Singapore - Market Direction 11 (Nov 14 - Dec 19)

Singapore - Market Direction 11 (Nov 14 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Nov 04, 2014 5:55 pm

US trend still uncertain despite huge rally

3rd November: US markets rebounded sharply last week, cancelling the bearish target of 1,790 for the S&P500 and seeing the Nasdaq making a new recent high.

Plenty of resistances approaching. Let's keep an eye on them. The trend is still bullish but uncertain.

The rest of the world will wait with bated breath.

http://www.asiachart.com/update3N.html
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 10 (Sep 12 - Dec 14)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Nov 10, 2014 4:04 pm

US shows new bullish channel


10th November: The US has turned bullish. The tops are cancelled for all indexes. A new bullish channel has emerged. But resistance is nearby. A few danger signals still with oil and the hi/lo chart is making a bearish divergence. Japan is looking bullish. Thailand and India are looking bullish.
http://www.asiachart.com/update10N.html
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 10 (Sep 12 - Dec 14)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:22 pm

Shanghai reverses - regional trend should benefit


17th November: US indexes are all facing resistance. After the biggest rally in so many years one would expect a bit of a breather. But the big news is Shanghai, which broken out of a bottom, indicating that the five-year bear trend has ended. We can expect a bullish trend for China for the next year or three. This is, no doubt, bullish for the region and the global trend.
Thailand is still looking bullish. With an improvement in the global trend we might expect a little action soon.
http://www.asiachart.com/update17N.html
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 10 (Sep 12 - Dec 14)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:04 pm

Region should benefit from expected China and Japan market boom in 2015


24th November: US indexes are approaching resistance, raising a big question mark about the next stage of the recent super-rally, the fastest and most breath-taking rally of the last few years. But the big hopes for 2015 are China and Japan. Both have made long term bottoms. In the case of Japan, volume is excellent and highly persuasive of a reversal of the three-decade down trend. If these two markets boom next year, as I expect, the region should benefit.

http://www.asiachart.com/update24N.html
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 10 (Sep 12 - Dec 14)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:30 pm

Stability in yield plays

Sterling performance from Banks enliven an otherwise lethargic market

Sentiment in the oil and gas sector will remain fragile till we see stability in oil prices. BUY SMRT, beneficiary of lower oil prices.

China’s interest rates cut an inflexion point for China property plays – Buy Capitaland.

Seek stability in solid yield plays; OCBC, Sheng Siong, SPOST, SingTel and China Merchants Holdings

Source: DBS
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 10 (Sep 12 - Dec 14)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 27, 2014 5:26 pm

Singapore Strategy: 3Q14 Report Card – Lacking Beats

Only 12% of results exceeded expectations as cost pressures were apparent in the declining EBITDA margins.

Banks shone but aviation services disappointed.

We remain selective on the Singapore market with a year-end target of 3,400 for the FSSTI. The 3Q14 reporting season continued to be lacklustre with only 12% of the results ahead of our expectations (vs 14% in 2Q14).

Interestingly, the ratio of above/below expectations was 43% in 3Q14 and one of the lowest since 2Q12. Following the results, we amended our market EPS growth to 5.6% (previously 5.4%) for 2014 and 7.9% (previously 8.7%) for 2015.

Slight cut in 2015 earnings forecast. After the results season, we amended our market EPS growth to 5.6% (previously 5.4%) for 2014 and 7.9% (previously 8.7%) for 2015.

The change in 2015 forecast largely reflects the cut in our earnings estimates in the shipyard and oil services sectors.

Selective pickings on pull-backs. We remain selective, given external uncertainties and limited earnings visibility in 2015.

We favour DBS, Keppel Corp, CapitaLand, Suntec REIT, CCT, SingTel, First Resources, ComfortDelGro and Raffles Medical.

Within the mid-cap space, we like Silverlake, Pacific Radiance and Riverstone.

Key SELLs include IHH and Tigerair.

Source: UOBKH
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 10 (Sep 12 - Dec 14)

Postby winston » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:57 am

Outlook 2015

Modest GDP growth outlook, lower core CPI

We expect Singapore to post moderate GDP growth of 2.5% in 2015, alongside a mild acceleration in global growth to 3.5%. UBS economists expect SIBOR to rise to 1.4%, in tandem with an expected Fed rate hike to 1.25%.

We forecast core CPI to decline to 1.5% on lower commodity prices, weaker growth and a slacker labour market. We expect an end-2015 US$/S$ of 1.32.


Key investment themes for 2015

1) Impact from rising interest rates: our bottom-up analysis suggests a limited impact on corporate profitability, as most companies covered by UBS have locked in a significant proportion of debt at fixed rates and staggered debt maturities.

On banks, we think a comparison to 2000-02 is instructive, as banks were also at the start of the provisions cycle in a choppy growth environment. Bank earnings estimates weathered the start of higher provisions relatively well, but turned markedly weaker in the second year. We expect bank share prices to stay firm in H115, but think they could be vulnerable in H215.

2) The government could ease property cooling measures in H215, serving as a catalyst for developers, which are trading at an average 30-35% discount to RNAV.

3) Weak oil prices: we believe order book, margin and earnings sustainability concerns will remain overhangs on the offshore shipyards through most of 2015.


Our stock preferences

Our top picks are: CapitaLand, CapitaRetail China Trust, Global Logistic Properties, OCBC, Singapore Telecom, SMRT, UOL, Wilmar International
and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.

Muted FSSTI outlook: 4% growth in 2015E

We set a 2015 target of 3,480 for the FSSTI, and think performance is likely to be stronger in H115 than H215. While we expect net profit growth to
be modest in 2015, valuations are not stretched, in our view. We forecast 9.1% EPS growth for UBS covered stocks in 2015.

Source: UBS
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 11 (Nov 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:50 am

Singapore Strategy: Greater Need for Stock Picking in 2015

As developed markets rallied in 2014, Singapore’s STI gains of 4% YTD appears feeble compared to >20% gains for several key markets. However, this is still remarkable on the back of a prolonged 5-year upcycle.

Heading into 2015, the global economic outlook is softer and this is likely to generate some uncertainty for corporate earnings and growth outlook.

While risks cannot be completely eliminated, some calculated ones are acceptable and is the new norm going forward. At current levels, the STI is currently trading at 13.3x earnings, 1.2x book and with an average dividend yield of 3.5% for FY15. We deem this as reasonable against historical averages.

Our 2015 stock picks include CapitaMall Trust, ComfortDelgro, DBS, Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), Hotel Properties, Keppel Corp, Keppel Land, Sheng Siong, Starhill Global Trust, Singapore Post, SingTel and Wheelock.


Source: OCBC
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 11 (Nov 14 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:21 pm

Themes for 2015. Investment themes we favour include:

a) winners and losers of higher interest rates,
b) solid stocks that are oversold,
c) ASEAN Economic Community/ASEA Open Skies beneficiaries, and
d) regulatory changes.

Large-cap BUYs include CCT, CapitaLand, DBS, First Resources, Keppel Land, OCBC, Sembcorp Industries and SingTel.

Mid-cap picks include Bumitama, CD REIT, Ezion, Pacific Radiance, Raffles Medical, Riverstone and Silverlake.

Key SELLs include SIAEC and IHH.

Source: UOBKH
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Re: Singapore - Market Direction 11 (Nov 14 - Dec 15)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Dec 09, 2014 9:15 am

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