quarters of bosses put aside time each week to prepare for various outcomes.

But uncertainty has also been a bigger burden on exporters, which tend to be more productive than firms catering to the home market. All told, productivity is 2-5% lower than it would have been without the uncertainty. Brexit still carries plenty of unknowns. The effect on Britain’s economy, though, is becoming ever clearer.

Source: The Economist
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:56 pm

From The Economist

Who you gonna call?
How Parliament can stop Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit
The prime minister has sidelined Parliament and set a course for no-deal. MPs must act now to stop him


Print edition | Leaders
Aug 29th 2019


ONE BY ONE, the principles on which the Brexit campaign was fought have been exposed as hollow. Before the referendum, Leavers argued that victory would enable them to negotiate a brilliant deal with the European Union. Now they advocate leaving with no deal at all. Before the vote they said that Brexit would allow Britain to strike more free-trade agreements. Now they say that trading on the bare-bones terms of the World Trade Organisation would be fine. Loudest of all they talked of taking back control and restoring sovereignty to Parliament. Yet on August 28th Boris Johnson, a leading Leaver who is now prime minister, announced that in the run-up to Brexit Parliament would be suspended altogether.

His utterly cynical ploy is designed to stop MPs steering the country off the reckless course he has set to leave the EU with or without a deal on October 31st (see article). His actions are technically legal, but they stretch the conventions of the constitution to their limits. Because he is too weak to carry Parliament in a vote, he means to silence it. In Britain’s representative democracy, that sets a dangerous precedent (see article).

But it is still not too late for MPs to thwart his plans—if they get organised. The sense of inevitability about no-deal, cultivated by the hardliners advising Mr Johnson, is bogus. The EU is against such an outcome; most Britons oppose it; Parliament has already voted against the idea. Those MPs determined to stop no-deal have been divided and unfocused. When they return to work next week after their uneasy summer recess, they will have a fleeting chance to avert this unwanted national calamity. Mr Johnson’s actions this week have made clear why they must seize it.

Of all her mistakes as prime minister, perhaps Theresa May’s gravest was to plant the idea that Britain might do well to leave the EU without any exit agreement. Her slogan that “no deal is better than a bad deal” was supposed to persuade the Europeans to make concessions. It didn’t—but it did persuade many British voters and MPs that if the EU offered less than perfect terms, Britain should walk away.

In fact the government’s own analysis suggests that no-deal would make the economy 9% smaller after 15 years than if Britain had remained. Mr Johnson says preparations for the immediate disruption are “colossal and extensive and fantastic”. Yet civil servants expect shortages of food, medicine and petrol, and a “meltdown” at ports. A growing number of voters seem to think that a few bumpy months and a lasting hit to incomes might be worth it to get the whole tedious business out of the way. This is the greatest myth of all. If Britain leaves with no deal it will face an even more urgent need to reach terms with the EU, which will demand the same concessions as before—and perhaps greater ones, given that Britain’s hand will be weaker.

Mr Johnson insists that his intention is to get a new, better agreement before October 31st, and that to do so he needs to threaten the EU with the credible prospect of no-deal. Despite the fact that Mrs May got nowhere with this tactic, many Tory MPs still see it as a good one. The EU wants a deal, after all. And whereas it became clear that Mrs May was bluffing about walking out, Mr Johnson might just be serious (the fanatics who do his thinking certainly are). Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said recently that Britain should come up with a plan in the next 30 days if it wants to replace the Irish backstop, the most contentious part of the withdrawal agreement. Many moderate Tories, even those who oppose no-deal, would like to give their new prime minister a chance to prove his mettle.

They are mistaken. First, the effect of the no-deal threat on Brussels continues to be overestimated in London. The EU’s position—that it is open to plausible British suggestions—is the same as it has always been. The EU’s priority is to keep the rules of its club intact, to avoid other members angling for special treatment. With or without the threat of no-deal, it will make no more than marginal changes to the existing agreement. Second, even if the EU were to drop the backstop altogether, the resulting deal might well be rejected by “Spartan” Tory Brexiteers, so intoxicated by the idea of leaving without a deal that they seem ready to vote against any agreement. And third, even if an all-new deal were offered by the EU and then passed by Parliament, ratifying it in Europe and passing the necessary laws in Britain would require an extension well beyond October 31st. Mr Johnson’s vow to leave on that date, “do or die”, makes it impossible to leave with any new deal. It also reveals that he is fundamentally unserious about negotiating one.

That is why Parliament must act now to take no-deal off the table, by passing a law requiring the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension. Even before Mr Johnson poleaxed Parliament, this was not going to be easy. The House of Commons’ agenda is controlled by Downing Street, which will allow no time for such a bill. MPs showed in the spring that they could take temporary control of the agenda, when they passed a law forcing Mrs May to request an extension beyond the first Brexit deadline of March 29th. This time there is no current legislation to act as a “hook” for an amendment mandating an extension, so the Speaker of the House would have to go against precedent by allowing MPs to attach a binding vote to an emergency debate. All that may be possible. But with Parliament suspended for almost five weeks there will be desperately little time.

So, if rebel MPs cannot pass a law, they must be ready to use their weapon of last resort: kicking Mr Johnson out of office with a vote of no confidence. He has a working majority of just one. The trouble is that attempts to find a caretaker prime minister, to request a Brexit extension before calling an election, have foundered on whether it should be Jeremy Corbyn, the far-left Labour leader whom most Tories despise, or a more neutral figure.

If the various factions opposed to no-deal cannot agree, Mr Johnson will win. But if they needed a reason to put aside their differences, he has just given them one. The prime minister was already steering Britain towards a no-deal Brexit that would hit the economy, wrench at the union and cause a lasting rift with international allies. Now he has shown himself willing to stifle parliamentary democracy to achieve his aims. Wavering MPs must ask themselves: if not now, when?
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:07 pm

UK factory output 'falls at fastest pace for seven years'
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49549149
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Sep 04, 2019 1:39 pm

2019.09.01【文茜世界財經週報】為求脫歐強森政治突襲 策動國會休會
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRhNg81 ... xu&index=4


Brexit: Boris Johnson defeated as MPs take control
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49573555
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Re: United Kingdom 03 (Nov 17 to Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:59 pm

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