Singapore - Hospitality Sector

[LenaHuat]

Here are some fotos of the bay walk that I wrote about:-
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=413659&page=177

Pl note that none of the fotos are posted by me.

[winston]

Not vested. From DBS:-

The hospitality sector is expected to deliver sustainable strong earnings going forward with STB’s 12-13mil tourist arrivals
goal this year looking attainable.

In addition, we expect Singapore’s 2011F gaming revenue to hit USD5bil,+43% from 2010’s revenue of USD3.5bil.

Our picks are CDL HT and Genting Singapore

[winston]

Riding on a surge in tourism arrivals...

What's happened: According to the MasterCard Index of Global Destination Cities, Singapore is expected to be placed amongst the top 10 destination cities worldwide this year in terms of both international arrivals and visitor expenditure.

Visitor numbers is expected to grow by 14.5% yoy to 11.4m, placing it fourth worldwide, while visitor expenditure is expected to grow by nearly 24% to US$10.8m.

What we think: We feel that the strong tourism sector will lift stocks with exposure in the hospitality scene like Ascott REIT (ART; S$1.17; OUTPERFORM; TP S$1.35), CDL Hospitality (CDREIT SP; S$2.05; NEUTRAL; S$2.14), OUE (OUE SP; S$2.96; OUTPERFORM; TP S$4.16) and SATS (SATS SP; S$2.62; NOT RATED).


Source: CIMB

[winston]

Not vested

Property – Singapore

Property Nuggets: Hospitality – On track for another record year

What’s New

Hospitality: 1Q11 visitor arrivals up 15.7%, tourism receipts up 35.7% yoy.

Visitor arrivals for March rose 15.3% yoy to 1.07m, bringing total arrivals for 1Q11 to 3.12m (+15.7% yoy).

March numbers marked the 16th straight month of record visitor arrivals, upholding Singapore’s growing strength as a major tourism hub in Southeast Asia.

Indonesia (18%), China (13%), Malaysia (8%), Australia (7%) and India (6%) were the top five visitor markets during the quarter, accounting for 53% of total arrivals.

Tourism receipts for the quarter also grew 35.7% yoy to S$4.98b, with the bulk of growth coming from the sightseeing and entertainment segment (S$1.19b, +321% yoy) boosted by the two integrated resorts (IR).

Shopping expenditure however registered a modest growth of 13% yoy to S$1.06b.


Hotel RevPAR increased 15.7% yoy, driven by a 14% yoy increase in average room rate (ARR) to S$226.

Hotel occupancy rose 1.3ppt to 85% in 1Q11. Across hotel segments, the economy tier was the top performer with a 30.3% yoy growth in RevPAR (occupancy 80%; ARR S$107) followed by the mid-tier segment (+19.5% yoy).

We forecast room demand CAGR at 8.1% for 2010-13, outstripping supply growth of 6.2%, or 11,656 rooms, over the same period.


Action

We continue to see good value in the hospitality REITs with the next leg of RevPAR growth driven by a further pick-up in ARR on sustained high occupancy levels.

Our top pick is CDL Hospitality Trusts with its Singapore hotels strategically located near the IRs and along the Orchard Road shopping belt.


Sector Catalysts

Positive newsflow on strong growth in visitor arrivals leading to sustained high occupancies and further pick-up in room rates.

Singapore’s growing stature as a major Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions (MICE) destination, medical tourism and education hub.

Source: UOBKH

[winston]

Tourist arrivals in S'pore seen moderating

While tourism has been robust for Singapore in 2011 so far, the industry could see a moderation next year if the weak global economic environment
continues, a DBS Group Research report said, citing CDL Hospitality Trusts
(CDLHT), Ascott Residence Trust (Ascott Reit), the UOL Group and Genting
Singapore as its top stock picks.

'Visitor arrivals growth is likely to moderate in 2012, rather than contract as it did in 2009 given that the majority of visitors are from Asian countries that are seeing positive economic growth,' analyst Derek Tan wrote, adding that the two integrated resorts as well as upcoming attractions such as Gardens by the Bay and the International Cruise Terminal are still likely to fuel tourism.

However, any dampening in sentiment could also affect business travel and the meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE) sector, which
accounted for 27 per cent of all visitors in 2010.

This year, the STB is aiming to reach a record 12-13 million visitor arrivals and $22-24 billion in tourism receipts.

Source: AmFraser

[winston]

Not vested. This analyst is confusing the tourism sector with the expat sector.

Good tourism numbers may not translate to more expats.

Tourists stays in hotels. Expats stays in Serviced Apartments.

Or am I missing something that the tourists nowadays, prefer to stay in long term serviced apartments ?

================================

Property – Hospitality: Resilient serviced residences

Channel checks indicate strong visitor arrivals ahead. Visitor arrivals for August rose 18% yoy to 1.18m (a new record for August) bringing the total arrivals for 8M11 to 8.8m (+15.5% yoy).

Indonesia (19%), China (16%), Malaysia (8%), Australia (6%) and India (5%) were the top five visitor-generating markets for the month accounting for slightly more than half (54%) of the total number.

Our channel checks with hoteliers also indicate strong forward bookings for the December holiday season.


Singapore retains World’s “Top Meetings Destination” in 2010. According to the rankings released by Union Of International Associations, Singapore was the “Top International Meetings City” in 2010, hosting a total of 725 meetings (+5.2% yoy) or about 6.5% of the total number of meetings hosted worldwide.

In 2009, Singapore’s meetings grew 8% yoy despite the global credit crisis. It has already secured about 370 deals (as of Sep 10) which could bring in 345,000 participants in the next few years.

The structural transformation of Singapore’s hospitality industry lends stability to the sector with serviced residences being relatively resilient during downturns.

Our preferred pick for the hospitality sector is Ascott Residence Trust (ART) (SP/BUY/S$1.25) due to its strong positioning in the serviced residences segment coupled with the attractive 6.6% dividend yield.


Source: UOBKH

[winston]

Why would a Chinese visitor want to go to Singapore in September, when they have their Golden Week holiday in October ?

I can bet you that the October numbers on the Chinese tourists will be much higher because wherever I went during the Golden Week holiday, there were Chinese tourists eg. in RWS, in MBS, in Orchard etc.

=============

Singapore registered a -12% mom decline in tourist arrivals in September.

Sep’s 1.033mn visitors are the lowest since Feb this year.

The weaker performance was dragged down by a 43% plunge in visitor arrivals from China when compared with August.

Source: Nomura

[kennynah]

maybe lesser PRC meimeis came over bcos could not get "visa"??

[winston]

Good. Hotel rooms are getting expensive in Singapore. Orchard hotels are Sin$300+ now

SUPPLY OF HOTEL ROOMS MAY RISE 20% BY 2016

19 new hotels likely to enter the market by end‐2013

Hotel room supply in Singapore could grow 20 per cent by 2016 as a potential 9,228 rooms come on‐stream by then, according to property consultancy CBRE Hotels.

Nineteen new hotels with about 4,028 rooms are expected to enter the market by end‐2013, with a further 5,200 rooms from projects in the planning stage expected to materialise by 2016.

This means a potential supply of 9,228 rooms between now and 2016, providing an additional 3.4 million room nights per year by 2016, up 22.4 per cent from 2011.

Source: AmFraser

[winston]

Singapore Property Nuggets: Hospitality: A year of hospitality REITs?

Capitalising on the growing market appetite for the hospitality-based players, a slew of hospitality segment based IPOs are in listing pipeline (Refer Fig. 1).

Two IPOs are currently in their advanced stages - M&L REIT (IPO offering: approximately S$500m) and Ascendas hospitality REIT (IPO offering: approximately S$750m) while other planned hospitality REIT IPOs include those of the Orchard Parade Hotel and the Park Hotel Group.

The combined listing of these IPOs is expected to raise more than S$2b.

While the listing of additional hospitality REITs will help to grow the hospitality sector and strengthen its appeal as a stand-alone asset class, it is likely to put short-term pressure on existing niche players in the segment (eg CDL Hospitality Trusts) as investors get more choices to allocate their capital.

We maintain our preference for Ascott Residence Trust (BUY/S$1.25) over CDL Hospitality Trusts (HOLD/S$1.85) for its relatively high dividend yield of more than 8% and better earning visibility from its long-term master-leases and service agreements guarantees.


Source: UOBKH