China - Market Strategy 04 (Aug 18 - Jan 23)

Re: China - Market Direction 03 (Aug 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:08 am

Every time Chinese stocks are this cheap they spend the next year soaring, says AllianzGI boss

On the last three occasions the price-to-book ratio has been this low, A shares have produced gains averaging 55 per cent, says Andreas Utermann, CEO of AllianzGI

The relaxation of restrictions on foreign investment will also help the market bounce back, he says

The price-to-book ratio for the MSCI China A-share index has started the year at 1.54 times, close to its historic low of 1.47 times in 2014.


“The Chinese government has introduced a lot of counter-cyclical measures such as monetary easing and tax cuts to support economic growth,” he said.


The net buying of A shares by international investors through the two stock connect schemes last year was up 50 per cent to a record US$44.7 billion, according to a BNP Paribas report released earlier this month.

They accounted for 5 to 10 per cent of the daily turnover in 2018, compared with just 1 per cent at the beginning of 2017, the BNP report said.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-f ... -next-year
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:00 am

You thought 2018 was bad for China’s stock market? Profit warnings suggest worse may be yet to come

Preliminary announcements show 390 listed companies are set to report a combined loss of US$49 billion for 2018; total losses could be three times higher than a year earlier

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies ... t-warnings
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:07 pm

With 10-to-1 Leverage, Shadow Banks Fuel China's Stock Boom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:55 pm

癲炒A股
喪玩末日期權 一度升192
https://hk.finance.appledaily.com/finan ... 7/20621808


behappyalways wrote:With 10-to-1 Leverage, Shadow Banks Fuel China's Stock Boom
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:05 pm

not vested

ISHARES A50(2823)

Analysis:

FTSE China A50 Index is tracked by the ETF, in where the constituent stock of A50 Index was selected from the blue chips that are the top 50 largest market capitalization.

The stock with the largest weighting were Ping An Insurance ((601318.SH), China Merchants Bank (600036.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Industrial Bank (601166.SH) and China Vanke (000002.SZ).

As of 31 Jan 2019, the industry of the index were mainly Finance (61.2%), Consumer goods (21.58%) and Health care (9.21%).

On 1 Mar, MSCI will reveal whether to lift the inclusion factor of A share from 5% to 20%. If the inclusion factor was increased to 20% as expected, the capital from passive and active investment could reach USD 60-70 billion, presenting a significant support to A share market.

By then, the constituent stock of FTSE China A50 Index should be be nefited from it.

Strategy:
Buy-in Price: $13.50, Target Price: $16.50, Cut Loss Price: $12.00

Source: Phillips
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:06 pm

Watch China Inc.’s Insider Selling

Billions in cash from abroad won’t move the needle. Look instead at what company management is doing.

By Shuli Ren

Investors from abroad were net buyers of more than 120 billion yuan ($18 billion) of shares this year through Hong Kong’s Stock Connect.

China’s stock market can expect another $60 billion of buying, estimates Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Take a look at who owns China’s $6.4 trillion stock market. At 2.2 percent, foreigners’ sway is tiny. And while local retail investors are blamed for the 2015 stock-market frenzy, they hold only 20 percent. The majority of shares are still controlled by insiders: founders, management and parent holding companies.

Entrepreneurs are fleeing the country and curtailing their spending on equipment and machinery. The central bank’s credit disproportionately benefits state-backed firms. Nowadays, local government financing vehicles can issue bonds more cheaply than their private-sector peers. High-yield enterprises – real estate developers, for instance – still can’t raise new notes onshore.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... emium-asia
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:53 am

5 things traders are watching for as China’s power elite gathers at the Two Sessions

Hugely important decisions will be made that could impact China stocks

Traders say stocks that might be most affected are tied to consumption, autos, construction, health care and brokerages

by Louise Moon

“There is a myth in China that whenever big meetings happen, the market plunges”.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/a ... athers-two
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:55 am

China is the world’s most overheated stock market. So why are these top strategists calling it a buy?

A technical gauge has risen to the level last seen in the 2015 crash that wiped out US$5 trillion in market value

But this run ‘still has some gas left in the tank,’ respected forecaster says

by Zhang Shidong

Factors that could further drive up equities include a re-acceleration in money supply growth, policy support from top leaders, a pickup in the economy and the progress made in the China-US trade talk.

The 14-day relative strength index of the Shanghai Composite was at 83.6, well above the reading of 70 indicating stocks are set to fall.

Last time the gauge was that high in 2015, the Shanghai index fell by 30 per cent in the following seven months.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-bus ... -are-these
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:26 pm

Another Trillion Dollars Could Soon Be Headed into These Stocks

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

China has authorized one of its two main pension funds to invest up to 40% of its assets in stocks. But this fund has only invested about half that amount so far. It’s a similar story with the other pension fund.

Research firm KPMG predicts China’s two main pension funds will have more than $3 trillion in assets by 2025. If they invest just one-third of that money in the stock market, that’s $1 trillion headed into stocks by 2025.


Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2019/03/22/ ... se-stocks/
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Re: China - Market Direction 04 (Aug 18 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:19 am

not vested

Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF ( CHIQ )

Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF is a sector ETF targeting for china consumer discretionary sector, with market cap of approximately USD 157.99 million and expense ratio of 0.65%.

The Fund tracks the MSCI China Consumer Discretionary 10/50 Index, which offers exposure to Chinese large- and mid-cap consumer discretionary companies including A,B, H shares and ADR.

In China, rising middle class drives secular transformation to consumption-based economy. Investments` share in GDP is slipping below 30% while consumption contributed near 60% of GDP.
Moreover, China is a home to massive e-commerce market.

For example, China's Singles` Day (November 11) is the biggest retail event on the planet. Alibaba Group had double the sales volume than that of the US e-commence sector on Black Friday and Cyber Monday in total.

Despite the concern of slowdown China's GDP growth, Chinese authorities take a proactive approach to loosen its monetary policy and launch its personal income tax reduction policy.

In 2019, estimated 145 million Chinese will benefit from paying 70% less income tax, which can boost domestic consumer spending power. Therefore, investors can capitalize the growth of China retail market via CHIQ! .

Recommend to buy at $17, target price $24.5, cut loss if drop below $16.

Source: Phillips
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