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Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 16)

PostPosted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:24 pm
by winston
Market cools in Australia

House prices in Australia nudged down in the first three months of the year, says the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The official residential property price index (RPPI) fell back 0.2%.

House prices in all eight state capitals stood still at 0%. Individually, prices were up slightly in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, while Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-2%) plunged in line with the rapid decline in mining and commodity prices worldwide.

The cities are centres for commodity resources.

“Property prices are about right and nowhere near a bubble,” said economist Shane Oliver, of AMP Capital.

“The figures are overstating a cooling in the market and we should not read too much into them.”


Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 16)

PostPosted: Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:36 pm
by behappyalways
Australian banks face off against rate-rigging lawsuits

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 16)

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:00 am
by winston
Is Australia Heading To A Recession?

By Shuli Ren

Australia’s September quarter GDP numbers, released this morning, came as a big surprise to the markets.

The Australian economy has been surprisingly resilient, not having had a recession in over two decades.

But in the third quarter, Australia’s GDP contracted by 0.5% from the June quarter, only the fourth fall in GDP in 25 years!

So is Australia heading to a recession?

It would be too early to reach that conclusion. Australia’s Q3 growth number was weak because the first-half was very strong.

Source: Barron's Asia ... recession/

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 16)

PostPosted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:49 pm
by behappyalways
澳原住民慘被鱷魚咬死 ... 1484630264

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 17)

PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:39 pm
by winston
Chinese Foreign Minister to visit Australia in wake of Donald Trump tiff

While China is Australia’s largest trade partner, relations between the two countries have been complicated by Australia’s alliance with the US.

In July, a joint statement from the US, Japan and Australia, urged China not to construct military outposts and reclaim land in the disputed South China Sea.

At the time, Wang condemned the statement and accused the three countries of “fanning the flames”.

China and Australia signed a free trade agreement in 2015, after years of difficult negotiations.

Source: AFP ... rump-tiff/

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 17)

PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 5:55 pm
by winston
Australia To See Zero Growth In 2017, 3 Rate Cuts Likely: Credit Suisse

By Shuli Ren

Credit Suisse painted a dim view of the Australian economy in its 2017 and 2018 economic outlook, seeing no growth this year and at least two interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Analyst Damien Boey wrote:

Our stagnation forecast might look a little extreme. But we note that the partial indicators are not stacking up well for 4Q16. Following an 0.5% quarter-on-quarter contraction in real GDP in 3Q, it appears that there will be little if any rebound in 4Q activity, contrary to what many forecasters (including ourselves) have been expecting:

Our proprietary domestic demand “now-casting” (DDNow) model based on a wide range of partial and sentiment indicators points to zero domestic demand growth.

At the same time, the trade balance has become more positive in nominal terms, but slightly more negative in real, or volume, terms. Nominal exports rose by 12.2% in 4Q, while nominal imports rose by 1.6%. But the ABS has also reported that seasonally adjusted export prices rose by 12.7% in 4Q, while import prices rose 0.5%.

Real exports contracted by 0.5% in 4Q, while real imports rose by 1.1%. Subject to future data revisions, it appears that trade was a net drag on real GDP growth of around 0.3%.

We believe that the RBA will cut at least twice in 2017, and probably three times to below 1%. Whether or not it cuts more or less aggressively depends on the scale and timing of fiscal stimulus, in our view. Our rates’ outlook is at the bottom of consensus and has certainly not been priced into the curve.

The RBA will be meeting this week

Source: Barron's Asia ... it-suisse/

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 17)

PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:56 pm
by winston
RBA To Remain On Hold In 2017?

By Shuli Ren

The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded an upbeat tone on the Australian economy in its latest policy statement.

RBA now sees Australia to grow at “around 3 percent” over the next few years.

RBA’s optimistic stance is based partly on better global economy, noting “conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months” and that “above trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies”.

But the central bank was also confident Australia could successfully transition out of commodities-led boom, noting “GDP was weaker than expected in the September quarter, largely reflecting temporary factors.

A return to reasonable growth is expected in the December quarter.”

Source: SCMP ... d-in-2017/

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 17)

PostPosted: Fri May 12, 2017 5:05 pm
by behappyalways
Shuttered dreams

Buoyant prices mean ever fewer Australians can buy a house

This week’s budget offers little comfort for the “smashed avocado” generation

May 11th 2017

ABOUT 100 people gathered recently for the auction of a semi-detached bungalow in Dulwich Hill, a formerly working-class suburb about 10km from the centre of Sydney, Australia’s biggest city. The rundown property was 100 years old, with two bedrooms, peeling paint and no inside toilet. Bidding started at A$1.1m ($810,000).

About seven minutes later, it sold for almost A$1.5m to a man who expects to spend even more on it: one of his adult children will live in it “after improvements”. Shad Hassen, the auctioneer, calls the sale a “cracking result”. A few hours earlier he had sold a converted community hall nearby with “work-live possibilities” for an even more eye-watering A$2.7m.

House prices in Sydney have soared by almost a fifth in the past year alone; the median is now about A$1.1m. One recent study ranks it the second-most expensive housing market in the world relative to local incomes, after Hong Kong.

In Australia as a whole prices have quadrupled in nominal terms over the past 20 years, and risen by two-and-a-half times after accounting for inflation—on a par with Britain, and far more than in America.

As a result, the former Australian norm of home-ownership is fading. The share of 35- to 44-year-olds who own a home has fallen from three-quarters 26 years ago to less than two-thirds.

Prices are rising in part because borrowing is so cheap. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the central bank, has kept its interest rate at 1.5%, a record low, since August. But a bigger cause is the steady rise in Australia’s population, which is growing by 350,000 a year. Immigration accounts for half of that.

New dwellings are not being built fast enough to meet the extra demand. The relentless price rises, in turn, have lured speculators, whose enthusiasm compounds the problem.

About 40% of new mortgages go to investors, rather than owner-occupiers. Philip Lowe, the head of the RBA, calls such loans a “financial amplifier”, further boosting prices.

Millennials are outraged by how unaffordable houses have become. When Bernard Salt, a partner with KPMG, an accounting firm, suggested in a newspaper column last year that young buyers simply needed to cut back on breakfasts at fancy cafés to afford their deposit, he was pilloried.

Would-be homeowners, it was pointed out, would have to forgo 5,000 servings of “smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread”—48 years’ worth of overpriced weekend breakfasts—simply to raise a 10% deposit on a typical house in Sydney.

Malcolm Turnbull’s conservative federal government made “housing affordability” a feature of its budget on May 9th. It ignored calls to abolish “negative gearing”, a tax break that allows investors to deduct from their overall income any losses they make letting out a mortgaged property.

This makes investing in property in expectation of capital gains all the more alluring. Fear of annoying such investors may have played a part in the government’s decision, but self-interest may have, too.

A recent analysis by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation found that about half of Australia’s 226 federal parliamentarians own investment properties.

Instead the government says it will seek to boost supply. It announced plans to work with the states to make more land available for housing, starting with some surplus army land in Melbourne.

It will fine foreign investors who leave dwellings empty for more than six months. And it will spend billions on urban transport, arguing that this will put more homes within plausible reach of city-centre jobs.

In one respect, the property boom has been a huge economic boon, helping to perk up investment despite an abrupt crash in commodity prices which has caused new oil and mining projects to dry up. But the property market could succumb to problems of its own.

The heads of both the Treasury in Canberra and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, a corporate regulator, have warned of a housing bubble. The Grattan Institute, a think-tank, says household debt has reached a record 190% of annual after-tax income, a rise of 12 percentage points since 2015 (see chart).

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, a financial supervisor, has sought to cool things down. It wants banks to make no more than 10% of their housing loans to investors, and to cut back on “interest-only” mortgages, which do not require any principal to be repaid until the end of the borrowing period.

The central bank frets about an “environment of heightened risks” caused by the surge in debt linked to housing. Mr Lowe worries that debt is rendering Australia’s economy “less resilient to future shocks”.

He is quick to note that there is little sign of stress at the moment, and other economists maintain that Australians are culturally averse to defaulting on their mortgages. But a rise in interest rates or unemployment, or a fall in housing prices, could nonetheless prove disastrous.

Source: The Economist

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 17)

PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 11:48 am
by winston
Recession Soon?

Australia really is the Lucky Country when it comes to avoiding recessions, with Down Under not having a recession in more than 25 years.

But Bloomberg has a story questioning whether Australia's luck may be set to run out:

Weak signals from Australia are forcing economists to revisit their first-quarter growth forecasts. Some are even suggesting a contraction.

Home building, net exports and household consumption could be a drag on gross domestic product for the first three months of 2017, according to some estimates.

A negative print would raise the specter of recession, especially as a cyclone that ripped through Queensland’s key coal mining region is tipped to subtract from growth in the three months through June.

Sluggish data "all points to growth being only marginally positive at this stage and there’s certainly the risk of a negative quarter," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Ltd. in Sydney, who now expects first-quarter GDP growth of around 0.2 percent rather than the 0.5-0.6 percent he previously penciled in.

Source: Barron's Asia

Re: Australia 02 (Jan 11 - Dec 17)

PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 6:36 pm
by behappyalways
Australia Must Fix Its 'Spectacular Housing Bubble': Citi ... citi-warns