US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:39 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Boston Scientific (BSX)... pacemakers, catheters, and stents
Baxter (BAX)... medical devices
LabCorp (LH)... medical testing
Weight Watchers (WTW)... weight-loss help
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... America's fitness boom
Boston Beer (SAM)... America's craft-brewery craze
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos
Wendy's (WEN)... burgers, fries, Frosty shakes
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... coffee and donuts
Grubhub (GRUB)... "on demand" delivery app
Twitter (TWTR)... "bad to less bad"
Electronic Arts (EA)... video games
Salesforce.com (CRM)... cloud computing
Square (SQ)... mobile payments
Global Payments (GPN)... mobile payments
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce juggernaut
Target (TGT)... discount retailer
Burlington Stores (BURL)... discount "one-stop shop"
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Ferrari (RACE)... sports cars
CSX (CSX)... railroads
Norfolk Southern (NSC)... railroads
Cameco (CCJ)... uranium
W.W. Grainger (GWW)... safety gloves, ladders, and more
Cintas (CTAS)... work uniforms

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Electric Power (AEP)... utility
Consolidated Edison (ED)... utility
Duke Energy (DUK)... utility
H&R Block (HRB)... victim of the new tax law

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:23 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: After gapping modestly higher Thursday (but not to a new high) and reversing to close at the 10 day EMA, Friday NASDAQ gapped higher again but gave it up to close just below the 10 day EMA. That keeps NASDAQ in the all-time high range it broke into, but there was some selling of big names, many of which are at near support. The key for NASDAQ is whether the big names can hold on and resume their moves.

SP500: The pattern remains a solid one as noted Thursday. A 20 day EMA test the past 1.5 weeks after moving to a higher recovery high on this leg. If the other areas such as large drug companies, oil companies start to pitch in, then SP500 has more upside push even if areas such as financials still stink. For now.

DJ30: Up Friday, but the Dow has issues the other indices do not, namely its components and too few to help it out. That said, JNJ may be ready to bounce as may MMM. Those will help, but the Dow also has financials and machinery, and they are more than paperweights right now.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:58 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizza
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... burritos
Shake Shack (SHAK)... burgers, fries, milkshakes
Darden Restaurants (DRI)... LongHorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden
Dunkin' Brands (DNKN)... coffee and donuts
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)... eggs
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)... food-processing giant
Sysco (SYY)... food products
Boston Beer (SAM)... America's craft-brewery craze
Extra Space Storage (EXR)... America's self-storage boom
Public Storage (PSA)... America's self-storage boom
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... America's fitness boom
Callaway Golf (ELY)... golf equipment
Madison Square Garden (MSG)... sports and entertainment empire
SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS)... theme parks
Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)... theme parks
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
New York Times (NYT)... global news leader
Visa (V)... global credit-card leader
Square (SQ)... "cashless" society
PayPal (PYPL)... "cashless" society
GoDaddy (GDDY)... domain names
Facebook (FB)... "FANG" stock
Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock
Netflix (NFLX)... "FANG" stock
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)... auto parts
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)... auto parts

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

General Dynamics (GD)... "offense" contractor
General Electric (GE)... debt-ridden industrial giant
Cummins (CMI)... diesel engines, generators
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)... tools and storage
Tupperware Brands (TUP)... household goods
Xerox (XRX)... office supplies

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:55 pm

CHARTS

Still working at key support levels, trying to find footing. Or not. This is, as noted, a continued key test for the indices.


NASDAQ: Gapped higher, coughed up the move, closed basically flat. Still over the 50 day MA, now for 5 sessions as it too assesses trade versus the Fed.

Now, if you look at the technical picture, NASDAQ is halfway in the uptrend channel that is using the early 2016 trendline as the lower channel line. Now for those of you who have been with us for a bit know that higher lows at important support inside channels, horizontal trading ranges,
triangles, etc. can lead to breakouts from the patterns. Thus, this is a positive at this level, but a potential one as NASDAQ will have to make the move.


SP500: Very similar to SP400, also holding the 50 day MA the past week. Also, a potential head and shoulders to watch for if the index bounces to 2750ish and stalls, it likely has to deal with some downside. Important higher high at important support.


DJ30: Held 24,000 on the low for the week, trying to rebound as in April and May. Important test, needs some financials to help out.

Summary: Held the week at key support, but now has to deal with a holiday shortened week and the month of the summer earnings season. Calls are for 20% earnings growth. Very optimistic but again, the issue is trade, and in the background the Fed and that flattening yield curve.


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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:21 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Extra Space Storage (EXR)... America's self-storage boom
Public Storage (PSA)... America's self-storage boom
CubeSmart (CUBE)... America's self-storage boom
Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA)... entertainment
Madison Square Garden (MSG)... sports and entertainment empire
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Costco Wholesale (COST)... membership-only bulk retailer
Ross Stores (ROST)... discount retailer
DSW (DSW)... shoes
Boston Beer (SAM)... Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)... food processing
Sysco (SYY)... food products
McCormick (MKC)... spices
Hess (HES)... oil and gas
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)... oil and gas

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)... drugstores
Cardinal Health (CAH)... prescription drugs
McKesson (MCK)... prescription drugs
General Dynamics (GD)... "offense" contractor
American Airlines (AAL)... airline
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)... cruises
Carnival (CCL)... cruises
IBM (IBM)... computers
Deutsche Bank (DB)... German bank

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:33 pm

MONDAY

Ah, a full week. The market will show if the moves I deemed significant from Thursday and Friday (even with low volume) will hold the move.

Substantive leadership helped drive the move, leaders from the prior rally.

Building on the significance of the 'significant move' call, we are looking at adding positions if the new plays and existing plays make significant moves. We will also let existing positions continue to work, some rebounding from the prior selling, others from our recent entry points.

Earnings are just ahead, indeed already starting, and stocks, after a selloff, are stirring higher ahead of results. That may give us some nice gains to take before individual announcements, and with the pullback there could still be good upside even on the results announcement.

We will see how that plays out, but for now we are looking to enter more plays as they
continue making significant moves.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:46 pm

CHARTS

NASDAQ: A significant move here as well though not until Friday. NASDAQ broke from its 8 session lateral move over the 50 day MA. Not huge trade but a key group of large cap techs along with small cap drugs posted solid moves. NASDAQ closed at the early June interim high and the March high. Of course it needs to keep powering upside to a new high.

SP500: Rallied out of its 8-session 50 day MA lateral move as well. Not closing in on a new high, just the early June peak that was still below the March lower high and well off the late January high at 2870. Okay, lots to do still without any help from the financial stocks. That makes SP500's attempt higher difficult, but it is holding where it has to and is at least following.

DJ30: Works for now, but definitely a follower with its financial and industrial components hurting it. Its drug components are helping, but even with that help all DJ30 could do Friday was move back up through the 200 day SMA.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:16 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Life Storage (LSI)... America's self-storage boom
Public Storage (PSA)... America's self-storage boom
Live Nation (LYV)... concerts and festivals
Madison Square Garden (MSG)... sports and entertainment
Darden Restaurants (DRI)... LongHorn Steakhouse, Olive Garden
McCormick (MKC)... spices
Sysco (SYY)... food products
Church & Dwight (CHD)... Arm & Hammer, Orajel, OxiClean
DSW (DSW)... shoes
TransUnion (TRU)... credit reports
Royal Gold (RGLD)... gold royalties
Exelon (EXC)... utilities
NetApp (NTAP)... "cloud" storage

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

MGM Resorts (MGM)... casinos and resorts
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)... casinos and resorts
American Airlines (AAL)... airline
Carnival (CCL)... cruises
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)... cruises

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:18 am

MONDAY

Earnings should be the driving story on the week with NFLX starting it off Monday afternoon.

Earnings are always hit or miss; even if earnings are beaten a stock can still decline. It could be, and I said so Thursday and Friday.

On the week, earnings will flow, the yield curve will remain flat, and trade issues are still out there.

Earnings are key, but they will just provide the impetus for NASDAQ, SP400, and RUTX that are testing back after reaching prior or new highs. How they hold and rebound -- or not -- tells the story of these attempts at prior highs.

They tested them, backed off, and now holding near support, regrouping. The next moves will tell the tale for them.

At the same time, watch SP500 and DJ30. Some money is moving their way. Will it continue moving in even if the growth areas break higher off their tests? Or, will money leave the growth areas and move to the large cap NYSE stocks? Those will be important notes to watch for, important tells, regarding existing positions.

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Re: US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Jul18)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:33 am

CHARTS

NASDAQ: New high Thursday, then flat Friday as NFLX sold and the bids faded. Nonetheless, a solid indication. The next key move is how NASDAQ reacts to that new high, i.e. can it hold and resume or whether it reverses. NASDAQ took a break to test the 10 day EMA just before the break higher; it is rested to make the move and thus it should hold if it is for real.

SP500: Nice break higher Thursday as well, then Friday a modest rise on no volume an important move upside and now this week with the earnings we see if this important move from midrange off the January high holds and then continues.

DJ30: Also came to life last week, indeed the past two weeks, but the Dow is still well off the June peak that itself was well off the January peak. About midrange for the trading range with a lot of work ahead of it.

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