by winston » Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:28 pm
Hong Kong’s Property Market Already Bottomed?
By Shuli Ren
Hong Kong property stocks have gone up around 10% this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has been flat. This is because investors think Hong Kong’s property down market may have already bottomed in March.
Secondary transaction volume tends to be a leading indicator of residential properties.
For the past 20 weeks, real estate agent Midland 35-estate’s weekly volume stood at an average level of around 70 deals per week, a significant improvement from an average of only 34 deals between last August to February. Now the transaction volume is back to the average level seen in early 2013.
“We believe the major reason for a continuous volume and price recovery is a huge pent-up demand, which accumulated during the correction period from Aug 2015 to March 2016,” noted Citi Research‘s Ken Yeung, who believe Hong Kong’s property market already hit the bottom in March.
Yeung thinks Hong Kong’s home prices can rise 8% in the second-half this year. In the second-quarter, home prices already rose by around 2%.
Talking about lower yields for longer. Hong Kong’s housing has become a lot more affordable as mortgage rates are held low. The bank’s affordability index has fallen to 38% in the last year, along with the 12% drop in home prices. A year ago, this index stood at 43.7%.
So which developers should we buy? Morgan Stanley likes Sun Hung Kai Properties (16.Hong Kong), because it has 30% market share, its rental growth is higher than others and it is growing its dividends nicely.
The bank also likes Sino Land (83.Hong Kong), because it is cheap, trading at only 0.5 times book.
Developers propelled the Hang Seng Index 0.8% higher today.
Source: Barron's Asia
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