HK - Market Strategy 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 25)

Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:44 pm

not vested

<Research Report>M Stanley Cuts HSI Year-end Target to 30,350; 37,600 for Bull Case

Morgan Stanley, in its Asia EM Equity Strategy report, expressed that market peers had forecast on Asia Pacific stock market profit at higher level and that it decided to lower target forecast on Asia Pacific market index targets.

Under base case, Morgan Stanley targeted HSI at 30,350 (12.7x to target forward P/E at Dec-18), trimmed from 31,500.

For bull case, the research house kept the HSI target at 37,600 (13.5x to target forward P/E at Dec-18).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
Web Site: www.aastocks.c
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:03 pm

Hong Kong Regulator Concerned on Nine-Fold Rise in Margin Loans

by Benjamin Robertson

Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission is consulting brokers about risks stemming from a rapid run up in margin lending.

Outstanding margin loans -- borrowing against pledged stock -- hit HK$206 billion ($26.3 billion) at the end of 2017, a nine-fold increase since 2006, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Julia Leung told reporters on Monday.

The regulator is worried such lending poses a risk given that many of the firms involved are illiquid and it may take a while for brokers to recover their money in case of a liquidation, Leung said.

“In a forced liquidation situation if it is illiquid, it means it takes several months if not years to complete,” said Leung. “The risk to the broker is not small.”

Share pledges by firms’ major shareholders contributed to the increase in margin loans, she said. These are companies listed on the city’s small cap exchange, or companies outside Hang Seng indexes, said Leung.

Leung cited the sudden price drop at dozens of firms last June as an example of the dangers posed to brokers who lend against volatile small caps.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kon ... 50671.html
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:43 pm

<Research Report>M Stanley: PRC, HK Stocks to Avoid in Bear Mkt (Table)

CHINA COAL (01898.HK)
CHALCO (02600.HK)
LONGFOR PPT (00960.HK)
SHIMAO PROPERTY (00813.HK)
AGILE GROUP (03383.HK)
RiseSun (002146.SZ)
CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK)
KWG PROPERTY (01813.HK)
CHINA AOYUAN (03883.HK)
Q TECH (01478.HK)
KUNLUN ENERGY (00135.HK)
YANZHOU COAL (01171.HK)
WH GROUP (00288.HK)
ND PAPER (02689.HK)
LEE & MAN PAPER (02314.HK)
CHINARES PHARMA (03320.HK)
HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK)
KERRY PPT (00683.HK)
AGILE GROUP (03383.HK)
R&F PROPERTIES (02777.HK)
BYD ELECTRONIC (00285.HK)
CHINA MER PORT (00144.HK)
SA (601021.SH)
AIR CHINA (00753.HK)
SHENZHEN INT'L (00152.HK)
CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK)
CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK)
COSCO SHIP PORT (01199.HK)
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT.SI)
BEIJING AIRPORT (00694.HK)
COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK)
ENN ENERGY (02688.HK)
CHINA RES POWER (00836.HK)

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:21 am

Where is the bottom of the stock market?

by Ivan Tong

Hong Kong's stock exchange has been witnessing a strange phenomenon of late. Despite market conditions being weak with shrinking turnovers, the IPO market has been buzzing with activity.

The gongs at the bourse - which are used at listing ceremonies to mark the beginning of a company's trading - have not stopped ringing.

Fortunately, Hong Kong's stock market is more mature than its counterparts on the mainland. If this had to happen in the A-shares market, investors would definitely cry foul and ask regulators to put a halt to new listings.

My question this time is: Where is the bottom?

As there is no crystal ball for the market, no one can tell when Hong Kong stocks will hit the bottom. However, there still are some key indicators we need to pay attention to.

The most important indicator, of course, should be the yuan's movement.

The total turnover of Hong Kong stocks dropped to 70 billion in recent days, making local equities more prone to be affected by A-shares. However, A-shares almost track the yuan's exchange rate.

For instance, though the US dollar retreated last night after being boosted by the US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's speech, the yuan still dropped below 6.78, stopping the rising trend of stocks in Hong Kong and China.

The depreciation of the yuan raises many fears. If China's government is not involved in this - or if they did not take advantage of the currency to fight the trade war - then it becomes all the more worrying, as it would mean that the yuan's slump is tied to capital flow.

If the slump deepens, there will be more capital outflow and it will be much more difficult to break this vicious circle in the future.

Fortunately, the global stock markets are still stable. The A-shares loss is the second worst after Turkish shares, and we have opportunity to find the short-term bottom.

Hong Kong stocks valuation has become more attractive. With companies due to post their results shortly, the Hang Seng Index may find its real support level if the results indicate good performance in the first half.

Though trading volumes have been low in recent days, there are still points worth looking at. Xiaomi (1810) was at first underestimated but then surprised us by setting new highs several times, until a sharp correction yesterday. It not only showed speculation but also unmatched transaction volumes.

The World Cup has come to an end, but this has not helped the stock market either, and the situation might not improve until company results start to flow in.

Therefore, I suggest that shareholders be patient instead of overly pessimistic.

Source: The Standard
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:50 pm

These Stocks Are Incredibly Cheap Right Now

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Source: DailyWealth.com

http://dailytradealert.com/2018/08/31/t ... ght-now-2/
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:27 pm

<Research Report>M Stanley Raises HSI/ HSCEI Target to 28,500/ 11,360 for 2019

Morgan Stanley opined in its 2019 Asia EM Equity Outlook report that Value will continually outrun Growth as a global equities theme. Hence, the broker retained the Chinese market at Equalweight.

However, the broker is watching for potential signals to upgrade Chinese market's rating, such as a pause in Sino-US trade skirmish and improvement in private economy and consumption.

Morgan Stanley hiked the 2019 Hang Seng Index target under base case from 25,900 to 28,500, expecting top-down basic EPS forecast to burgeon 10.3% next year.

Further, the 2019 Hang Seng China Enterprises Index target was lifted from 9,990 to 11,360, with estimated top-down basic EPS increment of 9.5%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 04, 2018 7:27 am

Don’t read too much into the Hang Seng Index’s remarkable November comeback

Nicholas Spiro says Hong Kong’s benchmark index has made a dramatic recovery, ahead of a cooling-off period in the trade war. But uncertainties loom in both the US and Chinese economies, to which the index is tightly linked

Although the Chinese and US presidents declared a ceasefire at a meeting last Saturday, following the G20 summit in Argentina, the issues that gave rise to the conflict remain unresolved.

A significant part of November’s rally stems from the dramatic recovery in the shares of Tencent Holdings, the Chinese internet giant that is Hong Kong’s largest listed company with a 9 per cent weighting in the index.

Mainland investors have sold November’s rally, dumping about US$750 million of the city’s stocks via trading links at the end of last month.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2 ... r-comeback
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Dec 15, 2018 7:55 pm

中央政治局會議吹淡風
中港股市應聲挫
https://hk.finance.appledaily.com/finan ... 5/20569396
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Re: HK - Market Direction 03 (Dec 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:32 am

Citibank thinks Hong Kong stocks can claw their way back from painful slide. Here’s how

Citibank forecasts a near-20 per cent rise in the Hang Seng this year
Hong Kong benchmark index went into bear market on September 10

The prediction of a near-20 per cent rebound is significantly higher than other forecasts.

Deutsche Bank predicted a 10 per cent rise and Morgan Stanley forecast a 13.4 per cent gain to 28,500 for the Hang Seng.

MSCI Hong Kong Index could rise to 15,199 in 2019 according to Goldman Sachs, a 6 per cent recovery based on Monday’s close.


MSCI plans to increase the weighting of the A-shares on relevant indices from 5 per cent to 20 per cent in 2019, pending consultation.


Citbank said investors should look for Macau gambling as well as Hong Kong commercial real estate to outperform.


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2 ... nful-slide
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