US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:04 am

Charts

DJ30 'sold off' to the 20 day EMA, testing it on the Friday intraday low before closing with a doji. Looks to have 'sold off' into a good lateral test that is setting up for a run at that January high.

SP500 is showing a doji at the 20 day EMA as well. Very orderly fade to support. Not violently volatile as seen in the past.

NASDAQ tested lower toward the 50 day MA as expected, showing a hammer doji and coming off the low. Maybe it wants to finish the 50 day MA test, but even so, that is not much of a drop. Some big names that rallied it were selling so NASDAQ sold. Now those names and NASDAQ are in good position to continue higher here from the middle of the range.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:45 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... "offense" contractor
Sturm, Ruger (RGR)... guns
Ingersoll Rand (IR)... industrial equipment
Cintas (CTAS)... work uniforms
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
Lowe's (LOW)... one-stop shop for home repairs
Tractor Supply (TSCO)... "rural lifestyle" retailer
Burlington Stores (BURL)... discount stores
Ross Stores (ROST)... discount stores
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only stores
d**k's Sporting Goods (DKS)... sporting-goods stores
Kroger (KR)... grocery stores
Church & Dwight (CHD)... Arm & Hammer, OxiClean
Hormel Foods (HRL)... Spam, Skippy, Muscle Milk
McCormick (MKC)... Old Bay, French's, Frank's RedHot
Darden Restaurants (DRI)... LongHorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden
Dine Brands Global (DIN)... IHOP, Applebee's
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... coffee, donuts, and more
AMC Entertainment (AMC)... movie theaters
SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS)... theme parks
Apple (AAPL)... "shareholder friendly" giant
Qualcomm (QCOM)... semiconductors
Paychex (PAYX)... payroll processor
Aetna (AET)... health insurance
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Humana (HUM)... health insurance
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)... auto parts
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

HSBC (HSBC)... British bank
Barrick Gold (ABX)... precious metals
Goldcorp (GG)... precious metals
Ford Motor (F)... Big Three automaker
General Motors (GM)... Big Three automaker
Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD)... beer giant

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:17 am

MONDAY

The FOMC is the following week and expected to hike rates at that meeting.

The indices continue to trend higher and in the face of quite a load of very negative views regarding the current market and the economy's future.

As noted during the week, big firms, economists, billionaires were saying another financial crisis will occur in 2019 or 2020, a recession in 2019, a bear market either is here now or in the near future -- the trending market that continues trending higher with leadership gets no respect.

'climbing the wall of worry.'

What worries me? The Fed. I commented on this Thursday, and if you have not you need to read that commentary. The Fed is speaking the 'Fed language' about the perils of a strong economy, particularly vis-a-vis the rest of the world.

The 2000 Fed created disaster out of prosperity and we are still paying the price. The current Fed is using different words but talking the same theories.

For now we continue to play the good setups because for now it is just negative talk and Fed posturing. If it changes and the market's character changes, we will change as well, but for now it has not.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:29 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: On the week NASDAQ held the 50 day MA test and started higher Tuesday. Paused Wednesday, gapped upside Thursday. Paused again Friday. Very solid volume Tuesday to Thursday as NASDAQ held and then broke higher off that key level. Looks very good to continue moving upside in its trend after this test and bounce.

SP500: Held the 20 day EMA on the week and bounced similar to NASDAQ, moving higher Tuesday, then a pause, then up again Thursday. Friday was flat, but SP500 is just below the late August all-time high.

DJ30: The same action as SP500, the move up off the weeklong 20 day EMA test on Tuesday, a rest day, then a gap upside to a higher rally high. Friday was not much but the Dow did edge higher.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:29 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: On the week NASDAQ held the 50 day MA test and started higher Tuesday. Paused Wednesday, gapped upside Thursday. Paused again Friday. Very solid volume Tuesday to Thursday as NASDAQ held and then broke higher off that key level. Looks very good to continue moving upside in its trend after this test and bounce.

SP500: Held the 20 day EMA on the week and bounced similar to NASDAQ, moving higher Tuesday, then a pause, then up again Thursday. Friday was flat, but SP500 is just below the late August all-time high.

DJ30: The same action as SP500, the move up off the weeklong 20 day EMA test on Tuesday, a rest day, then a gap upside to a higher rally high. Friday was not much but the Dow did edge higher.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:22 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Sony (SNE)... electronics giant
Microsoft (MSFT)... "digital utility"
Roku (ROKU)... streaming devices
Qualcomm (QCOM)... semiconductors
Salesforce.com (CRM)... cloud computing
Match (MTCH)... online-dating giant
Grubhub (GRUB)... "smart" food delivery
Square (SQ)... "cashless" society
PayPal (PYPL)... "cashless" society
American Express (AXP)... financial giant
Visa (V)... credit cards
Darden Restaurants (DRI)... LongHorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... Dunkin' Donuts, Baskin-Robbins
Kellogg (K)... Froot Loops, Pop-Tarts, Eggo
Accenture (ACN)... IT consulting
Aetna (AET)... health insurance
Pfizer (PFE)... prescription drugs
Boston Scientific (BSX)... pacemakers, catheters, and stents
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)... Similac, Pedialyte, Ensure
d**k's Sporting Goods (DKS)... sporting goods
Nike (NKE)... athletic apparel
Honeywell (HON)... manufacturing giant
Home Depot (HD)... one-stop shop for home repairs
Lowe's (LOW)... one-stop shop for home repairs
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paint
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts
Dollar General (DG)... discount retailer
T-Mobile (TMUS)... telecom
Verizon (VZ)... telecom

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Newmont Mining (NEM)... precious metals
Barclays (BCS)... British bank
HSBC (HSBC)... British bank
ING (ING)... Dutch bank
Ford Motor (F)... Big Three automaker
General Motors (GM)... Big Three automaker

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:06 am

[b]MONDAY

FOMC week with a rate hike Wednesday and no doubt more trade issues. Some possibly positive re Canada, but China is getting even more persnickety with each US move to ratchet up the pressure. Then there is the administration's animosity toward social media and talk of an executive order. Don't forget AMZN has in the past drawn the President's ire.

That is all well and good, but all that information is distilled down into the stock and index patterns. Again, new highs on DJ30 and SP500 as money moved their way after 2.5 week consolidation, and now NASDAQ and the other growth indices have put in consolidations to support. Does the same rotation pattern continue? Perhaps they all move up together for a change? Or does one side roll over to the benefit of others?

New leadership is trying to show up in support, e.g. energy, some telecom, financials are trying their hand. Of course it would help the entire market if the NASDAQ large caps started higher as they trade on several exchanges. Definitely time for them to rebound and put in their next upside leg after 3 weeks testing.

Thus, we look at more good setups but there are more sectors to choose from as the week progresses as some new patterns are setting up. We will see if they continue to do so and make the breaks higher.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:19 pm

CHARTS

DJ30 put in a pair of new highs to end the week, the last of the big indices to take out the January all-time high. Now the dog has caught the car while NASDAQ big names are at important support. Will the pattern of rotation continue or will a break occur where the NYSE large caps dominate while NASDAQ large caps and growth base?

DJ30: Solid 4-session move to 2 new highs to end the week. Friday DJ30 gapped to a doji. Good 4-session move, about the most it has put in on its prior runs. It could come back to test after the new high, but overall in a trend upside, sitting on a good breakout move to a new high.

NASDAQ: Fell back to the 50 day MA Monday. Started up off that level into the Thursday close, showing very good price/volume action on that move, i.e. strong volume on the up sessions, lower volume on the downside day. Friday a gap higher looked promising, but it was sold as big names sold back. Volume spiked, but it was S&P rebalance Friday so you have to toss volume
out the window for the day.

SP500: Gapped to a higher new high then reversed for a modest loss to end a week that saw a hold of the 20 day EMA and rebound. SP500 gapped to a new high Thursday, looking to put some mileage on the prior peak. It did that, but still problematic as SP500 is over the upper trendline and trying to extend the move. Important that it does.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:53 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Aetna (AET)... health insurance
Pfizer (PFE)... prescription drugs
Medtronic (MDT)... insulin pumps and pacemakers
Baxter (BAX)... anesthesia, syringes, and more
Boston Scientific (BSX)... pacemakers, catheters, and stents
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)... Warren Buffett's holding company
American Express (AXP)... financial giant
Visa (V)... credit cards
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Nike (NKE)... athletic shoes and apparel
Sony (SNE)... TVs, cameras, gaming consoles
Match (MTCH)... digital matchmaker
T-Mobile (TMUS)... telecom
Honeywell (HON)... manufacturing giant
Lowe's (LOW)... "fixer upper" stock
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)... paints and coatings
Waste Management (WM)... trash and recycling
Rollins (ROL)... "king of pest control"
Clorox (CLX)... bleach, cleaning products, and more
Kellogg (K)... Frosted Flakes, Rice Krispies, Nutri-Grain
McCormick (MKC)... Old Bay, French's, Frank's RedHot
Yum Brands (YUM)... KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut
Mosaic (MOS)... fertilizer
Nutrien (NTR)... fertilizer
United Continental (UAL)... airline
Spirit Airlines (SAVE)... airline
Union Pacific (UNP)... railroads
Norfolk Southern (NSC)... railroads


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Whirlpool (WHR)... home appliances
Snap (SNAP)... social media
Scientific Games (SGMS)... slot machines, lotteries, and more
AutoNation (AN)... America's largest auto retailer

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec18)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:08 pm

CHARTS


NASDAQ: Up on the week, bouncing off a drop to the 50 day MA's. Was rocking higher Wednesday then the foul Powell comments hit and it gave up the move. Didn't stop the big techs; they moved higher Thursday and Friday, though a most modest move. Still trending, getting help from the big techs as NASDAQ 100 is outperforming NASDAQ overall.


SP500: Down on the week, gapping lower Monday and unable to recover by Friday. Too much to deal with for any bids to feel really good and thus buyers stayed home. Still trending up the 20 day EMA and still bumping around the upper channel line. SP500 has found it difficult to break out and hold a breakout over the upper channel line.

Often that will wear out an attempt to move over it and precipitate a test lower in the channel. With the financials providing no help, this could be the potential 'dip' ahead discussed in the market overview. There are some really good setups in the industrial side, however, and if they move that will help SP500's upside.


DJ30: Still holding the 10 day EMA in its test back from its new all-time high posted the previous Friday. Low volume on the fade, even on the Powell pause day. DJ30 remains well-poised to move higher with stocks such as CAT, UTX, BA in excellent position. Indeed, BA started upside Friday off its fade, perhaps signaling the others are to follow.


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