HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Jun 24)

Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:18 am

<Research Report>Deutsche: Accelerated Farmland Conversion May Raise Developers' NAVs by 6-58% Per Share

Deutsche Bank, in its report, said Hong Kong property stocks surged on the back of possible acceleration of farmland conversion.

The broker believed more information will be released in the Policy Address (to be announced in October).

The broker believed acceleration of farmland conversion can raise the NAV of property stocks, but the policy will also lead to higher supply and add downward pressure to the home prices.

Overall, the broker still believed that acceleration of farmland conversion can raise property stocks' NAV by 6-58% potentially.

The report said HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) will benefit most (with 44.9 million sq.ft. farmland), followed by SHK PPT (00016.HK), NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) and CK PROPERTY (01113.HK).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:33 pm

Hong Kong home prices rise for 17th straight month in August

Hong Kong home prices, already the world’s most expensive, has have surged 25 per cent since March, 2016.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong- ... hkma-warns
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:46 am

Can faster conversion of farmland provide a solution to Hong Kong’s housing problem?

Converting farmland to residential seen as feasible solution for a government starter home scheme in partnership with private developers

A total of 100 million square feet of farmland, with potential to supply 180,000 units with an average size of 700 square feet each, are owned by four major developers who bought the land starting in the 1970s for an average of only a few hundred Hong Kong dollars per square foot, ac


The four key farmland holders are Henderson Land Development, Sun Hung Kai Properties, New World Development and Cheung Kong Property (Holdings), which was renamed CK Asset Holdings on September 15.


“This potential supply represents about eight to nine years of housing demand in Hong Kong and could solve the housing problem if the government speeds up the approval process of farmland conversion,”


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong- ... hong-kongs
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:22 am

HK Properies - Correction in 1H 2018 ?
i) Price has surged almost 370% from 2003 to Sep 2015
ii) 18,000 new units completed in 2016.
iii) 34,000 flats in pipeline for 2017; 98,000 units in next 3-4 years (up 40%)
iv) About 7600 people left HK in 2016 vs 7000 in 2015
v) Margins have decreased to 25% from 40%
vi) DB: Prices to drop 11% in 2017
vii) CS: Prices to drop 22% by end 2018
viii) Bocom: Prices to drop 20%-30% by end 2017
ix) Citi: Prices to drop 20% in 2H 2017
x) DB: Prices to drop by 50% in 10 years, on ageing population and ample supply
xi) UOBKH: Demand 21,000 pa; Supply 18,000 pa for 2017-19
xii) Andy Xie: HK properties to drop for 20 years
xiii} Colliers: Prices to drop 5% in 2H 2017
xiv) Prices up 8.5% since Jan 2017 and were 21.6% higher y-o-y in June 2017
xv) Nov 2016 ABSD - Foreigners: 15% to 30%; Locals (Non 1st Time): 8% to 15%
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:53 am

Don't underestimate the amount of property loans

by ANDREW WONG WAI-HONG

Recently some articles have had comments that although China's house prices are a bubble, it will not burst.

Before we start to discuss this question, I want to discuss another more familiar situation in the market -- Hong Kong.

According to the data analysis of house prices to income ratio, the most expensive cities for the first five months in terms of global house prices are Beijing, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hanoi, in that order.

China has cities in the first four places. Of course, their backgrounds, systems and policies are different, while the source of funds at the same time is likely to be similar, which means the potential problems in the housing market in Hong Kong are also the same for mainland cities.

According to data of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority obtained from 20 major banks, there are a total of 520,000 cases of outstanding residential mortgage loans, with about 13,000 involving multiple mortgages. That's 2.5 percent of the total.

The outstanding mortgage balance involved is 1.18 trillion yuan, or an average of 2.3 million yuan in each case.

The above number seems not too serious, but has it ever occurred to you that the HKMA may not have included the number of loan companies involved as the loans developers give buyers might not be included?

Though as an international financial center Hong Kong's financial system is sound, there are still some loopholes in the regulations. Those finance companies are not under HKMA regulation.

Instead, it is according to the regulations of the creditor. The companies registry is responsible for processing the moneylender license application, at the same time enforced by the police force.

So it is difficult for the HKMA to have precise data on the housing loans of finance companies.

Of course, the amount of capital that financial companies have is much less than the major banks in Hong Kong. But the amount of lending still cannot be underestimated.

Once property prices fluctuate, for those through financial company's mortgage lending the default risk is very high. And the bigger problem is that will trigger a domino effect.

So the local property market still faces the danger of falling sharply, as in 1997 to 1998. Why? I'll talk to you next week.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 1106&sid=2
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:47 pm

Hong Kong's Unshakable Property Faith
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... erty-faith
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:39 am

Vacancy tax warned as double-edged sword

by Samantha Wong

A vacancy tax on first-hand properties might cool raging hot prices in Hong Kong, as developers would launch more of their inventories for sale, consultants said.

However, they also warned that developers might end up passing on the additional cost to buyers, if the tax was to be implemented.

The number of new units lying vacant reached 9,000 between last December and March this year, according to data from the Transport and Housing Bureau.

"A vacant tax on new properties would in theory increase competition in the market and put downward pressure on prices," said Ingrid Cheh, associate director of research department at Jones Lang LaSalle.

However, Cheh said developers may in turn funnel the additional costs to buyers, and the tax as such may not be an effective way to cool the market in the long run.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor had said last month that a vacancy tax would help release residential units into the market and increase supply.

Latest data from Centaline Property showed there were around 8,000 unsold units owned by five major developers in the first quarter.

Of these, Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) had the most number of unsold units at 3,100 apartments, followed by Wheelock Properties with 2,100 flats, and Henderson Land (0012) with 1,700 flats.

There are around 1,000 flats in two of SHKP's projects - Cullinan West in Sham Shui Po and Grand Yoho in Yuen Long - which are yet to be sold while its latest luxury project, Victoria Harbour in North Point, has sold only 21 of 355 apartments since its launch last November.

Among other major developers New World Development (0017) has around 700 unsold flats, while CK Asset Holdings (1113) has 360 flats.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0611&sid=2
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:09 am

Home prices tipped to climb 15pc

by Jimmy Ding

Residential property prices are expected to rise 15 percent for the whole of 2018, according to Colliers International.

Jones Lang LaSalle puts the year-on-year increase at between 10 and 15 percent for the whole year compared to 2017.

JLL managing director Joseph Tsang said yesterday that should the police academy in Wong Chuk Hang be moved to the Greater Bay Area, 13,000 housing units could be built there.

He also said more nano flats will be built by developers after the government's introduction of a vacancy tax in order to offset higher costs.

The JLL's report found the average size of new flats has already decreased by about 40 percent over the past six years.

JLL expects home prices to climb another 7 percent in the second half - slowing down after an 8.6 percent growth rate in the first six months over the previous year.

Meanwhile, Colliers International research showed that total investment in all types of property hit HK$130.26 billion for the first half - the highest amount in Asia.

JLL said the total property investment volume soared 91.4 percent year on year in the first six months - the best first-half performance in a decade.

However, Colliers cautioned that price growth could slow down in the second half due to rising capital costs and continuous deleveraging in the mainland.

Vincent Cheung, deputy managing director of Colliers International Asia, said Hong Kong has an insufficient supply of subsidized housing, and called on the SAR to provide more affordable housing.

He proposed the ratio between private homes and subsidized housing should be three to seven.

"Hong Kong has a shortage of 582,880 units of subsidized housing, which would occupy around 270 hectares," he said.

JLL's Tsang doubts whether the vacancy tax will have a strong impact on cooling down the local property market, and said the government should instead focus on providing more brownfield sites to build more housing.

He said there are 760 hectares of smaller and scattered clusters of brownfield sites that can be used to boost land supply rather than relying on land reclamation.

"Using brownfield sites will be faster and more effective than land reclamation," Tsang said, adding that the land reclamation process would take at least 20 years.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0711&sid=2
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:22 am

Three makes a trend, as CLSA becomes third bank to forecast Hong Kong’s home prices to drop

Headwinds that triggered the three corrections in the city’s home prices from 2005 to 2016 are now all in play, analyst says

Hong Kong home prices will drop 15 per cent over the next 12 months, investment bank CLSA said.

“Hong Kong’s property market is having its worst combination of fundamentals in 15 years, with rising interest rates, a slowing economy and depreciating yuan”.

Hong Kong’s housing prices have risen for 27 straight months.

CLSA joined Citibank and UBS in predicting a sharp downturn, saying the city faces “the worst headwind in 15 years”.


Buyers are increasingly turning to old public rental housing flats, where prices have gone up by 70 per cent to 90 per cent, reaching as much as HK$6 million apiece”.

“Also, some of the demand has been supported by parents re-mortgaging to finance a down payment for children, and by mainland Chinese coming to work in Hong Kong.”


Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2 ... tment-bank
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 18)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:24 pm

Developers Offering Free Holidays in Bid to Shift Hong Kong Property
https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/d ... g-property
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