Re: Singapore - Housing 17 (Feb 16 - Dec 18)
Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:16 am
Singapore Residential Sector: A first dip since 2Q17
URA’s flash estimate for the private residential property price index showed a slight decline of 0.1% QoQ for 4Q18. This was the first sequential dip since 2Q17.
For 2018, private home prices increased 7.9%, and this was a tad shy of our 8%-10% full-year forecast.
We remain largely cautious on the near-term outlook of the Singapore residential sector, and had previously alluded on potential negative drivers such as moderating economic growth and continued impact from the property cooling measures, coupled with risks from an expected bumper crop of new launches in 1H19.
One silver lining would be the moderation in the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for 1H19.
We maintain our -3% to +2% private residential price growth projection for 2019, as well as our forecast for 10k-12k private sales transactions.
Maintain NEUTRAL on the Singapore residential sector, with our preferred sector picks remaining as UOL [BUY; FV: S$8.41] and CapitaLand (CAPL SP) [BUY; FV: S$3.96].
Source: OCBC
URA’s flash estimate for the private residential property price index showed a slight decline of 0.1% QoQ for 4Q18. This was the first sequential dip since 2Q17.
For 2018, private home prices increased 7.9%, and this was a tad shy of our 8%-10% full-year forecast.
We remain largely cautious on the near-term outlook of the Singapore residential sector, and had previously alluded on potential negative drivers such as moderating economic growth and continued impact from the property cooling measures, coupled with risks from an expected bumper crop of new launches in 1H19.
One silver lining would be the moderation in the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for 1H19.
We maintain our -3% to +2% private residential price growth projection for 2019, as well as our forecast for 10k-12k private sales transactions.
Maintain NEUTRAL on the Singapore residential sector, with our preferred sector picks remaining as UOL [BUY; FV: S$8.41] and CapitaLand (CAPL SP) [BUY; FV: S$3.96].
Source: OCBC