China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Wed May 15, 2019 3:04 pm

China economy growth slows sharply in April, even before higher US trade tariffs take effect
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... r-us-trade
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu May 16, 2019 7:55 am

Weak China data adds pressure for stimulus

China's industries, exports and retail sector, showed lower than expected growth last month, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus as the trade war with the United States escalates.

Retail sales rose 7.2 percent in April from a year earlier, the slowest pace since May 2003 for April,

The data suggested consumers were now beginning to cut back spending on everyday products from personal care to cosmetics, and continued to shun expensive items such as cars.

"Weak retail sales partially stemmed from a deterioration in employment and declining income of the middle-and-low income groups," said Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust.

Growth in industrial output slowed more than expected to 5.4 percent in April year-on-year, pulling back from a 4-1/2 year high of 8.5 percent in March, which some analysts had suspected was boosted by seasonal and temporary factors. Analysts polled had forecast output would grow 6.5 percent.

Exports meanwhile unexpectedly shrank in April in the face of US tariffs and weaker global demand, while new factory orders from at home and abroad remained sluggish.

Weighing on industrial output, motor vehicle production dropped nearly 16 percent. Earlier this week, industry data showed automobile sales in China fell 14.6 percent in April, the 10th consecutive month of decline.

The yuan traded lower with the offshore yuan hitting an intra-day low at 6.9177, just shy of its 2019 low at 6.9194 versus the US dollar. .

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0516&sid=2
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon May 20, 2019 3:32 pm

The Closing of the Chinese Mind
https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ei-2019-04


2019.05.19【文茜世界財經週報】美中爭霸 貿易角力成長期衝突前哨戰
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWvVK1i ... xu&index=2
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed May 29, 2019 8:55 am

An under-the-radar way to measure economic growth in China is painting a bleak picture

by Fred Imbert

Diesel demand in China fell 14% and 19% in March and April respectively, reaching levels not seen in a decade, according to data compiled by Wells Fargo.

“We believe the accelerating decline is most likely tied to economic factors and the effects of the tariff ‘war’ with the U.S.,” Wells Fargo energy analyst Roger Read said in a note Monday. “If one wants to worry, that is where to focus most closely in our view.”

China said in April its economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019. However, global investors and economists have been skeptical of China’s official economic figures for years as they believe they overstate how much China’s economy is growing.

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/falling ... KW,29S0D,1
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:40 pm

China is establishing an ‘unreliable entities’ list that will include companies and people
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/china-i ... eople.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:52 pm

Deeper in the red

As growth slows, the spectre of local-government debt looms once more
The central government urges spending, but regions are burdened by debt

A STATUE OF a golden bull, poised to charge, stands outside the headquarters of Xiangtan Jiuhua, a government-owned company that funds much of Xiangtan’s infrastructure investment. It has seen better days: the gold paint is flaking and the torso is cracked.

That makes it a fitting symbol for public finances in the sprawling prefecture of 3m people in central China, and scores of similar cities across the country, where the ambitions of local officials have collided with heavy debt loads.

Concerns about local balance-sheets in China have recurred over the past decade. Recently they have come into sharp focus again. Attempts to clean up local debts have not worked. And borrowing looks set to rise as the trade war rumbles on: China wants its provinces and cities to prop up growth by building roads and railways.

At just 38% of GDP, less than half the average in advanced economies, government debt in China might seem under control. But that misses much of what is happening.

Local governments have long relied on off-balance-sheet debt to solve a perennial policy quandary. They are responsible for about 85% of public expenditures, yet command only 50% of revenues.

Moreover, central authorities make it hard for them to borrow formally, hoping to limit their profligacy. So they have created entities such as Xiangtan Jiuhua, referred to as “local-government financing vehicles” (LGFVs). These are registered as companies. But creditors know—or, rather, assume—that the state stands behind them.

At last count China had 11,566 LGFVs. According to the IMF, when they are factored in, government debt rises to about 70% of GDP. This is worrying for three reasons.

The first is the trajectory, with LGFV debts more than tripling over the past decade.

The second is their opacity. Banks and bond investors think they must be safe, but even government auditors struggle to get a full picture of what is owed and where the money is going.

Third, it is China’s poorer inland provinces that are most reliant on LGFVs. China International Capital Corp (CICC), a big domestic brokerage, has referred to them as a “grey rhino”: a risk that, unlike a “black-swan” event, is obvious but easily ignored.

The government, to be fair, does not have its eyes closed. It has been trying to limit LGFV borrowing since 2010. Regulators have also sought to ease financial constraints on local governments, most notably through a giant debt swap in which local governments exchanged trillions of yuan in LGFV bonds for official bonds charging lower interest.

But big risks remain. LGFVs are becoming less able to pay back their debts. Their operating incomes cover only about 40% of their obligations due within one year, according to CICC. For a normal company, that would spell trouble.

Moreover, local governments remain addicted to them. Stripping out the bond swap, LGFV borrowing rose at 20% annually over the past five years, far outpacing overall debt growth.

Last year China seemed to be getting serious about crimping off-balance-sheet borrowing. It wielded its most potent weapon: permitting defaults. On 15 occasions LGFVs failed to repay loans on schedule, according to Fitch, a ratings agency. That spooked markets. LGFVs’ interest rates went up, and their bond sales slowed.

The impact was palpable. Local governments had less cash to spend, and Xiangtan was one of the casualties. It was forced to halt work on a highway around the city, which now stops abruptly at hoardings plastered in yellowing propaganda posters.

A dirt track takes the place of an on-ramp. Zhou Juzhen, a retiree, has planted a small garden of chili peppers and green beans at its edge. “I wish the construction would resume,” she says. “It would be much more convenient living next to a big road.”

The slowdown in building has played out on a national level. Infrastructure investment was just 1.6% higher in May than a year earlier, a big comedown from the previous double-digit norm. Worried about slowing GDP growth, on June 10th the central government opened the door for provinces and cities to increase spending.

It urged them to issue special bonds for big projects such as modernising power grids. Many think local governments will again turn to a familiar friend. “Faith in LGFVs is seemingly on the rise again!” exclaimed analysts with ICBC, a major Chinese bank.

But the government may find that last year’s stringent debt-control campaign has made provinces and cities more reluctant to open their wallets. Local officials know that once growth stabilises, they are likely to face pressure to deleverage again, says Houze Song of the Paulson Institute, a think-tank in Chicago.

There is a more radical option: the central government could in effect fund LGFVs directly. China Development Bank, a giant state-owned lender, has started to offer long-term loans to LGFVs to replace their short-term debts. This is similar to the bond swap, but allows LGFVs to get cheaper funding without testing the market.

Yet there are obvious drawbacks. For one thing, it puts the central government on the hook for LGFV liabilities. And if the programme is rolled out nationwide, efforts to get them to operate more responsibly would come to naught. So far the government has reportedly tested swaps in a few places. Xiangtan is one, not least because the prefecture includes the birthplace of Mao Zedong. China’s leaders do not want to see defaults here, of all places.

At a river that bisects Xiangtan, giant pilings have been sunk to support a bridge. But the site has been abandoned, another victim of the local cash crunch. Fu Weijun, who works in a nearby steel mill, walks along its banks before his shift begins. It is just a matter of time before the bridge is completed, he says.

“Western countries change too often. We can stick to the same path, no matter what.” That confidence might be shaken in the coming years.

Source: The Economist
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:24 pm

china-s-factory-outlook-dimmed-again-in-june-ahead-of-g-20-truce
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:37 pm

«The Real Economic Growth Rate in China is Already Below 3 Percent»
https://themarket.ch/interview/the-real ... ent-ld.416
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:47 pm

Breakneck growth in China’s credit-card debt since 2012 raises worries about a potential bust, says ratings agency S&P
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-f ... 012-raises
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:46 pm

China Muslims: Xinjiang schools used to separate children from families
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48825090
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