Asia - Economic Data & News

Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby ishak » Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:04 pm

Asian market fallout set to get far worse
Property, stocks will be hit bad as foreign capital is pulled: symposium speakers

BT, 29 Aug 2008

FALLOUT in Asian financial markets and institutions from the sub-prime crisis could become more serious now as foreign capital, from the US and other leading markets, is withdrawn, speakers at a symposium predicted yesterday. Asian property markets - in China and Vietnam especially - are likely to be hit hard while stock markets could take a battering, along with banks and other financial institutions, they suggested.

'There may be a sudden shift in capital flows as a result of fallout from the sub-prime crisis,' warned South Korea's former commerce minister Duck Koo Chung at the conference organised by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and the North East Asia Research Foundation (NEAR).

'Coming weeks will be crucial' in this regard, Mr Chung later told BT.

ADBI dean Masahiro Kawai, who told the conference that 'global financial turmoil may continue longer than hoped for', suggested to BT that a flight from Asian property market investment by banks, investment funds and various stock market vehicles could damage these institutions as the property boom unwinds.

The warnings came as a sobering counter to the widely held view that Asian markets and institutions are likely to escape relatively unscathed from the sub-prime credit crunch that has wrought havoc upon major investment banks and others in the US and Europe. The theory of a 'decoupling' of Asian economies from outside problems has similarly been shattered by recent events.

Recent weeks have seen the collapse of a series of property development firms in Japan as US and other investors pulled funds from them. The most recent collapse - developer Urban Corp - marked Japan's biggest corporate bankruptcy this year and the implication of yesterday's warning at the conference was that firms elsewhere in Asia could be facing a similar fate.

Mr Chung told BT that property markets in China and Vietnam are especially vulnerable, while South Korea's property market is also facing problems along with those of other East Asian economies. 'There will be another round of credit crisis in developing economies', as money is 'pulled', he said. Foreign direct investment as well as portfolio investment in many Asian economies has been directed into property, added Mr Chung, who is now chairman of NEAR.

The cause of the US dollar's strength in recent weeks has been partly to do with the repatriation of investment funds from overseas, and this process could accelerate now as a fresh credit crunch threatens, in spite of injections of financial liquidity by the US Federal Reserve, Mr Chung commented. 'This will lead to a further correction in asset markets' in Asia and elsewhere, he suggested.

'We have been planting the seeds of the current crisis for many years,' said Mr Chung, who noted that Asia had supplied much of the financial liquidity that fed asset bubbles in the US and elsewhere. Now that US credit markets have seized up, the Fed is having to pump liquidity but this 'can only jeopardise the anchor position of the dollar' in global financial markets.

Recent Fed actions 'imply an expectation of continuing stress in financial markets', and meanwhile, economic slowdown has hit both Japan and Europe, Mr Kawai noted at the conference.
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:18 pm

Slowdown in car sales in China and India threatens global market
By Chang-Ran Kim ReutersPublished: September 1, 2008

TOKYO: A sudden slowdown in car sales in China and India is threatening to shrink the global auto market this year, promising tougher times for an industry leaning on the two most populous countries to pick up the slack in the West.

Early this year, industry executives had been optimistic that demand in the world's 2nd- and 11th-largest car markets would charge ahead, despite fallout from the U.S. credit crisis.

But inflation, led by soaring fuel costs, and other economic problems have caught up with car consumption much faster than expected. In July, car sales in China rose 6.8 percent from the year before, the slowest pace in two years, while sales in India fell for the first time in about three years.

And while soaring fuel and commodities prices have powered a faster-than-expected sales increase in areas rich in resources, like Russia, Brazil and the Middle East, that has not been enough to make up for struggling demand almost everywhere else.

"China is almost three times the size of the Russian car market, so for every 1 percent reduction in Chinese sales you need a Russian rise of 3 percent to offset that," said Adam Jonas, auto analyst at Morgan Stanley.

"For now," he added, "Brazil and Russia are helping to soften the blow, but we have still revised down our global growth forecasts throughout the year."

Morgan Stanley now expects global car sales to decline 0.3 percent this year to 58.1 million vehicles after forecasting an expansion of 3.5 percent at the beginning of the year.

China will still account for much of the sales increase as its economy heads for a sixth straight year of double-digit growth. But with so much resting on that market, competition is set to intensify just as fast.

In a sign of the times, Mazda Motor last week halved its sales forecast at a Chinese venture selling compact cars, admitting that it had set its goal too high.

Standard & Poor's says rising competition among carmakers in the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China - is already beginning to dampen profitability.

Within a few short years, China has turned into one of the most competitive auto markets from one of the most lucrative, suggesting that even Russia, where foreign car sales grew 40 percent in July, could soon go down a similar road.

The unpredictable pace of growth underscores the importance of having a well-balanced regional portfolio, something that all big players are working on.

"We need to keep in mind that the BRIC markets aren't always going to be strong," Mitsuo Kinoshita, executive vice president at Toyota Motor, said last week.

Based on first-half sales, the world's top three automakers, Toyota, General Motors and Volkswagen, relied on the mature North American, Japanese and European markets, excluding Russia, for up to two-thirds of their total sales.

For quick growth, heavy exposure to the fastest-growing BRIC markets, especially China, is still key - a mix that favors GM, Volkswagen and Hyundai.

Its North American and general financial woes aside, GM is a formidable force in BRIC markets, ranking first in Russia and China and third in Brazil.

Volkswagen is a close second in both Brazil and China while it has plans to beef up sales rapidly in Russia.

Toyota has yet to make headway in India and Brazil, while it is now No. 3 in China, behind General Motors and Volkswagen, climbing from nowhere five years ago. Hyundai of South Korea is the world's fifth-biggest automaker thanks to its big presence in China, India and Russia.

But analysts say the real race lies ahead.

The bulk of vehicles sold in Brazil and India are of the low-end variety, cars like Renault/Dacia's hit model Logan, the kind that most top automakers still do not have.


"It's critical to have an entry-level car to compete in emerging markets," said Jonas of Morgan Stanley. "All big brands will come out with their 'Logan-fighters' over the next two years or so."

Home-grown competitors are also stepping up, with Tata Motors of India scheduled to deliver the Nano, the world's cheapest car, next month.

Toyota, for its part, has said it would start production of a new, entry-level car in India in 2010 and Brazil in 2011. That will put it behind GM, which said last week it would offer a new small car in India next year.

Yet having the right product is only part of the equation. A solid distribution and sales network is just as vital, meaning that operations like Fiat's in Brazil and Maruti Suzuki's in India are tough competitors.

Building the sales and distribution network "takes the most time, and it's part of the reason that Japanese automakers are sputtering in Latin America," said Tatsuo Yoshida, a UBS auto analyst.

While Armstrong noted that there was no single formula to win in developing markets, he said the Japanese seemed to have a short-term advantage since much of the current growth was happening in Asia.

"All the world growth is essentially coming from Asia and Russia, where the Japanese are well placed," he said.
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Wed Sep 03, 2008 9:24 am

RESEARCH ALERT-Merrill downgrades Russia, upgrades China

MOSCOW, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch downgraded Russia to neutral and upgraded China to overweight, the bank's global equity strategists said in a research note sent to reporters on Tuesday.

"China looks to be the best macro trade today in our view. Risk-reward has improved: policy turning pro-growth, investors UW, MSCI China now cheaper than the US," Merrill said.

"Russia is very cheap but high inflation, rising corporate yields and capricious politics mean the prudent call is neutral," the bank said.
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:31 pm

They are still not making me warm and fuzzy yet.. :P

Published September 3, 2008
Institutions picking up regional stocks again
Fidelity looks to Asia's growth to help fuel its expansion


By GENEVIEVE CUA

INSTITUTIONAL investors are beginning to venture into regional equity markets again, says Brett Goodin, Fidelity Investments Asia Pacific president and chief executive.

'A lot of institutional investors had taken some money off the table. What we're seeing is that big institutional investors, with whom we have long relationships, are beginning to get back into equity markets...

'From around the world they are starting to raise their cash flows into regional markets.'

Mr Goodin, however, adds that a recovery may take as long as two years to pan out. Meanwhile, volatility is expected to stay high in the next six months. 'It's important for people to work out their psychological ability to handle the risk.'

Mr Goodin is looking to the region's 'incredible' growth rate to help fuel Fidelity's expansion. The group's assets in Asia including Japan have tripled in the last four years. At the moment, Fidelity manages global assets of US$1.8 trillion, of which some US$260 billion are under its international arm, including Asia.

Mr Goodin aims to double the assets in Asia over the next three to five years, as an ageing demographic prompts savers to look for investment alternatives. 'Our real challenge is the 25 year olds ... Starting to save at 25 is so different from starting at 35 because of the compounding effect.'

Singapore was the first Asian market to see the launch of a series of retirement target maturity products under the 'Live' label, exclusively marketed by DBS. One of the 'Live' funds is designed to pay a regular income, for those who are already in retirement. The series will be launched in Hong Kong this year. Fidelity has so far registered more than 70 funds here.

Distress in markets has caused asset prices to fall in tandem, which seems to undermine the logic of diversification. 'When everything goes down, there is a lot more correlation among asset classes than people think. The first thing is, don't try to time the markets. We encourage intermediaries to make regular savings plans more attractive in terms of fees. That's a much safer way to invest and avoids 'hot' selling.'

He adds that crisis periods like this are a good time to seek to discern managers with strong research into stocks' fundamentals. 'When a rising tide is lifting everything, it's tougher to differentiate between managers. You need to invest with managers that can spot the differences among companies.'
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

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Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby ishak » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:34 pm

Asians want to bet more on property
BT, 03 Sep 2008

Barclays Wealth survey says more individuals in Asian and emerging markets would like to up property allocation, reports GENEVIEVE CUA

MASS affluent and high net worth individuals in Singapore would like to invest more into property, a survey by Barclays Wealth has found. But those surveyed also indicate that in a time of increased economic volatility they would like to raise their allocations into cash, and take on more risk.

That may not be as contradictory as it sounds, says Didier von Daeniken, Barclays Wealth Asia-Pacific chief executive. 'There might not necessarily be a long term change in people's willingness to bear risk, although there is clearly a temporary reduction in risk-taking due to less optimistic investment prospects.'

Barclays has just published the latest in its series of 'Wealth Insights' publications, this time looking into behavioural finance aspects of clients' attitudes. The survey has found that on property, more individuals in the Asian and emerging markets say they would like to invest more, compared to those in the UK, Germany and Spain.

The survey, done together with the Economic Intelligence, was conducted between March and April this year. Sentiment here on property, however, has dampened markedly this year, alongside a bleaker economic outlook. Roughly 2,300 investors were polled, with investable assets of between £500,000 and over £30 million.

On property, 57 per cent of those in China indicated they want to raise allocations, compared to 48 per cent of clients in India and 45 per cent of Singaporeans.

Greg Davies, Barclays Wealth head of behavioural finance, says a drop in property prices may not dampen desire by very much. 'Our economic research people tend to feel that perhaps the lower availability and depth of (alternatives) is one reason for the property focus in Asia.'

On volatility, he says: 'Data seems to suggest that Asian investors treat volatility more opportunistically, rather than cautiously.' This may be partly because investors see the current downturn as a 'dip' in an upward trend for Asia and the emerging markets.

'In these markets up to last October, the recent trend has been very strongly positive, and individuals are very strongly influenced by trends. In mature markets, data extends much further back and they see this as a cyclical dowturn rather than a dip in an uptrend.'

Another factor that may favour risk taking is that many in Asia are entrepreneurial, first or second generation wealth owners. 'Even with the recent and fairly strong drop in Asian markets, many people are so much wealthier than they have been in recent memory...This inclines people towards a more opportunistic way of thinking.'

Age appears to play a part in the desire to allocate to cash. Younger respondents under 50 are more likely to move to cash in a market upheaval, than those over 50. Younger respondents were also more likely to trade more frequently. This is likely to reflect the fact that older investors have more experience of previous cycles and may be less nervous in the face of volatility.

In terms of monitoring their portfolios, 71 per cent of the individuals monitor their overall portfolio at least monthly, and 41 per cent monitor either weekly or daily. In the study, Mr Davies says that the frequency of monitoring a portfolio is linked to an investor's level of composure. Those with lower levels of composure are likely to watch their investments more closely.

Those who monitor more tend to focus on relative benchmarks rather than absolute ones. Individuals' perception of their own skills, and the extent to which they think their skills contribute to success instead of luck, also play a part. Wealthy investors who attribute success to their skills are more likely to monitor and take risks.

The study also looked into clients' sources of advice. It found that those with assets greater than £30 million are more likely to seek advice from a business adviser. Those with between £500,000 and £1 million in assets, however, look to the media. This suggests that as individuals gain wealth, they are more likely to rely on professional advice.

In terms of gender differences, women tend to be more likely to turn to family and friends, and men seem more likely to turn to the media. This is partly borne out in the Singapore portion of the survey, which found that 47 per cent of women cite family and friends as information sources. Among men, 38 per cent cite their peer group.

In addition, more than 70 per cent of men in Singapore believe that increasing the value of their portfolios is the most important outcome in wealth creation and protection. The majority of women (65 per cent), on the other hand, see regular income as the most desirable outcome.

Globally men displayed higher levels of confidence than women on a broad range of issues, including domestic equities, tax, bonds and private equities. While the Barclays survey did not look into performance, academic studies have found that women's portfolios tend to do better, as they are less likely to trade.

Mr Davies says Barclays is in the process of fine-tuning a risk profiler for Asian clients. 'We believe that most assessments that banks use is not good, not behaviourally or statistically robust, and ask the wrong questions. We'd like to make a distinction between long-run and short-run financial objectives. We need to understand clients' composure level, the degree to which they are comfortable with taking risk in the financial market context.'
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Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby ishak » Sat Sep 06, 2008 5:31 am

Charts show Asian markets oversold
STI falls 2% to hit its lowest since Oct 2006; Merrill says markets are oversold, will be 20% higher in a year
BT, 06 Sep 08

ALREADY left tottering on Thursday after a region-wide selloff, Asian markets had the rug yanked from under their feet yesterday following a blowout a day earlier on Wall Street where the major indices lost an average of 2 per cent.

The US sub-prime-related economic slowdown that is now spreading across the globe, rising joblessness and a worsening earnings outlook were said to have been responsible for the US market's selloff, this despite oil prices showing signs of retreat.

'The warning signs were there mid-week when Wall Street did not react to a large drop in oil,' said a dealer here. 'Instead, it struggled to hold on to minor gains so people should have known that trouble was brewing.'

Oil dropped US$8 a barrel on Tuesday to US$107, prompting a large run-up in regional stocks in the hope that Wall Street would react that day. Instead, it surrendered a large early rise to close weaker that day.

Since then, the US market has displayed persistent instability and a preference for focusing on bad news instead of the good. Higher labour productivity reported on Thursday, for instance, was brushed off in favour of a focus on the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on the economy, which cited weak housing, difficult credit and slowing consumer spending.

Here, the Straits Times Index plunged to a 22-month low on Thursday, and a 51.84-point or 2 per cent loss yesterday took it to 2,574.21, the lowest since it ended at 2,559 on Oct 4, 2006. It fell four of five days, losing 6 per cent in the process.

Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 456 points or 2.2 per cent to close at an 18-month low of 19,933.28, while Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 345 points or 2.8 per cent at a six-month low of 12,212.23.

Merrill Lynch in its Asia-Pacific Investment Strategy yesterday said its technical indicators show Asian markets are oversold and so predicts markets will be 20 per cent higher in 12 months.

'The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index fell to two standard deviations below its 200-day moving average in mid-July and is 1.5 standard deviations below currently. On average since 1994 when Asian markets have become this oversold, they have risen 22 per cent over the next 12 months,' said Merrill. 'A falling oil price also benefits Asia as its economies are much more energy-intensive than the US.'
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Mon Sep 08, 2008 9:16 am

Asian central banks among winners in Fannie and Freddie shift
By Keith Bradsher Published: September 7, 2008

HONG KONG: Asian central banks rank among the winners from the Bush administration's decision to transfer control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to a conservator, but the move is likely to increase longer-term worries about Asian economies, regional experts said Sunday.

Asian central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have emerged over the past several years as increasingly important buyers of bonds from the two U.S. government-sponsored enterprises. These bonds have long sold at a slight discount to Treasuries, giving them a higher interest rate.

With the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the $5.3 trillion pool of their bonds will more explicitly have the credit of the U.S. Treasury behind them.

"If it becomes like U.S. Treasuries, that is a positive for Asia," said Ifzal Ali, the chief economist of the Asian Development Bank.

But the takeover itself is likely to increase worries about the American economy, since the United States is a crucial buyer of Asian exports.

The Bush administration's move "generates a lot of new uncertainty - people don't know about the depth of the problem," Ali said from Manila, where he had been reached by telephone.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become increasingly dependent on Asian money in recent years, and particularly money from Asian central banks.

An analysis of the latest available data, released Wednesday by CreditSights, an independent research company in New York, found that while central banks had historically accounted for a quarter of purchases of Freddie Mac debt, for example, their share of purchases had risen to 37 percent for debt issued since 2006. The bulk of those purchases appears to have been by Asian central banks, who have been buying dollar-denominated securities at a record pace to slow their currencies' rise against the dollar and preserve the competitiveness of their exports.

Among Asian central banks, the People's Bank of China has been particularly aggressive in chasing higher yields on its $1.8 trillion in foreign exchange reserves by buying Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities.

Other central banks in the region, like the Bank of Japan, are widely believed to have stuck mostly with Treasuries while still buying significant sums of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt.

The People's Bank of China seldom issues any comment regarding its foreign investments. The central bank is under pressure from other Chinese government agencies to continue buying large quantities of U.S. securities so as to prevent the yuan from rising against the dollar, even though the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has been costly, absorbing one-seventh of China's entire economic output during the first half of this year.

Standard & Poor's, the credit rating company, estimates that the People's Bank of China held $340 billion of these agency securities at the end of June, but it has been unable to estimate overall Asian holdings.

Nicholas Lardy, a specialist in Chinese finance at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in an interview last week, before the Treasury had concluded its plan for a takeover, that the Chinese government had refrained from buying common or preferred shares in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and had stuck to purchasing their bonds. Shareholders of both institutions have faced heavy losses this year on both stocks and now face more losses with the government takeover of the companies.

Central banks across Asia have talked over the past several years about putting greater proportions of their new investments into currencies other than U.S. dollars. But many experts say that they have been slow to do so because only the U.S. fixed-income market offers them the liquidity they need to purchase tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars of securities each year.

Eswar Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund official who is now a Cornell University and Brookings Institution economist, said in an e-mail message that Asian central bank purchases had helped the United States.

"But for the inertia in the investment decisions of emerging market (especially Asian) central banks, Fannie and Freddie may have started coming apart even sooner," he wrote.
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Fri Sep 12, 2008 4:19 pm

Asia Pacific Stocks `Very Close' to Trough, Morgan Stanley Says
By Chua Kong Ho

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan appear to be ``very close to a trough'' when compared to previous market cycles, according to Morgan Stanley.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index is trading at 11 times forward price-earnings, just 5 percent above trough levels in prior market downturns, said Morgan Stanley analysts led by Malcolm Wood in a note today. When compared to reported earnings, current valuations are 14 percent below the average trough level of 14.9 times, the note said.

Other signs that point to a market bottom include a slowing decline in U.S. home prices and depressed sentiment in Asia, according to the note.

The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index has declined 33 percent this year and is valued at 11.9 times reported earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:41 pm

From CIMB:-

Most Asian equity markets are also expected to rebound in the coming weeks as they are close to their troughs.

This rebound could take anywhere between two and six months to complete.
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Tue Sep 16, 2008 8:12 am

winston wrote:From CIMB:-

Most Asian equity markets are also expected to rebound in the coming weeks as they are close to their troughs.

This rebound could take anywhere between two and six months to complete.


From Huatopedia:-

Most Asian equity markets are also expected to see volatile sessions. It might go down or it might go up. THe chances of it going down is 50%, failing which it will go up.

We expect a rebound within the next 3 years. If it does not rebound, we are all going to hell..
:lol: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :lol:
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