US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:01 pm

CHARTS

The prior week was a rally week. The past week was a decent test of that rally. No pre-weekend, thumb in the eye of North Korea and Irma rally; investors and traders apparently had enough adventure and would just wait for the weekend and the storm to hit.

That leaves the stock indices for the most part still in good shape to continue the rally on this leg to a new high, then we see what happens.

NASDAQ: Fell to the 10 day EMA Tuesday and spent the week working laterally there. That keeps NASDAQ over the early June prior high and just off the late July all-time high. Good rally, nice fade to test, now NASDAQ shows if it can make the next break higher.

RUTX: A weeklong test of the two week rally off the August low. Sold on Tuesday with the other indices, spent the balance of the week showing doji over the 10 day EMA. Nice sharp rally, easy test, in good position to move higher.

DJ30: DJ30 was on the way higher when Tuesday hit and it gapped lower and sold to the 50 day MA. It spent the week there, but managed to stretch out the pattern decently to keep it in the trend and thus in the game for a move higher.

SP500: Same story, i.e. the selloff Tuesday after the rally the prior week up through the 50 day MA. Holds the 50 day MA all week, working in a tight range Wednesday to Friday. Higher low possibility still in the 2017 uptrend.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:38 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Cigna (CI)... health insurance
UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance
Biogen (BIIB)... pharmaceuticals
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)... pharmaceuticals
AbbVie (ABBV)... prescription drugs
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)... Similac, Pedialyte, Ensure
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Visa (V)... credit cards

Shopify (SHOP)... e-commerce winner
LendingTree (TREE)... Internet peer-to-peer lending
GoDaddy (GDDY)... Internet domain names
eBay (EBAY)... Internet auctions
Match (MTCH)... Internet dating
Grubhub (GRUB)... on-demand food delivery
CarMax (KMX)... used cars
Ferrari (RACE)... fast cars
Swift Transportation (SWFT)... trucking
U.S. Concrete (USCR)... concrete
Mohawk Industries (MHK)... world's largest flooring maker
Lumber Liquidators (LL)... hardwood and laminate flooring
Align Technology (ALGN)... Invisalign
Estée Lauder (EL)... makeup, skin care, fragrances
Procter & Gamble (PG)... the everyday goods in your house
VF Corporation (VFC)... the everyday clothes in your closet
Madison Square Garden (MSG)... sports and entertainment
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)... video games
Southern Copper (SCCO)... copper
Franco-Nevada (FNV)... precious metals royalties
Royal Gold (RGLD)... precious metals royalties

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Outdoor Brands (AOBC)... guns
Sturm, Ruger (RGR)... guns
Harley-Davidson (HOG)... motorcycles
Mattel (MAT)... toys
Viacom (VIAB)... the death of traditional television

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:39 am

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

The iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:IWM) is gapping higher to hit early August levels, continuing a run of relative strength versus the S&P 500 that started on Aug. 22.

Still, smaller stocks remain within the confines of a relative strength downtrend since December as investors have since focused on a narrow group of large-cap tech stocks.

That’s kept small stocks rangebound in a ten-month consolidation range.

Watch for a surge of upward momentum should this broad market uptrend persists, as smaller stocks are better positioned to rally on any perceived acceleration in GDP growth and corporate earnings growth heading into 2018.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:20 pm

Stock pickers beware: the bull run is ending and it’s time to hew back to the benchmark indices

The bull run is facing a great many challenges and so a bit of profit taking might be timely.

54 per cent of fund managers managed to outperform their benchmarks in the first half.

This contrasts with 93 per cent of managers underperforming these same benchmarks from 2103 to 2016.


Data for US-listed domestic equity ETFs show that the net inflow for the period to July was US$79.4 billion, compared to US$167 billion for all of last year.


US mutual funds, which suffered a net outflow of US$235 billion last year, a loss that has been reduced to US$75 billion in the first seven months of this year.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/21 ... -benchmark
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:48 pm

An investing legend who's nailed the bull market at every turn sees no end in sight for the 269% rally
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investin ... 35011.html
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:50 pm

CHARTS

DJ30: Gapped to yet another new all-time high, making it 2 straight as well as 3 straight new closing highs. Very much what prior new high moves have shown, i.e. a break higher and then a more or less steady, albeit unspectacular, move higher.

SP500: Creeping along to higher highs Tuesday to Friday, putting in a new one Friday, closing just over the 2500 level. Still has not taken it out with any authority. This is also quite typical of the post-new high moves in this market rally: new high, then less than spectacular moves. Higher
yes, but less than spectacular.

NASDAQ: New closing highs on the week but after that move a fade to test the 10 day EMA. Friday a test and rebound upside. No new high Friday, but a solid test of the move, holding at near support. Now we see if NASDAQ can resume the leadership role after a quick test of the new high. It has shown better post-new high moves, e.g. in July, so it is capable of using this
good setup for a new break higher.

RUTX: Small caps posted a solid week, up 4 of 5 sessions and moving through resistance from March, April, and indeed past the June high as well. Obviously a bit more than just a relief bounce off the July to August selling, doing its best to break up any notion of a head and shoulders top formation over the past 5 months.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:35 pm

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
PayPal (PYPL)... mobile payments
Square (SQ)... mobile payments
Alibaba (BABA)... Internet retail
Etsy (ETSY)... Internet marketplace
eBay (EBAY)... Internet auctions
Baidu (BIDU)... China's version of Google
Oracle (ORCL)... computer software
Adobe Systems (ADBE)... computer software
Microsoft (MSFT)... Windows, Office, Xbox
Procter & Gamble (PG)... everyday goods in your home
NVR (NVR)... capital-efficient homebuilder
D.R. Horton (DHI)... America's largest homebuilder
Mohawk Industries (MHK)... world's largest flooring maker
Home Depot (HD)... "fixer upper" stock
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)... tools and storage
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU)... cars, trucks
CarMax (KMX)... used cars
Camping World (CWH)... recreational vehicles
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)... trucking
Caterpillar (CAT)... heavy machinery
Norfolk Southern (NSC)... one of America's largest railroad systems
Consolidated Edison (ED)... one of the country's largest utilities firms
Coca-Cola (KO)... global soft-drink titan
Planet Fitness (PLNT)... low-cost gyms
Estée Lauder (EL)... makeup, skin care, fragrances
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)... Similac, Pedialyte, Ensure
AbbVie (ABBV)... prescription drugs
Waste Management (WM)... trash and recycling


NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:34 am

MONDAY

We believe this current rally can continue another week or so, but then hits the downside of
the cycle.

That will set up the next leg higher, and combined with the seasonal driver, it could be a good move to the close of the year.

Source: Investment House
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Re: US - Market Direction 40 (May 17 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:44 am

CHARTS

RUTX: New all-time closing high, closing just below the July highs.. Impressive second leg of the run from the July/August selloff, recovering the entire loss. Made the move without another rest. 55 points off the early September test lows, almost the exact number of points off the August selloff low. With that kind of move and sitting at the prior high, it makes
sense the small caps test here.


NASDAQ: Hit a new high on the week, then faded into Friday to the 20 day EMA. Held that level then rebounded modestly to end the week. Bumped resistance, could not make any real inroads, but if NASDAQ holds the 20 day EMA and bounces, it has put in a great higher low and is well-positioned to break higher and move to a real new high.

Nothing nefarious, but thus far unable to put in a solid new high as in prior rallies. Perhaps that is still in front of it, but at this point we have some good positions, some good gain built in, and we can afford to let NASDAQ show if it can make that next break higher.


DJ30: Broke to a new high through Wednesday, faded Thursday and Friday to test just over the 10 day EMA. Impressive, same move it made in late July/early August, normal test. That was the case in the last move, then suddenly the 10 day EMA didn't hold. Thus far, very good looking test.


SP500: Spent the week slow dancing with the upper channel trendline from way back in 2009, yes the trendline established after the Fed went full frontal QE. Bumped the TL Monday through Thursday, backing off Thursday and Friday. Backed off but held the 10 day EMA; not much backing down.

Financial stocks really helped SP500 on the week, but now we have to see how they perform now they are at the top of their range.

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