Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 18)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:37 pm

2018.12.09【文茜世界周報】巴黎香榭大道 淪為黃背心烽火戰場
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1m1v85Z ... AU&index=4


2018.12.09【文茜世界周報】黃背心野火燎原 馬克洪除了退讓別無選擇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sidj4Ln ... AU&index=3
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 18)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:48 pm

2018.12.16【文茜世界周報】二十一世紀資本論作者:黃背心聲討稅收正義
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-z5RH9n ... wMSAU&t=0s
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:29 pm

2019.01.06【文茜世界周報】馬克洪與法國人民相遇 愛情與政治皆近乎神話
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJyx6AU ... AU&index=4


2019.01.06【文茜世界周報】黃背心圍堵馬克洪 低調遠赴非洲勞軍過節
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ivWv9k ... AU&index=3


Recession fears are stalking Germany
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/08/econ ... index.html
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:07 pm

2019.01.13【文茜世界財經週報】義極右派公開支持黃背心 薩爾維尼唱衰馬克洪
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFDG1oX ... xu&index=3
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:56 pm

Italy in recession amid sluggish eurozone
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47068401
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:21 am

Italy sinks into recession

Italy has slipped back into recession just four years after its last one, official figures showed today, in a development that's likely to renew concerns about the outlook for the 19-country eurozone economy.

The Italian statistics agency said that the country's economy, the third-largest in the eurozone, contracted by a quarterly rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

Following a 0.1 percent drop in GDP in the previous three-month period that means Italy is in a technical recession, defined as two straight quarters of economic contraction.

Italy's recession is one reason why the wider eurozone slowed in 2018. Statistics agency Eurostat said Thursday that the eurozone grew by a meager 0.2 percent in the final quarter, the same as in the previous quarter.

As a result, the eurozone economy expanded by 1.8 percent in 2018 overall. That's lower than had been anticipated a year ago, when the bloc was expected to slow only slightly from 2017's strong 2.3 percent rate.

The Italian economy has become an acute source of concern over the past few months, partly as a result of the new populist government's spat with the European Union's executive Commission over its budget plans.

The government wants to ramp up spending to get the Italian economy going by providing more social security payments and rolling back a pension reform.

Ahead of the confirmation of the recession, Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte had said Wednesday that even if the contraction continues into the first months of 2019 "there are elements to hope for redemption in the second half.

Source: AP

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking- ... 0131&sid=2
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:28 pm

Lagging behind

Italy’s slump reflects trouble both at home and abroad
The weak economy complicates a fraught fiscal position

ITALY BOASTS no glittering economic record. GDP growth has trailed the euro-area average every year since 1999. Despite a decent showing in 2016-17, the economy has yet to regain fully the output lost during the global crisis a decade ago and a domestic banking scare a few years later

Now even its modest recovery seems to have gone into reverse. Figures published on January 31st showed that Italy slipped into recession in the second half of 2018. The economy shrank by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2018, its second consecutive contraction (see chart).

The causes are both domestic and external. They seem likely to depress the economy this year, too, and to worsen an already fraught fiscal position.

The euro zone—notably Germany—has lost momentum as global trade has slowed. Italy has not been immune. Exports rose by nearly 6% in 2017, but Loredana Federico of UniCredit, a bank, reckons they probably grew by just 1% last year.

Giada Giani of Citigroup, another lender, argues that the fate of Italy’s economy is tied to that of Germany’s, in part because of integrated manufacturing supply chains. Declining industrial production in Germany is likely to have spread south. (Germany’s GDP fell more sharply than Italy’s in the third quarter of 2018, though some of that dip was caused by a temporary halt to car production because of new emissions standards.)

Italy’s recession is also partly home-grown. In September 2018 its populist government unveiled budget plans for 2019 that defied the European Union’s fiscal rules. As the row with Brussels worsened, government borrowing costs rose sharply.

Tensions were eventually defused in December, when the government agreed to run a smaller deficit, largely by dint of postponing its plans to increase spending. Though the spread between Italy’s government-bond yields and those of safe-haven Germany has fallen from its peak, it is still higher than it was a year ago.

The instability has had an economic cost. A survey of lenders by the European Central Bank (ECB) found that in the fourth quarter of 2018 Italian banks became more fussy about whom they lent to, even as credit standards in other large euro-zone countries eased. That could reflect rising funding costs. The Bank of Italy, the national central bank, expects that rises in sovereign-bond yields will push Italian companies’ borrowing costs up by a percentage point over the next three years.

Olivier Blanchard and Jeromin Zettelmeyer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank, estimated in October that such financial-market effects would probably offset the boost from the government’s fiscal measures.

These domestic and external forces have similar economic effects, notes Nicola Nobile of Oxford Economics, a consultancy. They shake businesses’ and households’ confidence, leading them to delay spending. Measures of sentiment have weakened. The Bank of Italy notes that the share of firms expecting to increase investment in 2019 has fallen.

Economists have marked down their forecasts for GDP growth in 2019. The IMF expects growth of 0.6% in 2019, down from its forecast of 1% in October. Mr Nobile and Ms Giani have plumped for a more gloomy 0.2-0.3%.

ECB-watchers think that the bank may extend its targeted long-term refinancing operations. The scheme, which offers banks cheap funding in return for lending to firms and households, could help ease credit conditions in Italy.

Beyond that, policy options are limited. The ECB will inject further stimulus only in the event of a wider slowdown, rather than one confined to Italy. And anyway, any easing might be too little to counter Italy’s deeper slump.

Italy’s government now finds itself hemmed in. Economic weakness worsens its fiscal position. Public debt, already 132% of GDP, could rise further. The budget deficit will probably exceed the government’s target of 2% of GDP. That worse fiscal position could, in turn, make it harder for the government to stimulate the economy.

If the European Commission decides Italy has broken its fiscal rules, any further spending will cause another row. And last year’s episode showed that big spending plans can be self-defeating if financial markets are spooked.

Italy’s government would need to convince both Brussels and investors that extra spending would help the economy grow. Until then Italy will stagger on.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:42 am

The European Commission slashed growth expectations for 2019 for all the major euro economies.

For the EU overall, they are looking for 1.3% growth, versus 1.9% a few months ago.

Source: Forbes
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Feb 09, 2019 1:28 pm

A sputtering engine

It is time to worry about Germany’s economy
The country’s economic golden age could be coming to an end

THE WORLD is used to a thriving German economy. A decade ago, during the financial crisis, it shed relatively few jobs, as unemployment soared elsewhere. Since then it has been an anchor of fiscal stability while much of the euro zone has struggled with debt and deficits.

Its public debt is below the target of 60% of GDP set by EU treaties—and falling. Thanks to labour-market reforms introduced during the 2000s, Germans enjoy levels of employment that beat job-friendly Britain, even as inequality is barely higher than in France.

Its geographically dispersed manufacturing industries, made up of about 200,000 small and medium-sized firms, have mitigated the regional disparities that have fuelled populism across the West (see article).

Yet the German economy suddenly looks vulnerable. In the short term it faces a slowdown. It only narrowly avoided a recession at the end of 2018. Temporary factors, such as tighter emissions standards for cars, explain some of the weakness, but there is little sign of a bounceback.

Manufacturing output probably fell in January. Businesses are losing confidence. Both the IMF and the finance ministry have slashed growth forecasts for 2019 (see article). In the longer term, changing patterns of trade and technology are moving against Germany’s world-beating manufacturers. In response, on February 5th Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, laid out plans to block unwanted foreign takeovers and to promote national and European champions.

Germany is getting both the short and the long term wrong. Start with the business cycle. Many policymakers think the economy is close to overheating, pointing to accelerating wages and forecasts of higher inflation. In their view, slower growth was expected, necessary even. That is complacent.

Even before the slowdown, the IMF predicted that in 2023 core inflation will be only 2.5%—hardly a sign of runaway prices. In any case, higher German inflation would be welcome, as a way to resolve imbalances in competitiveness within the euro zone that would elsewhere adjust through exchange rates.

The risk is not of overheating but of Europe slipping into a low-growth trap as countries that need to gain competitiveness face an inflation ceiling set too low by Germany.

The slowdown also portends deeper problems for Germany’s globalised economic model. Weakness in part reflects the fallout from the trade war between China and America, two of Germany’s biggest trading partners. Both are increasingly keen on bringing supply chains home. America is due soon to decide whether to raise tariffs on European cars.

Trade is already becoming more regionalised as uncertainty grows. If global commerce splits into separate trading and regulatory blocs, Germany will find it harder to sell its goods to customers around the world.

Reform has made Germany’s labour market strong, but it will soon face new challenges. Industrial jobs look particularly vulnerable to automation, yet lifelong learning and retraining are relatively rare in Germany.

The workforce is ageing. Neither the government nor business is much digitised and neither invests enough. If technological change demands that its economy embraces digital services, Germany will struggle.

The government is not blind to these problems, but Mr Altmaier’s protectionism is the wrong medicine. The left, meanwhile, wants to roll back labour-market reforms. Better to expand a recent boost to infrastructure spending and press ahead, at scale, with tax incentives for private investment.

Both should help growth today and boost the economy’s long-term prospects. Significantly lower taxes on households would encourage a rebalancing away from exports and towards consumption. A dose of competition could invigorate coddled service industries. The German economy has had an impressive run, but cracks are appearing. It is time to worry.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Europe - Economic Data & News 13 (Dec 16 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:35 pm

2019.02.03【文茜世界財經週報】法國正嚴重分裂 籲黃背心放棄抗爭加入辯論
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRZw5bt ... wlqT1IXpxu
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