China - Housing 06 (Nov 21 - Dec 26)

[winston]

HTSC Cautious on Weak Revival in CN Housing Mkt, Eyes Opportunities of Quality Leading SOEs

2023/11/07

Huatai Securities issued a report on the need to be cautious about the weak recovery of the domestic property market.

In terms of real estate sales, sales growth of the top 100 real estate enterprises in China declined YoY again after June, with a cumulative YoY decline of 11.8% in the first nine months, a weaker performance than the industry as a whole.

With the market adjusting, central/state-owned enterprises still have an advantage over private companies, but their lead narrowed from 92 ppts in April to 24 ppts in September.

On the financing front, net repayments of RMB211.2 billion were made from various financing sources in the first nine months of the year, with corporate financing yet to improve.

Bond maturities in the real estate sector contracted, and the market became more concerned about the cash flows of some mixed-ownership and private real estate enterprises.

On the investment front, the concentration of land acquisition has further increased, with the share of centralised state-owned enterprises declining slightly and leading real estate companies focusing on core cities.

In addition, Huatai expected more cities to implement optimised property policies and form a synergy with the other economic policy packages to drive the economy back to positive territory, as well as stabilising housing price expectations and demand for housing.

The broker is optimistic about quality real estate companies with sufficient value and strong replenishment capacity in mainstream cities.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[behappyalways]

An example of when it comes to China, data is important but also how data can be manipulated is also important.
Many times, govt has policy, but down stream people have creative strategies
https://twitter.com/liqian_ren/status/1 ... 4012177412


Real estate crisis in mainland China raises alarm, shaking economic growth rate
中國大陸房產危機拉警報 撼動經濟成長率｜FOCUS午間新聞 20231109
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9bmSGbCrYZM

[behappyalways]

Turn on a flashlight to find the door! There is no hope of resuming work. Mainland’s petty bourgeoisie women live in unfinished buildings
開手電筒找家門! 復工無望 大陸小資女入住爛尾樓｜TVBS新聞
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4qlfWcUwtUE


China Home Prices Plunge The Most In Eight Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chi ... ight-years

[winston]

China races to end property panic, fill US$446b funding gap

Ramping up pressure on banks to plug an estimated US$446 billion (RM2 trillion) shortfall in funding needed to stabilise the industry and deliver millions of unfinished apartments.

Finalising a draft list of 50 developers eligible for financial support that includes Country Garden Holdings Co and Sino-Ocean Group and indicated a pivot by Beijing to help some of the most distressed builders.

Authorities had guided banks to trim deposit rates three times over the past year to ease their margin pressure, and slashed banks’ reserve requirements twice this year to boost their lending capacity.

Net interest margins of the big state-owned banks dropped to a record low 1.74% at the end of the first half of 2023, below the industry’s 1.8% threshold seen as necessary to maintain a reasonable amount of profitability.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/691026

[winston]

China’s property market meltdown: The picture so far

Crisis stretching for over three years.

The weakened industry fundamentals are expected to continue to drag down the credit quality of rated developers over the next 12 to 18 months,

Source; CAIXIN GLOBAL

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... ure-so-far

[behappyalways]

In "Significant Shift" To Bailing Out Its Sinking Property Sector, China Puts Largest Developer On Rescue "White List"
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/sig ... -developer

[behappyalways]

The mainland housing market explodes again!
The "Zhongzhi Group" is insolvent and the official launches a "white list" to rescue the market

陸房市再爆雷!「中植系」資不抵債 官推「白名單」救市｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞 20231123 @tvbsfocus

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SFiOuhBLX1E

[behappyalways]

China is on the "white list for financing of real estate companies".
Country Garden and Sino-Ocean are rumored to be on the list.
There are as many as 20 million households in unfinished buildings.
Jack Ma's prediction that "house prices are like green onions" has come true.

中國列"房企融資白名單" 傳碧桂園.遠洋入榜 爛尾樓多達2千萬戶 馬雲預言"房價如蔥"成真｜非凡財經新聞｜20231127

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5WWMNXGFf7U

[behappyalways]

Bloomberg: China pressures banks to fill real estate developers’ $14 trillion funding gap

彭博社:中國施壓銀行 填補地產商14兆資金缺口 TVBS文茜的世界財經周報 20231126

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KNoYSSTf4xE

[behappyalways]

Housing prices in mainland China have fallen for four consecutive months and Beijing’s measures to rescue housing have had limited success
中國大陸房價連跌4個月 北京出手救房成效有限｜十點不一樣20231128
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0zIe3v7oqw8


China's home sales
https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook/stat ... 5342123498


Also, the construction sub-component of the NBS official PMI has not contracted even once this year.
Finding that hard to reconcile with the clear downturn in property all year long in other official stats as well as @ChinaBeigeBook's private data
https://twitter.com/shehzadhqazi/status ... 8768907591