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China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Wed Feb 24, 2010 7:11 am
by winston
15 Facts About China That Will Blow Your Mind by Vincent Fernando and Gus Lubin

Despite all the wild stories you have already heard about China, expect the nation to keep blowing your mind.

That's because not only is China enormous and highly diverse, but most importantly, it's rapidly changing.

Thus China's future already looks far different today than even five years ago. It's surely not your father's 'Red China', or even your older brother's 'Made in China'... ... d-cities-1

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Wed Feb 24, 2010 7:19 am
by winston
China's 14 Dominoes Of Destruction by Vincent Fernando ... s-led-to-1

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 6:46 pm
by winston
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Top ten reasons you know China has a financial bubble on its hands by Edward Harrison.

Chancellor includes this blind faith in the 10 signposts of manias and financial crises (very reminiscent of Kindelberger, by the way).

1. "Great investment debacles generally start out with a compelling growth story."
100% yes. Check.

2. "Blind faith in the competence of the authorities."
See Roach’s comments above or read Goldilocks is not sleeping in America anymore; she’s now in China. Check.

3. "A general increase in investment is another leading indicator of financial distress. Capital is generally misspent during periods of euphoria. Only during the bust does the extent of the misallocation become clear."
See my posts China’s present growth story is built on malinvestment and Jim Chanos still bearish on China, talks malinvestment for evidence that China is misallocating resources. Check.

4. "Great booms are invariably accompanied by a surge in corruption."
Remember this post?: “I want to be a corrupt official when I grow up”. That’s exactly what Chancellor is talking about. Check.

5. "Strong growth in the money supply is another robust leading indicator of financial fragility. Easy money lies behind all great episodes of speculation from the Tulip Mania of the 1630s – which was funded with IOUs – onward."
Andy Xie: Chinese monetary policy has to be tightened Check.

6. "Fixed currency regimes often produce inappropriately low interest rates, which are liable to feed booms and end in busts."
Think Latvia or Argentina. (Are the Baltics the new Argentina?) And we know China’s peg is creating problems because that’s a bone of contention right now. Check.

7. "Crises generally follow a period of rampant credit growth."
"Enron-Esque Characteristics" Hiding An Even More Explosive Credit Growth In China. Check.

8. "Moral hazard is another common feature of great speculative manias. Credit booms are often taken to extremes due to a prevailing belief that the authorities won’t let bad things happen to the financial system. Irresponsibility is condoned."
See Stephen Roach’s comments again. Check.

9. "A rising stock of debt is not the only cause for concern. The economist Hyman Minsky observed that during periods of prosperity, financial structures become precarious."
See #7 again. Check.

10. "Dodgy loans are generally secured against collateral, most commonly real estate."

The Andy Xie story shows you this. Check.

It looks like China is ten for ten. Is China in a bubble blow-off top like Japan post-Plaza accord? I say yes. I believe anyone who thinks this will not end badly is in for a rude awakening. ... hands.html

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2010 12:43 pm
by winston
Labor Costs:-

China: US$141 per month
India: US$71 per month
Vietnam: US$74 per month

I will not worry about the last digit.

The big picture is that Chinese Cost is bouble those in Vietnam and India. So the question is whether the quality in China would be able to make up for the difference in price ?

Source: CNBC

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 7:15 am
by winston
China's Big Risk: Corporate Fraud By Eric Jackson

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Ask a random group of people who follow the markets what the greatest risk facing China is these and you'll likely hear:
â–  Rampant inflation
â–  Resource scarcity like water, food, fuel, and other commodities
â–  Property bubble
â–  Growing disparity between the rich and the poor
â–  An artificially high yuan relative to the dollar

But there's a new risk on the horizon facing China -- and it's one that's totally within its own power to control: the perception of rampant corporate fraud.

Notice I didn't say there is currently rampant fraud, but there is an undeniable unease and distrust growing in America over increasing cases of Chinese fraud. ... L_atb_html

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:48 am
by winston
Profit from :-

• China’s 457 million Internet users as they continue to spend billions each year.

• China’s 800 million cellphone users spending billions annually.

• China’s rising auto industry as they sell another 18 million cars again this year.

• China sells another 115 million TVs and 180 million computers again this year.

• Energy sector as well, as the country spends another $1.5 trillion on energy in the next five years.

• Solar sector, as China continues to dominate the world’s solar cell production.

Source: China Strategy

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2011 7:06 am
by winston
"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."
Mao Tse-tung

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:35 am
by winston
China's Very Mysterious Data

China is crashing and it is getting much more difficult to hide the fact. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes:

A quick observation.

I could not help noticing that China’s imports from Japan fell 16.2pc in December. Imports from Taiwan fell 6.2pc.

The Shanghai Container Freight Index fell 1.4pc to a record low of 919.44 in November, after sliding relentlessly for several months. It has picked up slightly since.

The Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rates for ores, grains, and bulk goods, has fallen 44pc over the last year. Kasper Moller from Maersk in Beijing said weak Chinese demand for iron ore was the key culprit.

Cautionary warning. The BDI index also reflects the shipping glut, so it is not a pure indicator.

However, rail, road, river and air freight volume for the whole of China fell to 31780m tons in November (latest data), from 32340m tons in October. Not a big fall, but still negative. (National Bureau of Statistics of China.)

Chinese electricity use was flat in over the Autumn, with a sharp fall in the (year-on-year) growth rates from 8.9pc in September, to 8pc in October, and 7.7pc in December.

Residential investment has been contracting on a monthly basis, and of course property prices are now falling in all but two of China’s 70 largest cities.

So how did China pull off an economic growth rate of 8.9pc in the fourth quarter?

Beats me.

I strongly suspect that the trade and power data reveal the true state of China’s economy. ... -data.html?

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 7:08 pm
by winston
In China, what you eat tells who you are

In a nation reeling from tainted-food scandals, organic products are mostly reserved for the rich and political elite. Chinese government officials have exclusive suppliers, who do not advertise.

September 16, 2011|

By Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times

Reporting from Beijing — At a glance, it is clear this is no run-of-the-mill farm: A 6-foot spiked fence hems the meticulously planted vegetables and security guards control a cantilevered gate that glides open only to select cars.

"It is for officials only. They produce organic vegetables, peppers, onions, beans, cauliflowers, but they don't sell to the public," said Li Xiuqin, 68, a lifelong Shunyi village resident who lives directly across the street from the farm but has never been inside.

"Ordinary people can't go in there." ... m-20110917

Re: China - Hall of Fame Articles

PostPosted: Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:11 pm
by winston
Children of the Revolution
Nov 26, 2011

China's 'princelings,' the offspring of the communist party elite, are embracing the trappings of wealth and privilege—raising uncomfortable questions for their elders..


One evening early this year, a red Ferrari pulled up at the U.S. ambassador's residence in Beijing, and the son of one of China's top leaders stepped out, dressed in a tuxedo.

Bo Xilai, with his son, at a memorial ceremony held for his father in Beijing, in 2007.
Grandfather, Bo Yibo — Helped lead Mao's forces to victory, only to be purged in the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution. Subsequently rehabilitated.

Son, Bo Guagua — Graduate student at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

Father, Bo Xilai — Party secretary of Chongqing and Politburo member, likely to rise to the Politburo standing committee in 2012.
.Bo Guagua, 23, was expected. He had a dinner appointment with a daughter of the then-ambassador, Jon Huntsman.

The car, though, was a surprise. The driver's father, Bo Xilai, was in the midst of a controversial campaign to revive the spirit of Mao Zedong through mass renditions of old revolutionary anthems, known as "red singing." He had ordered students and officials to work stints on farms to reconnect with the countryside. His son, meanwhile, was driving a car worth hundreds of thousands of dollars and as red as the Chinese flag, in a country where the average household income last year was about $3,300.

Last year, Chinese learned via the Internet that the son of a former vice president of the country—and the grandson of a former Red Army commander—had purchased a $32.4 million harbor-front mansion in Australia. He applied for a permit to tear down the century-old mansion and to build a new villa, featuring two swimming pools connected by a waterfall.

Younger princelings are often seen among the models, actors and sports stars who gather at a strip of nightclubs by the Workers' Stadium in Beijing to show off Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Maseratis.

Others have been spotted talking business over cigars and vintage Chinese liquor in exclusive venues such as the Maotai Club, in a historic house near the Forbidden City.

On a recent afternoon at a new polo club on Beijing's outskirts, opened by a grandson of a former vice premier, Argentine players on imported ponies put on an exhibition match for prospective members. ... 50470.html