Middle East

Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:51 pm

The other palace coup

The Saudi hand in Saad Hariri’s resignation as Lebanese prime minister

Saudi Arabia effectively hands control of Lebanon to Iran and Hizbullah

AS IF shuffling one government were too slight a task, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious young crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, has changed two.

On November 4th, the same day as the Saudi purge, Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri, unexpectedly appeared on television to announce he was resigning. Although he said he was stepping down because his life was in danger—he denounced Iran and its powerful Lebanese ally, Hizbullah—there was little to disguise the Saudi hand in his statement.

The announcement was recorded in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, and broadcast on a Saudi television channel. Since then he has stayed out of reach under Saudi guard and possibly under arrest.

A few days earlier the kingdom’s Gulf-affairs minister, Thamer al-Sabhan, had promised “astonishing” developments to topple Hizbullah, a Shia militia-cum-political-party that calls the shots in Lebanon.

At first glance Saudi Arabia’s desire to oust Mr Hariri, a Saudi-born Sunni, makes little sense. The kingdom and America had long supported him as a bulwark against Hizbullah. After taking office last December, Mr Hariri passed Lebanon’s first budget since 2005 and secured agreement for the first parliamentary elections since 2009. Tourism in Lebanon has been picking up. Agreements for offshore oil projects were in the offing.

With Mr Hariri out of the way, Saudi Arabia can now denounce Lebanon’s government as a stooge of Iran and its Shia proxy. It may have a point. The Taif agreement that ended Lebanon’s long civil war in 1989 disarmed all sectarian militias bar Hizbullah’s.

That may have been justifiable when the group was fighting against Israel’s occupation of its self-declared “security zone” in the south. But since Israel withdrew its troops in 2000, the group has torpedoed every political and military attempt to make it lay down its weapons.

Rafik Hariri, Saad’s father and a popular former prime minister, was assassinated in 2005 when he tried to disarm the group. Several of its members are being tried in absentia in The Hague, where they are accused of involvement in his murder. And Israel’s efforts to defang Hizbullah during a short war in 2006 ended in stalemate.

Since then the group has pushed far beyond its southern confines. In 2008 its militiamen briefly took over the capital, Beirut, and thousands of its fighters have fought against Sunni rebels in Syria.

They have returned battle-hardened. Earlier this year they defeated jihadists who flew Islamic State’s black flag over their encampments in Sunni parts of Lebanon’s mountainous north. Now Hizbullah’s green-and-yellow flags flutter above checkpoints on roads between Sunni villages. Its secret policemen round up dissenters and its fighters work closely with the supposedly neutral Lebanese army. No other force—the army included—can match its clout.

Yet Saudi talk of removing Hizbullah sounds like little more than bluster. The kingdom is already bogged down in one war with Iranian proxies in Yemen and could not sustain another. And even though Israel worries about Hizbullah’s growing arsenal of rockets and missiles, it will not fight to a Saudi timetable.

Still, Saudi Arabia has other cards to play. Without its financial backing, Lebanon will struggle to stave off bankruptcy. Saudi deposits prop up Lebanon’s banks and about 400,000 Lebanese nationals work in the Gulf, sending home a large chunk of the remittances that make up 20% of Lebanon’s economy.

Mr Hariri’s resignation has already sent Lebanese bonds spiralling and prompted warnings of a cut in its credit rating. Financial sanctions that America imposed on Hizbullah in October will further tighten the screws. A donor conference on aid to 1.5m refugees that was expected before the year’s end could be postponed.

Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is not one to buckle under pressure. But he may be forced to compromise to salvage the economy. The Saudis hope that popular pressure could force him to give priority to butter over guns.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:55 pm

The war the world ignores

How—and why—to end the war in Yemen

A pointless conflict has caused the worst humanitarian crisis in the world


YEMEN lost the title of Arabia Felix, or “Fortunate Arabia”, long ago. It has suffered civil wars, tribalism, jihadist violence and appalling poverty. But none of this compares with the misery being inflicted on the country today by the war between a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis, a Shia militia backed by Iran.

The UN reckons three-quarters of Yemen’s 28m people need some kind of humanitarian aid. Mounting rubbish, failing sewerage and wrecked water supplies have led to the worst cholera outbreak in recent history.

The country is on the brink of famine. The economy has crumbled, leaving people with impossible choices. Each day the al-Thawra hospital in Hodeida must decide which of the life-saving equipment to run with what little fuel it has.

Perhaps the worst of it is that much of the world seems unperturbed (see Briefing), calloused by the years of bloodshed in Syria and other parts of the Middle East, and despairing of its ability to effect change.

To be cynical, Yemen is farther away from Europe than Syria is; its wretched people do not, on the whole, wash up in the West seeking asylum.

Yet the world ignores Yemen at its peril. Set aside for a moment the obligation to relieve suffering and protect civilians. Hard security interests are also at stake. The world can ill afford another failed state—a new Afghanistan or Somalia—that becomes a breeding-ground for global terrorism.

Yemen, moreover, dominates the Bab al-Mandab strait, a choke-point for ships using the Suez canal. Like it or not, the West is involved. The Saudi-led coalition is fighting with Western warplanes and munitions. Western satellites guide its bombs.

Slippery Saleh

Like so much else in the Arab world, Yemen’s agony can be traced to the Arab-spring uprisings of 2011. Mass protests, a near-assassination of the then president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and a shove from neighbouring petro-states forced him to step down in 2012 in favour of his vice-president, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

A draft constitution in 2015 proposed a federal system and a parliament split between northerners and southerners. But the Houthi rebels, who had fought Mr Saleh, rejected it. The Houthis, who follow the Zaydi branch of Shiism (as do perhaps 40% of Yemenis), complained that, among other things, the constitution stuck them in a region with few resources and without access to the sea.

Now allied with Mr Saleh, who spotted an opportunity for a comeback, the Houthis ousted Mr Hadi from Sana’a, the capital, and chased him all the way to Aden. Saudi Arabia gathered a coalition of Arab states and local militias—among them Islamists, Salafists and southern separatists—and forced the Houthis to retreat partway.

For the past year, the battle-lines have barely moved. The Houthis are too weak to rule over Yemen but too powerful for Saudi Arabia to defeat.

As a result, Yemenis have become the pawns in the regional power-struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Alarmed by Iran’s spreading influence, the Saudis have begun to speak of the Houthis rather as Israelis refer to the Lebanese militia, Hizbullah: a dangerous Iranian proxy army on their border.

Indeed, the Saudis have much to learn from Israel’s experience. Even with the most sophisticated weapons, it is all but impossible to defeat a militia that is well entrenched in a civilian population. The stronger side is blamed for the pain of those civilians. For the weaker lot, survival is victory.

So, even though the Houthis are primarily responsible for starting the war and capable of great cruelty, it is the Saudis who are accused of war crimes. Often the accusation is justified. In their air campaign, they have been careless and incompetent at best, and probably cynical.

Human-rights groups say bombs have been aimed at schools, markets, mosques and hospitals. And the blockade raises suspicion that the Saudis are using food as a tool of war.

The longer the war goes on, the more Saudi Arabia’s Western allies are complicit in its actions. President Donald Trump has given Saudi Arabia carte blanche to act recklessly (see article). He may think it is all part of confronting Iran; or he may want to support the liberalising reforms of the Saudi crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman; or he may hope to profit by selling the Saudis “lots of beautiful military equipment”.

Whatever the case, he is damaging America’s interests. Precisely because of the importance of Saudi Arabia—the world’s biggest oil exporter and home to Islam’s two holiest places—the West should urge restraint on the impetuous prince and help disentangle him from an unwinnable war.

How? Peace talks led by the UN have begun with the demand that the Houthis surrender. That is unrealistic. Better to freeze the conflict and find another mediator, such as Oman or Kuwait. A deal should involve a phased withdrawal of Houthi fighters from Sana’a and the Saudi border, and the end of the Saudi blockade.

Yemen needs an inclusive government, elections and a new structure for the state. Saudi Arabia will need guarantees that Iranian arms are not flowing into Yemen. Then it will have to cough up the cash to rebuild the country.

None of this will be easy. But a reasonable peace offer is more likely to crack the Houthis than more bombing. Without the cover of fighting Saudi aggression, the Houthis will have to answer for their failures. The public is increasingly turning against them, the alliance with Mr Saleh is fraying and the Houthis themselves are divided.

Stop the war

Right now, far from halting the spread of Iran’s influence, the war has deepened the Houthis’ reliance on Iran, which has an easy and cheap means of tormenting the Saudis. And because Saudi Arabia is bogged down in Yemen, Iran has a freer hand to set the terms of a settlement in Syria.

The war is a drain on the Saudis at a time of austerity and wrenching economic reforms at home. They should therefore learn another lesson from Israel’s experience of fighting Hizbullah. If wars are to be fought at all, they should be short, and have limited aims. Deterrence is better than debilitating entanglement.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:04 pm

2019.01.06【文茜世界周報】川普敘國撤軍決策反覆 庫德族再現獨立悲歌
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYMXCau ... AU&index=2
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Wed May 01, 2019 5:23 pm

2019.04.28【文茜世界財經週報】石油禁運全面實施 美伊矛盾牽動國際油價
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l3eCxh ... xu&index=3
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Sun May 19, 2019 8:06 pm

2019.05.18【文茜世界周報】華郵揭川普對波頓不滿 白宮堅稱無內鬥
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO1_lBB ... AU&index=3
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Fri Oct 11, 2019 4:55 pm

Turkey Syria offensive: What did the Kurds ever do for the US?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50000646


Why is Turkey bombing the Kurds in Syria?
https://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_audi ... s-in-syria
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:29 pm

2019.10.12【文茜世界周報】美軍撤邊界 土耳其隨即出兵掃蕩庫德族
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xbFNXP ... U&index=10


2019.10.12【文茜世界周報】庫德族獨立建國之路 百年血淚史
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYoZ-SZ ... AU&index=7
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:06 pm

2019.10.19【文茜世界周報】共和黨痛批撤軍 川普轉彎宣布對土經濟制裁
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0Br05l ... AU&index=3
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:50 pm

2019.10.26【文茜世界周報】川普閃電撤軍 美國前腳走土國飛彈後腳到
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_vQMfv ... AU&index=3
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Re: Middle East

Postby behappyalways » Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:56 am

2020.02.02【文茜世界周報】川普兜售新中東和平計畫 遭砲轟獨厚以色列
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3G0i41 ... AU&index=1
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