US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

US - Market Direction 41 (Mar 18 - Dec19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:36 am

MONDAY

After a day or two, however, I would not be surprised if the move runs out of gas and the final test toward the February low is on.

The leadership looks good and it could lead the market higher. What likely happens as the
market sells again to test the prior low, and during that time these stocks can hold up and be ready for the bounce.

Friday was interesting, a solid short covering move. The next point of note is how stocks open Monday. A bounce and we see how it holds, for the day or more.

A bounce can turn into something really solid given how many quality stocks there are in good patterns, but it has to prove it.

For those stocks that bounce but are lagging, using the move higher to exit is not a bad strategy.

The probabilities are that the market is not through the selling episode yet. A bounce could turn to a new high but likely stalls out and then makes that second drop that usually puts an end to a selloff . . . IF the economy is still solid, if the Fed is not on the path to wreck it, if war does not erupt, if the trade issues don't explode.

A few ifs, but for now we play the market that has the most probabilities, and that is a test to the prior lows. The more immediate question is whether the market can make more upside than just the Friday move before it stalls and falls.

The reason is this is a tumultuous time in the market. Trends are in flux and thus moves are for most stocks shorter term. That is why while we have positions, we don't have a lot of money in the market right now. Too easy to get whipsawed.

When the break lower occurs, if it does, sure we want to play that downside short term. Then when a new move starts, if there are very good patterns to play, that is a time to put more money in.

If the move lower does not come, we play leaders upside, and if more and more join in and the market breaks out, we put more money to work.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:45 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)... America's "financial backbone"
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)... online brokerage
MercadoLibre (MELI)... online marketplace
Amazon (AMZN)... "FANG" stock
Netflix (NFLX)... "FANG" stock
Apple (AAPL)... iPhones, iPads, and more
Cisco (CSCO)... Internet "plumbing"
Intel (INTC)... semiconductors
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
Salesforce.com (CRM)... software for businesses
Box (BOX)... cloud storage
Shutterfly (SFLY)... digital photos, prints
Sirius XM (SIRI)... satellite radio
Ruth's Hospitality Group (RUTH)... steaks
Dine Brands Global (DIN)... IHOP, Applebee's
Blue Buffalo Pet Products (BUFF)... pet food
Boeing (BA)... "offense" contractor
U.S. Steel (X)... steel
Progressive (PGR)... insurance
CBRE Group (CBG)... "picks and shovels" in commercial real estate
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)... apparel innovator
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Campbell Soup (CPB)... soups, sauces, and more
Kraft Heinz (KHC)... ketchup, cheese, and more
Papa John's International (PZZA)... pizza
Sturm, Ruger (RGR)... guns
Dish Network (DISH)... satellite TV
Barnes & Noble (BKS)... bookstores

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:19 pm

The bull market just turned 9 years old. Will it live to see 10?
http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/09/investi ... index.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:05 am

MONDAY

With the market moving you want to continue moving into stocks that are setting up then breaking higher. If more continue to do so, then you will see RUTX, SP400 and even the large cap NYSE make new highs as well. Leadership will have to fan out more to get all to new highs.

What may happen Monday is a bit of give back after such a huge end to the week on such an emotional high (jobs, NKorea). That would be just fine as we can use that perhaps to get some better entries on stocks that started to break higher but we did not want to chase on a Friday.

Buy on Monday, sell on Friday, right? Okay, there are a few twists in there of course, but after such good happy time moves to end a week, then a bit of give back early week is normal. Again, we want to use that to enter well-positioned stocks that made a break higher but are testing it.

Again, the market was resilient, buying time, holding gains, letting patterns set up in the recovery. Then when good news hit, it was upside again. Will see if money shifts back their way this week as we let winners work and look for new areas, preferably after a brief pullback, to put money to work.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:21 am

THE CHARTS

NASDAQ was up sharply and put in a new high, but have to go with SOX first as it led the way. This is not just another move. The indices defied history in moving to higher highs. This does not mean that SP500, DJ30 have to hit new highs, but there is strength showing that is not usual for these patterns.

NASDAQ: Gap and rally past the January high, closing out at the high on rising, above average trade. NASDAQ defies the typical selling pattern thus far. New highs are no guarantee they have to hold, but it has plenty of leadership including many chip stocks.

SP500: A definite laggard, and though it was up, volume was still tepid as SP500 matched the late February peak. It is a pattern similar to what NASDAQ showed and rallied from so it is not necessarily a bag of chopped liver. Perhaps its time will come this week and it follows in NASDAQ's footsteps after SOX hits the upper channel line and needs to take a breather
along with NASDAQ.

DJ30: Could not even muster a move to match the late February high a la SP500. Stalled at the 50 day SMA on a bit better trade, though nothing near average. Even the DJ20 transports are matching the late February high right now.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:36 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Intel (INTC)... semiconductors
Micron Technology (MU)... semiconductors
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... software
GoDaddy (GDDY)... world's largest domain-name provider
Netflix (NFLX)... tech "game changer"
Twitter (TWTR)... "bad to less bad"
Match (MTCH)... match-making goes online
Grubhub (GRUB)... on-demand food delivery
Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce powerhouse
Etsy (ETSY)... online marketplace
Shutterfly (SFLY)... digital photos, prints
Square (SQ)... mobile payments
Interactive Brokers (IBKR)... online brokerage
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)... online brokerage
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Tapestry (TPR)... luxury purses
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Lululemon Athletica (LULU)... innovative apparel
Churchill Downs (CHDN)... horse racing and gambling
Eldorado Resorts (ERI)... casinos
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)... video games
World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)... pro wrestling
Callaway Golf (ELY)... golf equipment
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... low-cost gyms
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)... revolutionary drugs
WD-40 (WDFC)... household chemicals
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper
Arch Coal (ARCH)... coal
Rayonier (RYN)... timberland

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
Harley-Davidson (HOG)... motorcycles
Blue Apron (APRN)... "coin-toss investment"
Tootsie Roll Industries (TR)... candy

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:47 pm

‘I hope you’re sitting down before I show you this next chart,’ says trader

by Annie Pei

Based on the performance of the S&P 500 sectors, it could be hard for the market to retake and break above the all-time highs it made Jan. 26.

Of the 11 sectors that make up the S&P, Gordon points out that only the tech sector has broken above its Jan. 26 highs.

"We are starting to hesitate at that last retracement level, which [tends to precede a lot of reversals]," he said.

"So we're starting to get a bit of a double top at around the $280 region here in the SPY, and it looks like we might be heading lower."


Source: CNBC.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/i-hope- ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:25 pm

The Conditions for an Ongoing Bull Market Are Still Here

by Dani Burger and Sid Verma

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:18 pm

Are Investors Out of the Woods After the Recent Pullback?

Well, times is still up for investors who want to coast, at least

By JOHN JAGERSON AND WADE HANSEN

SPDR Sector ETFs since the beginning of 2018
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLK): 7.7%
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLY): 5.4%
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF): 4%
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV): 2.8%
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLI): 0.2%
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLB): -1.6%
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU): -4%
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP): -4.3%
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLRE): -4.7%
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE): -7.7%


Source: SlingShot Trader

https://investorplace.com/2018/03/inves ... 240&num=01
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Mar 18)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:37 am

MONDAY

It is FOMC week and this time it is expected the Fed will hike rates 25 BP, one of those 3 hikes for 2018.

More important than the hiking is the QT, the 'quantitative tightening' as the Fed removes the buys of the junk assets from its balance sheet, the 'give us your poor, your wretched junk assets
yearning for a buyer of last resort' program.

The leading indices have recovered much or all of the February losses. They rallied to new highs or close thereto and are now testing those moves.

The big question, the huge question, is whether they can use the consolidations to break higher yet again, putting in new highs that can hold.

If there is a fail at this point, it is likely an epic one that leads to a test of the February low.

Key for this area, given the Tuesday action, is how any new breaks higher, to new highs particularly, are treated. If they get the same old smack in the face that Tuesday saw, that shows the sellers are still ready, willing, and able to sell at this level.

Breaks higher that fail shortly thereafter, are of course not good action, and if they start popping up all over the place, that tells you the sellers are using each move higher to unload
shares and that a downturn is coming.

Thus, Tuesday was a warning, but just a warning because the sellers left and stocks consolidated nicely. The next breaks higher off these pullbacks, however, will really be the moves that tell the market's near-term tale.

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