China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - May 20)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:53 pm

Inside China's home to 10,000 stores selling fake bags and cases
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3gYCUpqmP0
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:39 pm

Life after tariffs
Trade war? China’s exporters have expanded their global market share
As America raises its walls, Chinese companies find new terrain

A YEAR AGO an economic forecasting unit in the Chinese government published an outlook for the coming year. The big worry, it concluded, was the external environment.

Shipments to America, China’s biggest customer, would suffer as the trade war dragged on. China had maxed out its exports to other big countries, and others were too small to make a difference.

So China’s boffins are, like many others, surprised by how things have gone. Exports to America are indeed down, by nearly 15% so far this year. But exports to the rest of the world have been much stronger (see chart).

China, it turns out, had more to sell to its big customers: exports to Europe are on track to surpass exports to America this year. Meanwhile exports to smaller markets in South-East Asia, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, have boomed.

According to data from CPB World Trade Monitor, China’s share of global exports has reached 11.9%, slightly higher than in July 2018, when the first American tariffs hit.

Sluggish imports—in part because of a domestic slowdown—mean the trade surplus is set to be about a quarter bigger in 2019 than in 2018.

One explanation for China’s resilient exports is the yuan’s 6% depreciation against the dollar since the trade war began. That has blunted the tariffs’ impact. China’s currency has also weakened against other major trading partners.

A second is goods routed through other countries to avoid tariffs. Some sent to South-East Asia have ended up in America. Vietnamese customs officials have stepped up checks of everything from seafood to aluminium to ensure that they are not relabelled Chinese goods.

Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics, a research firm, estimates that American tariffs have cut Chinese GDP growth by about 0.6 percentage points, but that trans-shipments through South-East Asia may have lifted it back up by 0.3 percentage points.

There is also a third, more positive explanation: Chinese companies are highly competitive. Once an assembly centre, China now makes more of the inputs that go into final goods. Its efforts in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors are well-known. But it is making lower-tech progress more broadly.

The Chinese light-industry council, representing toymakers, food firms and the like, estimates that its 100 most technologically advanced members invest 2.5% of revenues in research and development, high by international standards; it is pressing them to hit 3%.

The road ahead will not be easy for Chinese exporters. The longer American tariffs last, the more likely American buyers are to find alternatives. The fall in Chinese sales to America has accelerated recently.

On December 4th Chinese exporters of machinery and electronics met for their annual conference. The theme was “flourishing together along One Belt, One Road”, in line with the government’s policy of promoting economic ties with Asia, Africa and Europe.

In previous years that might have been politically astute positioning. Now it looks like a survival strategy.

Source: The Economist
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:34 pm

First made-in-China aircraft carrier, the Shandong, enters service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-sa8D4XQiM
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:20 pm

Students at top university in China sing together in rare protest after ‘freedom of thought’ cut from charter
https://mothership.sg/2019/12/news-chin ... t-protest/


Tesco halts production at Chinese factory over alleged 'forced' labour
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50883161


2019.12.21【文茜世界周報】大陸首艘國產山東艦航母 三亞軍港交付成軍
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jjh9_uG ... AU&index=5
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 27, 2019 7:59 am

Reform set as bond defaults soar

by Kevin Xu

China's onshore bond defaults have exceeded 130 billion yuan (HK$144.61 billion) so far this year, surpassing the previous annual high of 122 billion yuan reached in 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China has transferred 1.1 trillion yuan (HK$1.22 trillion) in state-owned capital to the country's social security funds, according to the State Council.

It plans to spend 800 billion yuan in railway investment, 1.8 trillion yuan in highway and waterway investment and 90 billion yuan in civil aviation investment in 2020, transport czar Li Xiaopeng said yesterday.


Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 1227&sid=2
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Dec 28, 2019 7:51 am

There’s a major banking crisis unfolding in China

The Chinese government isn’t exactly famous for its honesty and transparency.

So when the Chinese regulators are starting to openly report trouble in their banking system, it’s time to take notice.

According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)’s “2019 China Financial Stability Report,” 586 out of 4,379 Chinese lenders were officially deemed to be “high risk”.

But that overall figure, bad as it is, may be masking the true extent of the problem.

According to the same report, over one third of rural lenders are deemed to be “high risk.” One in three banks in rural China. Hmmm.

And this lack of confidence is beginning to cause bank runs.

Yingkou Bank in Liaoning Province, and Yichuan Rural Commercial Bank in Henan Province, both faced bank runs in early November.

In May, the government took over troubled Baoshang Bank in Inner Mongolia – the first such government intervention to nationalize a private Chinese financial institution in more than 20 years.

A joint bailout by three state-owned financial institutions was also organized for the Bank of Jinzhou in July.

And just recently, the government put together a consortium to bail out Hengfeng Bank in Shandong Province.

It was this latest bailout that put the issue of non-performing loans and bad debts in China’s banking system firmly back on our radar.

The Hengfeng bailout is particularly interesting because:

a) Hengfeng Bank has failed to file its financial statements since 2016; and,

b) The bank’s past two chairmen were each separately investigated and charged with corruption… the first in 2014, the second in 2017.

All told, the Hengfeng Bank bailout is $14 billion US dollars. That’s just for one small regional Chinese lender.

According to the regulator’s own report, there are another 585 institutions in addition to Hengfeng that are “high risk”. So it’s possible the size of this problem could easily go into the TRILLIONS of dollars.

The Chinese banking system at present completely dwarfs banking systems everywhere else in the world, including in the United States.

The total size of China’s banking system has now reached roughly $40 trillion. That’s more than TWICE the size of the US banking system, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

But perhaps even more importantly, China’s vast banking system is more than three times the size of its entire economy.

So if just a small percentage of the Chinese banking system requires a bailout, the knock-on economic effects will be several times greater.

The government is already telling us that a significant percentage of Chinese banks are ‘high risk’. And we’ve seen numerous instances of bailouts already.

But what we’ve seen thus far may just be the proverbial tip of the iceberg.

If just 5% of the Chinese banking system requires a bailout, for example, that’s the equivalent of nearly 20% of GDP.

20% of GDP is an impossible bailout for anyone, even China.

China remains an important engine of global growth. And any large-scale economic disruption due to a banking crisis in China is almost certain to tip the whole world into recession.

Source: Sovereign Man
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:17 pm

China’s new economy loses its sparkle, as hi-tech and modern industries fail to deliver on promise
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... and-modern
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:15 am

Seven trends that will define China in the 2020s

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... hina-2020s
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:35 am

China Corporate Debt Woes

Business tycoon and Alibaba founder Jack Ma recently offered an insight into the level of corporate debt in the mainland.

He said that he had received five calls in a single day from friends to borrow money last month, while also revealing that in one week, 10 friends were trying to sell their properties to get out of difficulties.

This shows that China's corporate bond problem is very serious because there are very few people who have access to Ma's private phone number in the mainland and even fewer whom Ma would be willing to accept phone calls from.

These must have been people of a certain stature who could pick up the phone and call Ma in the hope that the billionaire would reach out and help them.

So if what Ma said was true, then there must have been five super rich people in financial distress as well as ten tycoons who could save themselves but were also starting to get into trouble.

Source: The Standard
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:03 pm

Chinese province: Just 17 out of our 80m people now live in poverty
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51058339
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