US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:54 am

MONDAY

The stage is set. The indices tested the top of the range -- on top of a 20%ish rally from the December low -- faded just a few sessions, then started a rebound Friday as new money for a new month flowed in. The market remains at the inflection point and will either breakout or move back down to varying degrees.

For now, no sellers have emerged. Indeed, many sectors are producing some good patterns and some good moves upside. The bias for now with the patterns and the ongoing move is obviously upside.

Without sellers it is hard for the market to fall. The buyers can slack off, pull their bids and wait for a better entry, but that is not selling. That is just a pause to set up more upside. Thus far, that is what last week looks like.

With that picture we have several more very solid upside plays at various levels of their moves. All are in position to make us good money. Thus, if the indices can continue the Friday move we will look at more positions and see if they can force an index breakout.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:12 am

CHARTS

All but SP400 bumped at or near the top of the range, faded to near support, then posted decent moves Friday. Not breakouts, just coming back up after the initial probe at resistance.

Fairly constructive, and now we see if the indices can turn something upside out of the action. The indices look as if they are going to take a shot at the resistance before testing more.


NASDAQ: Bumped the November peak Monday, the mid-high in the range tops, faded to the 200 day SMA, gapped upside Friday. Closed just over the November high, thus putting in a new closing high for the recovery. A little help from GOOG and some other mega-caps helped. Still, it was no major move in itself, though the work on the week was, as noted before, was constructive.

SP500: Nice tap at the top of the range, fade to the 10 day EMA, and gap upside Friday. Not bad, aided by many drug stocks. If the financials would join then SP500 has a shot at the breakout.

DJ30: Very similar, but a very tight range as well. Holding the 10 day EMA and right at the range tops. No breakout yet, but as noted many times, no sellers running in to sell it or any of the other indices.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:14 am

MARKET SUMMARY

- A week that tested resistance, faded, held support, then started back upside.
- Friday new money flowed in for the new month.
- US economic data remains on and off, but still expanding.
- China economics hurt then help stocks while a possible 'remarkable, historic' trade deal is hyped.
- Indices show no sellers and indeed more stocks are setting up very decent upside patterns.
- Indices now set to take on the range tops again.

It would appear that new money did not wait for the new week. March began Friday, and after a high-volume stagnant end to February, March blew in some solid index gains.

After some rather tepid US economic data -- yet again -- many see the Fed's easy money policy as appropriate, or that China's on again/off again economic data ('on' Friday with better manufacturing data after Thursday's extraordinarily weak import/export data) trumped the weaker US data.

Or perhaps Larry Kudlow's extolling the possibility of a "remarkable, historic" trade deal had something to do with it. Or, it was just time for new money to hit the market on a new month.

Whatever the cause or synergistic melding of events, stocks gapped higher, held the gap -- at least after a morning dive back to near flat -- and closed with some rather decent gains.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:38 pm

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
New York Times (NYT)... media
Chegg (CHGG)... textbooks, student resources
PayPal (PYPL)... digital payments
Splunk (SPLK)... software
Zendesk (ZEN)... customer-service software
Paychex (PAYX)... payroll services and software
VeriSign (VRSN)... Internet domain names
Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT)... wireless networks
Motorola Solutions (MSI)... telecom
Danaher (DHR)... industrial goods
Boeing (BA)... "offense" contractor
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)... medical devices
Eli Lilly (LLY)... prescription drugs
AstraZeneca (AZN)... prescription drugs
W.R. Berkley (WRB)... P&C insurance
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Tempur Sealy (TPX)... mattresses
Wayfair (W)... home goods
AutoZone (AZO)... auto parts


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK
Kraft Heinz (KHC)... Oscar Mayer, Jell-O, Velveeta
National Beverage (FIZZ)... LaCroix, Shasta, Faygo
Weight Watchers (WTW)... weight-loss help
Mylan (MYL)... generic drugs
CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:44 pm

The stock market and the economy are telling two different stories
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 09381.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:59 pm

Charts for 5 Equity ETFs Suggest That the Bear Market Rally Is Ending

BY RICHARD SUTTMEIER

Source: Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com/5-etfs-sug ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:11 am

CHARTS

Right now, the indices are at the 50 day EMA, the first support in the pullback. They are showing relative strength to DJ20, but you could also say they are lagging the DJ20 in that it has already made the run, tapped the top of the Oct/Dec range, and made an orderly drop to support. We will see if they are really just ahead of the game by how they rebound off the 50 day EMA.

Indeed, all the indices look pretty solid at the 50 day EMA, particularly DJ30 as the 50 day EMA has merged with the 200 day SMA; pretty solid support.

For now, given a weeklong decline after a week of lateral movement, landing on a key level, the indices can surely bounce for a couple of sessions. They can bounce more than that as well.

It all depends upon whether the big buyers see this as the point to buy or they let the indices fall to the bottom of the October/December range or even -- perish the thought -- to the December low.

What is also important is the money flow. Where is the money moving?

Shockingly, 2019 has seen $60B move out of equities. Ten weeks or $6B/week. The only other time this happened was the first 10 weeks of 2008, a banner year for stocks -- to the downside.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:13 am

MARKET SUMMARY

- Triple threat hits stocks Friday.
- Indices sell to the 50 day EMA as expected, show some support there as expected.
- China exports dive 20%, jobs produce just 20K, Xi/Trump trade summit put off by Chinese.
- Everyone focusing on the DJ20 and its decline as a negative, but perhaps DJ20 is just making the test and pattern before the other indices.
- Money leaves equities in 2019 as fast as the start of 2008.
- Despite the issues, the recent leaders still show excellent patterns.

Source: investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:03 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Starbucks (SBUX)... "World Dominator" of coffee
Yum Brands (YUM)... fast-food chains

Crown (CCK)... food packaging
MercadoLibre (MELI)... Latin America's Amazon
Euronet Worldwide (EEFT)... electronic payments
American Tower (AMT)... wireless infrastructure
Crown Castle (CCI)... wireless infrastructure
Zynga (ZNGA)... mobile games
Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI)... TV stations
E.W. Scripps (SSP)... media
iRobot (IRBT)... household robotic devices
Rent-A-Center (RCII)... rent-to-own furniture
Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)... utilities
American Water Works (AWK)... utilities
PPL (PPL)... utilities
Kinder Morgan (KMI)... oil & gas

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Alaska Air (ALK)... airline
CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores
Macy's (M)... retail
Kellogg (K)... snacks and cereal
National Beverage (FIZZ)... flavored soft drinks
Dean Foods (DF)... dairy products

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:38 pm

MONDAY

Good move on the week, some key intersections with resistance.

The market has not yet resolved the trading range inflection point, but it certainly is making the case for a more bullish outcome.

No selling at the highs, just profit taking. More solid patterns. Dormant groups (e.g. FAANG) coming back into play. Semiconductors continuing their leadership role after a week or so hiatus. That certainly bodes well from an upside perspective.

That does not mean post-expiration week rally there is some profit taking. Indices up for a week, many stocks up for a week or more, some approaching resistance, some just feeling gravity after very good moves.

After perhaps some more upside, perhaps not, if there is some likely profit taking, we plan using that to position for some new upside buys.

Indeed, there are still a LOT of stocks in good position to move higher after a week's market gains. Many did move upside on Friday, so they may very well have some post-expiration weakness.

That works as well because we can use a bit of a pullback on the plays we have to set up some better entries. Chips still look good with many solid setups, some software as well.

In any event, the upside bias remains, a bit of a giveback early week is okay for the new plays, and if the recent leaders want to give back a bit more and set up again for new buys a la V did, even better.

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