HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Jun 24)

Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:35 am

Property bubble in Hong Kong will explode

Independent economist Andy Xie warned that the property bubble in Hong Kong will explode and the city may have to face recession for as long as 20 years.

He successfully predicted the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98 but he also asked people to sell their China properties many years ago.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:35 am

Property bubble in Hong Kong will explode

Independent economist Andy Xie warned that the property bubble in Hong Kong will explode and the city may have to face recession for as long as 20 years.

He successfully predicted the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98 but he also asked people to sell their China properties many years ago.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:56 am

Hong Kong home prices to fall in the second half as demand softens

Colliers: A healthy 5-per cent adjustment in the second half of the year would be a good time for self-use buyers to enter the market


Citibank predicted that home prices would fall by 20 per cent in the second half of the year


“Coupled with the new primary supply of close to 24,000 units (ready for sale) in the second half of the year, property prices in the second half of the year will be under pressure, down 20 per cent.”


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong- ... nd-softens
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:30 am

Fear of property market crash looms in Hong Kong

The city has experienced a buying spree for nearly a year, pushing home prices up 23 percent.
The last time a similar frenzy happened in 1997 and the market crashed soon after.

Source: Al Jazeera

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/news/201 ... 07888.html
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:39 am

Will Hong Kong’s record supply of 98,000 new homes cool the scorching property market?

Of the 98,000 units of new supply over the next three to four years, 29,000 are from government land sales where construction may begin at anytime;

61,000 have not been offered for presale and are still under construction, and 8,000 are unsold flats in completed projects, data from the Transport and Housing Bureau showed on Friday.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong- ... ikely-cool
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:16 pm

Last November, the Hong Kong government doubled the stamp duty for foreigners from 15% to 30%, and increased it from 8% to 15% for local individuals who are not first-time buyers.

Housing prices have been 8.5% since January, and were 21.6% higher y-o-y in June.

Source: The Edge Properties
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:48 am

In the past two trading days, there was an excuse to buy local developers for two reasons

First, it is likely that less China developers will bid for sites in Hong Kong land auctions, enabling local developers to buy plots at more reasonable prices.

And second, the government may release agricultural land as it aims to build cheaper homes for young people.

Share prices of local developers will keep rising until Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor's policy address in October.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:06 am

<Research Report>Citi: Mkt Overvalues Farmland Conversion Impact on Developers' NAV; Expects Added Value Below 1% p.a.

In its report, Citigroup said market expectation was high for the impact of accelerated farmland conversion.

The research house shared the same view with consensus that it will pose positive impact on Hong Kong property developers for faster profit taking from land resources but said market expectation on the scale and progress for farmland conversion as well as NAVs appreciation of developers was too high.

The research house expected the NAVs increase to be less than 1% for developers, of which HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) and NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) were 0.9%; CK PROPERTY (01113.HK) at 0.6%; and SHK PPT (00016.HK) at 0.4%.

Citigroup preferred NEW WORLD DEV and SHK PPT, mainly due to its lower valuation.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:10 am

<Research Report>C Suisse: Starter Homes Pose Negative Impact on Developers in Long Term; CK PROPERTY Looks Defensive

Credit Suisse, in its report, said Hong Kong government planned to introduce starter homes.

If home ownership scheme (HOS) continues at the same time, subsidised housing will benefit around 85% households in Hong Kong.

Based on the affordability ratio of 40% and considering the higher mortgage loan rate in the future, Credit Suisse estimated the price of starter homes to be 23%-45% below the price of private residential flats currently.

The impact on developers will depend on the price level, restrictions on transactions, quantity and sustainability of the plan.

Credit Suisse believed that the starter homes plan will be negative to developers in the long term.

Developers with farmland in New Territories or lower exposure in small flats will be less affected.

CK PROPERTY (01113.HK) looks more defensive to Credit Suisse, thus rated Outperform with target price of $75.3, while HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) is the most sensitive to farmland conversion policy, thus rated Underperform with target price of $41.8.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: HK - Housing 04 (Apr 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:14 am

<Research Report>Macquarie Expects Carrie Lam's Home Policy to Shift Focus to Supply in Next 5 Years; No Need 'Spicy' Measures if Worked

Macquarie, in its report, said Chief Executive Carrie Lam will shift the housing policy focus to supply from demand management in the next five years as history proved curbing housing prices was rather difficult amid low rate environment and most people still could not afford the property prices even if the increase slowed down.

The research house opined that the government will prefer adding new class of subsidized housing.

In Macquarie's view, the above measure was healthy to the market. The research house expected the government will not loose the "spicy" measures in short term but it is not necessary to implement heavier measures if Lam's policy works.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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