Asia - Economic Data & News 01 (Jun 08 - Jun 16)

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby financecaptain » Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:32 pm

Could not agree more that it is highly optimistic.
If its Managment is equally optimistic they would not need to fire the poor 900 guys and price the rights issue so low. They can always wait for market to recover to price better the rights or even do a placement. What an irony ? Or should I say slap yourself in the face ?
Learning from history, you can expect to see a short bear rally before a long decline (may not be steep) sets in.
Possible for Dow to go below 6,000 and the STI to go below 1,400.
Just my view.
User avatar
financecaptain
Foreman
 
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:49 pm

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:14 pm

Jan 7, 2009
'V-shaped' recovery for Asia

ASIAN economic growth, after slowing this year, will probably rebound in 2010 as government spending and interest rate cuts spur demand, BNP Paribas SA said on Wednesday.

Asia, excluding Japan and China, will grow 4.3 per cent next year after a 1.4 per cent expansion in 2009, Mr Richard Iley, an economist at the bank, wrote in a report, according to Bloomberg news. Public spending in China, Taiwan and South Korea, combined with increasingly loosemonetary policy, should help to drive a 'reasonably vibrant' recovery, he said.

Asian governments are planning more measures to boost growth as a slump in global demand hurts exports, deepening the region's economic slowdown. South Korea has pledged about $30 billion in extra spending and tax cuts since September. China may follow a 4 trillion yuan spending package announced November with a second plan as early as this month.

'The scale of the global policy response - monetary and fiscal - should ensure the recovery is more V than U-shaped,' Mr Iley said. 'In many instances, economies will experience a 6 to 7 percentage point swing in growth rates.'

The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9 per cent at 1.43 pm in Tokyo today, taking its gain since reaching a five-year low in October to 23 per cent.

Mr Iley's report, titled 'Asia: Apocalypse Now,' said that before improving, Asia's economic growth would deteriorate in 2009.

'Global industrial production appears to have collapsed at a 30-40 per cent annualised rate since September,' he said, referring to the 'biggest demand shock since the 1930s.'

Bloomberg said as a result of the drop in output, BNP Paribas cut its 2008 forecast for Asian economic growth to 1.4 per cent from a November prediction of 3.9 per cent. The region comprises Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, according to BNP Paribas.

Mr Iley said China will grow about 7.7 per cent in 2009, helped by the November fiscal package 'worth an eye-popping' 14 per cent of gross domestic product over two years. The economy probably expanded 9.3 per cent in 2008, slowing from 11.9 per cent the year before. He predicted 8.1 per cent growth in 2010.

Hong Kong will grow 3.5 per cent in 2010 after shrinking 3.4 per cent this year, the bank predicted. Taiwan will expand 3.9 per cent after contracting 3.3 per cent; Singapore will grow 4.4 per cent after declining 2.8 per cent this year. South Korea will expand 3.2 per cent, rebounding from a 2.4 per cent contraction.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:51 pm

John Paulson has a very good quote which I appended in the John Paulson thread.

He said,"To know what is around the corner, we need to survive to the corner first".

Whether it is a "V", "U" or "L", it does not mean anything to me at this point in time.

All I know is that the economy will not turnaround in 9 months. And if stocks leads the economy by 3 to 6 months, then stocks are ...
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118533
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby LenaHuat » Tue Jan 13, 2009 8:48 am

Blackrock's head of asset allocation and economics thinks Asian equities will :-
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=76941&sid=22214841&con_type=1
Please be forewarned that you are reading a post by an otiose housewife. ImageImage**Image**Image@@ImageImageImage
User avatar
LenaHuat
Big Boss
 
Posts: 3229
Joined: Thu May 08, 2008 9:35 am

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby millionairemind » Wed Jan 21, 2009 6:56 am

Bank sees most of Asia hitting bottom in Q2

Region's gradual recovery to fuel sustained stock rebound in H2

By CONRAD TAN

MOST Asian economies are likely to hit bottom in the second quarter of this year and then begin a slow recovery, analysts from Credit Suisse's private banking division said yesterday.

Fan Cheuk Wan, head of Asia-Pacific research for Credit Suisse Private Bank, said the expected recovery will fuel a sustained rebound in Asian equity markets in second-half 2009.

The bank is telling clients to pick stocks most likely to benefit from China's plan to spend four trillion yuan (S$883 billion) in 2009-10 on infrastructure projects and social programmes to help its poor.

These aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, including efforts to expand bank lending by cutting interest rates and bank reserve requirements, mean China will lead Asia's recovery from the downturn, said Credit Suisse's Asian chief economist Joseph Tan.

'It's not just the size of the stimulus package but the speed and the willingness of the authorities' to act to save jobs and prevent social unrest that will sustain China's growth at 8 per cent this year, he said.

Also, the central control exerted by the Chinese government gives it the ability to push out new loans to businesses and people quickly - a task that governments in the US and Europe are struggling with, Mr Tan said.

Overall, Ms Fan said investors should adopt a 'defensive' strategy for the first six months of 2009, buying stocks and bonds of firms that are cash-rich and do business in sectors such as utilities and consumer staples, which are most likely to survive the recession well.

'Although we expect a short-term one to three- month equity rally, we recommend investors stay cautious and position themselves in companies that are cash-rich,' she said.

The next few months will probably bring more nasty shocks for stockmarket investors, as analysts cut their earnings forecasts further after the latest results reporting season, she added. But by the end of Q2, the outlook should look cheerier.

'We expect a trough for Asia economic growth towards the end of the first half, then a slow recovery,' she said. This will support a rebound in Asian equity markets in the second half.'
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 8183
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Thu Jan 22, 2009 2:13 pm

FACTBOX-Asia fund managers finding bargains in stocks, bonds

HONG KONG, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Asian economies will likely remain under severe pressure this year because of deep recessions in the developed world, but some asset managers have discovered bargains in regional corporate credit and equity markets.

The rush out of risky assets that accelerated a violent move out of equities and emerging market currencies into government bonds last year has caused some high quality stocks and bonds to be dragged down as well.

Many global fund managers with longer time horizons say they believe 2009 presents an opportunity to sift through last year's wreckage and take advantage of these bargains even though the near-term economic outlook for Asia is grim. Below is a list gathered in the last few weeks of asset management firms and their strategies for the year.

ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT ASIA:

* View: Emerging economies will gradually decouple from developed ones as year progresses. Asia will recover relatively quickly because of the region's high saving rates, relatively low corporate debt and government fiscal flexibility.

* Market strategy:Rapid deleveraging in 2008 has uncovered attractive opportunities in corporate credit and equities. Focus on balance sheet strength and market leaders.

* Asset allocation: Overweight equities overall, with underweight U.S. stocks, overweight Asia and neutral on Europe. Extra allocation for corporate bonds. Currently short Asian currencies against U.S. dollar but will look to go long Asia in second half of 2009.

* Assets under management: $26.5 billion as of November 2008.

BARING ASSET MANAGEMENT:

* View: Worst-case scenario for the global economy has been almost fully discounted by markets. Asian economies and consumers are under-leveraged, and regional market valuations are attractive.

* Market strategy: Growth assets look cheap and "under-owned" in comparison to safe-haven assets investors relied on last year.

* Asset allocation: Best growth assets include developed economy corporate bonds, Chinese equities, some commodities. Barings has been adding Hong Kong, Chinese, some U.S. equities and mid-maturity U.S. corporate bonds to its multi-asset portfolios since October 2008.

* Assets under management: $5.8 billion in Asia Pacific as of November 2008.

HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT:

* View: Global recession will be deep and last for most of 2009. Fiscal stimulus and monetary action will be the only supports against severe downturn. Asia is well-positioned with sound banking structures, low leverage and fiscal surpluses. Latin America will feel drag of lower commodity prices, Eastern Europe is vulnerable due to large current account deficits.

* Market strategy: Financial balance sheets and corporate earnings likely to continue to suffer this year, but significant opportunities lie in equities and corporate bonds.

* Asset allocation: Equities likely to bottom in first half of 2009. Valuations are attractive, especially in Europe and Asia. Government bonds have a significant risk in the long term because of massive new issuance. U.S. corporate credit is a bargain at current spread levels. U.S. dollar likely to weaken in 2009 essentially because of extensive money printing.

* Assets under management: $45 billion in Asia Pacific as of September 2008.

ING INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, ASIA PACIFIC:

* View: Asia, ex Japan, will continue to suffer as a knock-on effect of the U.S. recession. Unemployment may continue to rise and prices of real estate will probably fall further. China, though, will weather the global downturn best, utilising fiscal spending, lower taxes, easier monetary policy.

* Market strategy: Not optimistic on Asian equity markets in general and expect investors to rotate funds from one country to another and from sector to another. Rates China's equities market neutral but plans to come in once investors have sold off and valuations have come down.

* Asset allocation: Overweight on India's equity market, favouring telecommunications, construction and infrastructure sectors. Underweight on export-dependent countries such as South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. Avoiding resource sectors such as oil because demand will continue to fall.

* Assets under management: $125 billion.

INVESCO:

* View: Developed economies will shrink in 2009, most significantly in the United States. Recovery is most likely in 2010. Expects forthcoming fiscal stimulus from the Obama administration to be a disappointment because it doesn't focus squarely on indebtedness.

* Market strategy: Lower inflation around the world is advantageous for corporate bonds and supporting an extended upturn for equities. Asia's lack of debt compared with the United States or Britain will enable the region to recover more quickly than other parts of the world.

* Asset allocation: In non-Japan Asia stocks, overweight China, Hong Kong, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines. Underweight Malaysia, South Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore.

* Assets under management: $17.2 billion in Asia Pacific

PIMCO ASIA LTD:

* View: Asia will not see much growth overall because it is still very reliant on developed economies for demand, but should see the effects of reflation in 2010. Like the United States and Europe, Asian governments will enact Keynesian policies to support growth.

* Market strategy: Cost of capital is too high in Asia and there are too many risks associated with emerging markets. Credit spreads in developed world, in particular Europe and the United States, offer better reward for the risk.

* Assets under management: Approximately $15 billion in Hong Kong and Singapore offices as of September 2008.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118533
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Tue Feb 03, 2009 6:38 pm

Foreign investors wary of Asia By Rafael Nam

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares and investment grade bonds look very cheap on paper, but may not yet attract foreign investors, suggesting there is more downside to markets before a solid recovery.

The worst global crisis in a lifetime has shown up Asia's vulnerability as a region built on trade, with record falls in exports and industrial output from South Korea to Taiwan and big losses at blue chip companies such as Sony Corp (6758.T).

That problem is compounded by another.

In an environment of frayed nerves where the first impulse is flight, it pays to be in more liquid and more developed markets such as Europe and the United States.

That shift is made easier in a world of cheap securities and attractive deals from government-guaranteed bank debt to corporate bonds from the likes of Nokia (NOK1V.HE).

"The liquidity and technicals tend to be better within developed markets as they are established and well understood," said Brayan Lai, a credit analyst at Calyon in Hong Kong.

"There's no huge push to go searching for returns, as in the past, because everything is just cheap right now and there are opportunities everywhere."

Foreign investors ploughed $160 billion into Asian stock markets excluding Japan in 1998-2006, but last year alone pulled out $64 billion (45 billion pounds), according to HSBC estimates.
Despite modest advances into some markets this year, they have not returned in big enough numbers to make much of a dent.

After a record 53.3 percent drop last year, the MSCI index of Asian stocks outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 7.7 percent in January. Sure, that also reflects local selling, but foreigners own close to a third of overall Asian shares.

Purchases by overseas investors helped the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index provide compound returns of 22 percent from 2003-07, HSBC said. That will be hard to match as investors shift to other assets.

"The days of 22 percent are over," wrote HSBC strategist Garry Evans. "This all says that we may be in for a long period of non-trending stock markets."

Foreign investors also remain wary of Asian credit markets -- a segment where they account for the bulk of trading -- with regional corporate spreads still far above those in the United States and Europe.

"I'm not a believer that an IG rally has begun," said Scott Bennett, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in Singapore, referring to investment-grade bonds.

"You can't ignore that there's a lot of bad economic data out from the U.S. and Asia. GDPs are slowing down, fiscal deficits are rising, and fourth quarter numbers are hitting new lows," he noted.

CHEAP ASIA

The lack of foreign investors defies some compelling mathematics.

The price-to-earnings ratio for Asian stocks excluding Japan for the 12 months ahead sank to an historic low of 8.7 in November, before recovering to 10.8 as of mid-January, according to Thomson Reuters data.

That's cheaper than the S&P 500 index .SPX, which fell to a low of 9.5 in November and traded at 11.2 last month.

In credit, the Asia iTRAXX index soared to a record high of around 650 basis points in late October. The current levels of 350 bps marks a solid recovery, but still implies a default level worse than the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

Equally compelling are data showing a region reeling from the slowdowns in key markets in China and the United States, with double-digit falls in exports and output from Singapore to Seoul.

Corporate results are also grim. Sony has forecast a record annual operating loss and Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) has forecast its first annual operating loss as demand for new cars withers amid the global economic slowdown.

That's not to say Asian financial markets won't recover, but it's hard to see big rallies.

Manpreet Gill, Asia strategist at Barclays Wealth, reckons investors need to watch for opportunities to add risk, especially in investment-grade bonds. The question is one of timing.

"We think investment-grade bonds will perform well over the year, but possibly not right away," he said. "You need liquidity and some risk appetite to return to credit markets.

"For us, it's always been one of the necessary conditions for a return to risky assets in general, whether it be equities or investment-grade bonds."
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118533
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:39 pm

CLSA slashes S.Korea, Taiwan economic outlooks

SINGAPORE, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Hong Kong-based broker CLSA has sharply cut its outlooks for South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, saying their economies would shrink even more this year than during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

"Asia, having avoided the perils of too much leverage, is finding that its growth is acutely vulnerable to the cessation of demand from the west," CLSA economists said in a research report.

The forecasts released on Wednesday are so far the lowest by any bank or broker for those three countries. The comments come a day after the International Monetary Fund underscored the dismal state of Asia's economies by cutting its growth forecast for the region to just 2.7 percent from a November forecast of 4.9 percent.

CLSA expects gross domestic product in South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, to shrink by 7 percent this year, reflecting falling exports, consumption and investment. Its previous forecast was for 1.7 percent contraction.

It expects Taiwan's economy to shrink by 11 percent in 2009, making it the worst performer in Asia and saying it was "tying with Singapore as the most vulnerable economy in the region". Its previous forecast was for a contraction of 2.7 percent.

Singapore will be hit by falling trade, declining property prices and its exposure to the financial industry, CLSA said, with gross domestic product expected to shrink 10 percent, down from its original forecast of a 2.6 percent decline.

CLSA maintained its previous growth forecast for China at 5.5 percent.

It lowered its view on Indonesia, predicting growth of less than 1 percent, compared with previous 2.2 percent, and slashed its forecast for Hong Kong to a contraction of 5 percent from a drop of 1.7 percent.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118533
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:05 pm

HSBC sees Asia recovering first from global slump

HONG KONG, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Asia should be the first region to recover from global recession, thanks to the consumption power of its growing middle class, Sandy Flockhart, Asia-Pacific head of banking giant HSBC <0005.HK> said on Thursday.

"The bad news is we are experiencing a severe global economic downturn. Global GDP should shrink in 2009," Flockhart told a conference in Hong Kong.

"China and India continue to have high growth rates. The good news is that this region will be the first to recover from the crisis," he said, citing a growing middle class as one of Asia's stronger characteristics.

Flockhart's view contrasts with that of IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who said last week that Asia would not pull through the global economic downturn on its own [ID:nSP294027].

Asian exports have plunged at double-digit rates in the past month as a result of weaker European and American consumer spending.

China on Wednesday reported an unexpectedly sharp 17.5 percent drop in January exports, the steepest decline since records began in 1993. Weak exports have pushed Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore into recession and economists say Taiwan and South Korea are heading for recession.

Economic development in emerging Asia, however, is boosting the number of medium-income households and the region is relying on them to spur consumer spending and offset the export slump.

Flockhart said sweeping measures by governments around the world to stimulate growth were positive moves.

China believes it can still achieve 8 percent economic growth this year, helped by a 4 trillion yuan (US$585 billion) fiscal stimulus package announced late last year.

India expects its economy to grow by 7.1 percent in 2008/09, a six-year low, and has also introduced fiscal measures, but Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwali said this week that further stimulus would be needed to sustain growth.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118533
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Thu Feb 19, 2009 2:13 pm

Rich Asians say 2009 a good year for investing-Visa

SINGAPORE, Feb 19 (Reuters) - High-income earners in the Asia Pacific region see 2009 as a good year for investing despite the uncertain economic conditions, according to a survey by credit card company Visa.

Sixty four percent of respondents surveyed by the firm said they were likely to set aside more money for investments in 2009.

The most bullish were people in India, where 91 percent said they will invest more, followed by China, with 70 percent, and Singapore, with 69 percent.

About two-thirds of respondents, however, said they intended to tighten their belts and consume less.

The Visa survey covered 4,106 people in Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, China, Australia, India and Japan.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118533
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests